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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (6/2)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (6/2)

Even at his gaudy price tag, I’m stoked about using Clayton Kershaw tonight. He headlines the cash games roster below, but this cash games roster has tons of firepower and belongs in GPPs as well. The presence of a different Clayton at a bargain price at SP2 will allow us to spend fairly heavily on bats even with Kershaw commanding a significant salary commitment.

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw (LAD): $13,100 @ Brewers
Kershaw hasn’t been as dominant this year as last, but he set the bar so damn high last year, that’s okay. He was roughed up a bit by the Cubs, but their offense has some talented offensive players who can take advantage of a pitcher when he’s off his game. Kershaw has been in very good form of late otherwise, though, and for the year, he owns a 2.37 ERA (3.09 FIP, 2.92 xFIP, and 3.06 SIERA, per FanGraphs), 0.95 WHIP, 3.4% BB%, 26.5% K%, and 12.2% swinging strike percentage (SwStr%).

The super-stud southpaw is a -220 favorite in a game with an over/under total of 7.5 runs, according to Pinnacle, and his ceiling is massive against a punch-out prone offense. The Brewers are tied for the third highest strikeout rate (25.4%) against lefties this year. They’re also in a bit of a funk ranking tied for 23rd with an 85 wRC+ and a still exploitable 23.3% K%.

Clayton Richard (SD): $5,200 vs. Rockies
Historically, when Clayton Richard has come to mind from a DFS perspective, it’s been to stack against him. That’s not the case tonight. The lefty’s 4.33 ERA is pedestrian, but his 3.97 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, and 3.84 SIERA suggest he’s been better than that. His 4.66 DRA, per Baseball Prospectus, isn’t as impressed with his work, for full disclosure.

Oddsmakers have the Padres as underdogs with the Rockies sitting as -125 favorites, but the game’s over/under total is only 7.5 runs. Richard’s point-scoring potential will be bolstered by his pitcher-friendly home park and a matchup against the visiting Rockies. Colorado has the sixth-highest strikeout rate (23.6%) against lefties this year and rank tied for 19th in wRC+ (86) against them.

They also struggle away from Coors Field with a road wRC+ of 88 and strikeout rate of 23.2%. Richard’s SwStr% isn’t overly impressive at just 8.5%, but his curve and four-seam fastball are put-away pitches. Brooks Baseball credits Richard with an 18.75% whiff percentage on his four-seam fastball and 16.67% on his curve.

Richard’s below-average SwStr% is the product of his reliance on a sinker that has helped him post a juicy 58.1% GB%. He’ll need to do very little to hit value, and there’s wiggle room for plenty of gravy points as well.

Honorable Mentions

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal (LAD): $3,600 @ Brewers
Grandal’s excellent hitting skills have made him a mainstay in the third spot in the order for the Dodgers lately. This season, he has a .377 OBP, .203 ISO, and 143 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and his career marks are quite good against righties as well. On the surface, a matchup with Jimmy Nelson looks like bad news for a left-handed hitter since he’s held them to a .282 wOBA in 2017.

Upon further inspection, Nelson’s .263 BABIP allowed to lefties is helping him a ton, and with zero popups induced and a 37.5% Hard% allowed to them, he’s in store for a rude awakening sooner rather than later. Finally, the left-handed batter park factors at Miller Park are another great reason for slotting in Grandal at catcher on your daily baseball rosters tonight.

Honorable Mention

First Base

Miguel Cabrera (DET): $4,200 vs. White Sox
Miggy is a bargain too good to pass up tonight. Since 2014, he has a .411 OBP, .216 ISO, and 153 wRC+ against southpaws. Even in a year that’s not up to Miggy’s lofty standards, he’s still raking against lefties with a .500 OBP and 50.0% Hard%.

Derek Holland is the opposing pitcher, and while his .328 wOBA allowed to righties this year is worth attacking on its own merit, he’s actually been incredibly lucky to keep it that low. Holland has coughed up a 44.8% FB% and 41.1% Hard% to righties, yet he’s only surrendered eight homers to the 214 he’s faced. His 12.3% HR/FB% is simply not sustainable if he continues to give up so much hard contact in the air.

Honorable Mentions

Second Base

Brandon Phillips (ATL): $3,700 @ Reds
If you want to get hyped up about some revenge narrative nonsense, go for it, but that’s not why Phillips gets the nod at the keystone position. Bronson Arroyo has ceded a .571 slugging, .379 wOBA and eight homers to the 130 right-handed batters he’s faced this year. He’s shot.

Furthermore, in Phillips’ last three years with the Reds, he recorded a rock solid .326 OBP, .141 ISO, and 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at Great American Ball Park. The game’s over/under total of 10 runs is quite inviting, too, in what’s nearly a pick ’em.

Honorable Mentions

Third Base

Manny Machado (BAL): $3,900 vs. Red Sox
This is the least cash game-worthy hitter in the lineup. Machado’s struggling this year, but his batted-ball profile isn’t a wreck, and the depressed salary is welcome. Since 2014, he has a .338 OBP, .242 ISO, and 129 wRC+ versus righties at home.

Tonight’s righty he opposes, Rick Porcello, isn’t pitching much like the guy who took home American League Cy Young Award honors last season. Right-handed batters have knocked him around for a .342 OBP, .476 SLG, .350 wOBA, and 39.8% Hard% this year.

Honorable Mention

Shortstop

Brandon Crawford (SF): $3,100 @ Phillies
Crawford has the misfortune of playing his home games in a run and homer-suppressing home ballpark. He’s made it a point to take advantage of his chances away from AT&T, though. Since 2014, he has a .329 OBP, .204 ISO, and 110 wRC+ against righties on the road.

Citizens Bank Park is an especially good venue for him to put his power to use with a left-handed batter park factor of 115 for homers, per StatCorner’s three-year rolling average. Add facing Jerad Eickhoff to the list of positives as well since the righty has allowed a .358 OBP, .496 SLG, and .358 wOBA against lefties this year.

Honorable Mention

Outfield

Lorenzo Cain (KC): $3,400 vs. Indians
Cain is the least exciting of the three outfielders, and that’s good news since he’s a solid value with plenty to like. He calls a good lineup spot home, and he squares off with righty Josh Tomlin. Tomlin’s allowed a .328 OBP, .513 SLG, .357 wOBA, and 26.7% LD% to righties this year.

Cain’s been a literally average hitter against righties since 2014 with a 100 wRC+ against them, but he’s been better than that this year with a .378 OBP and 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in 2017. The sample isn’t large enough to have stabilized, but Cain’s 26.0% LD% still stands out when matched up with Tomlin’s LD% allowed to righties.

J.D. Martinez (DET): $5,000 vs. White Sox
Martinez basically hammers everyone, but lefties have been touched up by him for a .369 OBP, .282 ISO, and 155 wRC+ since 2014. Among batters who have totaled a minimum of 300 plate appearances against southpaws since 2014, Martinez ranks fifth in ISO and 12th in wRC+.

Remember how I mentioned in Miggy’s write up that Holland’s been lucky to post a .328 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters this year? There’s a good chance Cabrera and Martinez have a hand in correcting his good fortune tonight.

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA): $4,800 vs. Diamondbacks
Stanton is a fire-breathing monster against lefties. Using the same 300 plate appearance minimum against lefties since 2014 as I did for Martinez, Stanton leads the way in wRC+ (187) and ISO (.368) while checking in tied for seventh in OBP (.406) — coincidentally right behind Miggy. Patrick Corbin is ill-equipped to slow down Stanton since he’s yielded a .372 OBP, .534 SLG, and .383 wOBA to righties this season.

Honorable Mentions

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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