Nine games await us for the main slate as we kick off a new week. Temperatures regarding throughout most of the country, and outside of Minnesota, precipitation doesn’t look to be an issue.
As of this morning, every contest features a game total of at least 9.5 runs, so this could wind up being a high-scoring evening. Let’s take a look at a lineup for DraftKings.
Check out today’s MLB Moonshot contest at DraftKings 
Pitcher
Jacob deGrom (NYM): $10,200 vs. CHC
deGrom is coming off of two straight duds, and now he will face an underachieving lineup who could wake up at any time. This certainly introduces a bit of risk, but I’m willing to roll the dice at a relative discount tonight. The home runs (1.5 HR/9) and walks (3.75 BB/9) are a bit of a concern for deGrom, but I’m willing to pin some of the issues with home runs on an elevated HR/FB rate (20%).
The walks are still worrisome, but with his velocity up and a career-high strikeout rate (11.75 K/9), there’s still a lot to like going forward. Toss in an xFIP of 3.24 (ERA is 4.75) and a BABIP of .350, and there’s reason to be optimistic about deGrom’s chances for improvement ahead.
The Cubs rank 24th against right-handed pitching with a 22.3% strikeout rate this season, and they’ve nearly mirrored that over the last 30 days. I’m hoping a lot of owners flock to Stephen Strasburg and Rick Porcello tonight, which should keep deGrom’s ownership levels down just a bit.
Jameson Taillon (PIT): $6,800 vs. COL
Taillon is a great buy tonight, as he makes his return from the disabled list after looking fairly impressive over three rehab starts. The Rockies have been a slightly above average team in terms of wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the road this season, but the discount in Taillon helps to offset some of that risk.
His velocity was up in three starts during his 14 IP during rehab, and he recorded 21 strikeouts over that span. He makes for a strong tournament play at this price, and the savings allows you to spend elsewhere, while still capturing plenty of upside.
Other Notables
- Stephen Strasburg (WAS): $12,700 vs. ATL
- Rick Porcello (BOS): $8,600 vs. PHI
- Masahiro Tanaka (NYY): $7,800 @ LAA (GPP)
- Luis Perdomo (SD): $6,300 vs. CIN (very risky GPP)
Catcher
Welington Castillo (BAL): $3,500 @ CWS
Castillo is two games removed from a second stint on the disabled list, and after playing twice over the weekend in New York, I’m hoping the rust is slowly going away. The Orioles are struggling across the board right now, and I think it’s their offense that’s going to have to wake up and carry the team. They are a dangerous bunch, but they’ve clearly not performed to their potential to this point. Enter tonight’s opposing pitcher, Mike Pelfrey, who can help cure the blues.
Pelfrey sports a .239 BABIP and an xFIP pushing five, which when coupled with a strikeout rate of just 5.4 K/9, could mean more rocky starts are on the horizon. This is a good park for right-handed power, and I don’t mind taking a flier on someone with a little pop like Castillo as a result.
Other Notables
- Gary Sanchez (NYY): $5,000 @ LAA (GPP)
- Brian McCann (HOU): $4,400 vs. TEX (GPP)
First Base
Chris Davis (BAL): $4,300 @ CWS
I’m going to be picking on Mike Pelfrey a lot tonight, despite the fact that it’s with a team that is fresh off of a weekend thrashing at the hands of a division rival. Davis has massive power upside, and he will have a chance to display that tonight against a mediocre pitcher.
Other Notables
- Joey Votto (CIN): $5,200 @ SD (GPP)
- Matt Holliday (NYY): $4,700 @ LAA (GPP)
- Mitch Moreland (BOS): $4,500 vs. PHI
- Jose Abreu (CWS): $4,100 vs. BAL (GPP)
Second Base
Yolmer Sanchez (CWS): $3,400 vs. BAL
Sanchez has been shifted all over the batting order as of late, and while he’s not a particularly exciting hitter, he does do a good job of getting on base, which could translate to extra scoring chances. I’m not enamored with Wade Miley, and I don’t mind utilizing Sanchez as a cheap part of a White Sox stack.
Other Notables
- Jose Altuve (HOU): $4,700 vs. TEX (GPP)
- Daniel Murphy (WAS): $4700 vs. ATL
- Starlin Castro (NYY): $4,600 @ LAA (GPP)
Third Base
Todd Frazier (CWS): $4,400 vs. BAL
Don’t look now, but Frazier has collected 14 hits over his last 37 at-bats (.378 AVG) along with hitting three home runs over that span. This is a welcome sight after such a dreadful start to the season, and he stands to keep it rolling tonight.
Wade Miley is allowing a 35.2% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season, and after a surprising start to the season, he continues to struggle as of late. This is a great scoring environment tonight in Chicago, so I don’t mind taking a chance on Frazier, as all of the contextual factors line up for another strong outing.
Other Notables
- Miguel Sano (MIN): $4,600 vs. SEA (GPP)
- Josh Harrison (PIT): $4,200 vs. COL
Shortstop
Trea Turner (WAS): $5,300 vs. ATL
Turner costs a pretty penny tonight, and while he won’t have the platoon advantage over Mike Foltynewicz, it’s the stolen base upside I’m targeting here. The Braves are not good at preventing stolen bases, and with Foltynewicz having inconsistent command at times, there could be some chances to get on base for Turner, and that’s when he can get his wheels churning.
Other Notables
- Carlos Correa (HOU): $4,700 vs. TEX (GPP)
- Xander Bogaerts (BOS): $4,600 vs. PHI
- Tim Anderson (CWS): $3,600 vs. BAL (GPP)
- Jordy Mercer (PIT): $3,600 vs. COL (preferably if top six in order)
Outfielders
Avisail Garcia (CWS): $4,500 vs. BAL
Garcia will hit clean up for an offense who ranks first in wRC+ against lefties on the season, and send over the last 30 days. Garcia is a big reason for that, as he’s punished left-handed pitching this season.
He’s hit southpaws well throughout his career as well, so despite some elevated numbers in 2017, it’s not like he’s been a slouch in the past. I touched on Wade Miley’s troubles with right-handed hitters, and those issues could get him into a lot of trouble in a park that’s conducive to right-handed hitters.
Adam Jones (BAL): $3,800 @ CWS
Jones is only hitting .231 over his last 39 at-bats, but he does have three home runs and seven runs batted in over that span. He will get a good park for right-handed power tonight, and w l face an uninspiring pitcher in Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey is better against same-handed hitters, but with a low strikeout rate, I’m not avoiding him, especially given the fact that he appears headed for some negative regression moving forward.
Seth Smith (BAL): $3,800 @ CWS
As a leadoff hitter on the road against a bad pitcher, Smith could be looking at four or five plate appearances tonight. I noted earlier that the Baltimore offense is struggling, but they do have a chance to get things going against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey’s hard minus soft contact rate to lefties sits at 21.5%, which could mean trouble against an offense that probably has some frustrations to release after a weekend thumping at the hands of the Yankees.
Other Notables
- Charlie Blackmon (COL): $5,600 @ PIT (GPP)
- Aaron Judge (NYY): $5,500 @ LAA (GPP)
- Bryce Harper (WAS): $5,400 vs. ATL
- George Springer (HOU): $4,900 vs. TEX (GPP)
- Jay Bruce (NYM): $4,700 vs. CHC (GPP)
- Shin-Soo Choo (TEX): $3,900 @ HOU
- Billy Hamilton (CIN): $3,900 @ SD (GPP)
- Mark Trumbo (BAL): $3,700 @ CWS (GPP)
My Lineup
- SP – Jacob deGrom (NYM): $10,200 vs. CHC
- SP – Jameson Taillon (PIT): $6,800 vs. COL
- C – Welington Castillo (BAL): $3,500 @ CWS
- 1B – Chris Davis (BAL): $4,300 @ CWS
- 2B – Yolmer Sanchez (CWS): $3,400 vs. BAL
- 3B – Todd Frazier (CWS): $4,400 vs. BAL
- SS – Trea Turner (WAS): $5,300 vs. ATL
- OF – Avisail Garcia (CWS): $4,500 vs. BAL
- OF – Adam Jones (BAL): $3,800 @ CWS
- OF – Seth Smith (BAL): $3,800 @ CWS
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
