DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Monday (6/19)

Jun 19, 2017

Kyle Seager and the Mariners should put up a bunch of runs tonight

There are 11 games on the main slate for Monday, and there’s a little bit of everything in terms of the matchups and available players. Weather could play a role in up to three games, so be sure to monitor this as the day rolls along. Let’s take a look at a lineup for DraftKings.

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Pitcher

Jon Lester (CHC): $10,500 vs. SD
Lester will face a San Diego squad who has fared better against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days (17th in wRC+), but their strikeout rate over that span has spiked to 30.1%. Lester is coming off of his second 10 strikeout performance of the season, and he’s in a great spot to continue mowing hitters down this evening. While he’s certainly not Clayton Kershaw, Lester does a decent job at preventing runs, and he should breeze through this weak lineup at home.

Brad Peacock (HOU): $8,100 @ OAK
Peacock continues to strikeout hitters at an elite rate, and he will face an Oakland squad who has a propensity for strikeouts against right-handed pitching (24.8% on the season). Peacock has seen a slight uptick in velocity this season, but it looks like a sharp increase in his slider effectiveness is behind his surge in strikeouts. His SwStr rate is above 13% this season, so you have to love his stock for tournament play against a team that whiffs at such a high rate.

Other Notables

Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy (TEX): $3,200 vs. TOR
Vegas is expecting all sorts of offense from this game tonight, as the total currently sits at 10.5 runs. Marco Estrada has been vulnerable to right-handed hitters this season, allowing a .345 wOBA and seven home runs in 44.1 IP. Lucroy is hitting well right now, as he’s collected 12 hits over his last 10 games (.316 AVG), including a home run. The return of Carlos Gomez has bumped Lucroy down in the batting order, which obviously doesn’t help his value, but the price tag helps to offset some of that risk.

Other Notables

First Base

Justin Smoak (TOR): $4,800 @ TEX
Smoak arrives in Arlington on quite a roll, as he’s collected 19 hits over his last 61 plate appearances (.339 AVG), to go along with seven home runs and 11 runs batted in. Austin Bibens-Dirx has been playing with fire, and this could very well be his last start in the rotation if he can’t keep things together. He’s got an xFIP that’s well over two runs higher than his actual ERA, and a low strikeout rate that doesn’t support a high strand rate. Smoak and the Blue Jays have an implied run total in the mid-5s, so I see no reason that he cannot continue swinging a hot bat tonight.

Other Notables

Second Base

Rougned Odor (TEX): $4,500 vs. TOR
Assuming Odor isn’t throwing haymakers tonight, he represents a very good option at the position. He has been a disappointment this season, but Odor has really cranked things up over his last 10 games, as he’s posted a .325 AVG to go along with a 1.107 OPS. Marco Estrada is a fly ball pitcher, and that leaves him vulnerable to power, which could get him into trouble tonight.

Other Notables

Third Base

Kyle Seager (SEA): $3,400 vs. DET
Seager continues to underwhelm at the plate, but he draws a plus matchup at home against Anibal Sanchez, which could be just what he needs to get going. Sanchez was in Triple-A before his recent call-up, and his innings out of the bullpen prior to being demoted were less than desirable. The Mariners have been pegged with a high implied run total, and Seager provides affordable access to that offense.

Other Notables

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki (TOR): $3,200 @ TEX
The Blue Jays have an implied team total of 5.51 runs right now, which shows little faith that Austin Bibens-Dirx can continue to find success. A glance at his peripheral statistics supports that notion, as he carries an unsustainable .189 BABIP into this matchup, and an 83.3% LOB rate. A low strikeout pitcher (4.74 K/9) typically isn’t able to strand runners at that high of a rate, and with an xFIP over two full runs higher than his actual ERA, the wheels could fall off soon. Tulowitzki isn’t doing anything special by any means, but he is a cheap way to get access to an offense with a high run total.

Other Notables

Outfielders

Nelson Cruz (SEA): $4,800 vs. DET
Cruz has four home runs in just 12 career at-bats against Anibal Sanchez, and he is a strong tournament play due to the matchup. Sanchez is a shred of his former self, and there’s not much confidence that he can turn things around in Seattle tonight. He’s allowed six home runs in just 11 IP to right-handed hitters this evening, so be sure to have exposure to this juicy matchup tonight.

Colby Rasmus (TBR): $3,900 vs. CIN
Rasmus is reasonably priced, especially given the way he’s been hitting as of late. He’s got 12 hits over his last 10 games (.364 AVG), to go along with a 1.007 OPS during that span. The Rays are a great offense, and they should be able to have their way with Scott Feldman this evening.

Seth Smith (BAL): $3,800 @ CWS
Smith is a speedster whose value is derived from getting on base and stealing, and he’s got a great chance to do that atop a dangerous Tampa Bay lineup. Scott Feldman is about as mediocre as they come in terms of starting pitchers, and with him being vulnerable to lefties, Smith should be in a position to produce tonight.

Other Notables

My Lineup

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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.


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