It’s a Clayton Kershaw slate, and he’s my top pick at starting pitcher tonight. He’ll be a popular play, as he always is, and he’ll be joined by some other chalky options. Given the ownership rates I’m expecting for the bulk of the lineup below, this roster has cash game written all over it. It does have a fairly high ceiling, though, so feel free to stick it in GPPs as well.
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Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw (LAD): $12,500 vs. Rockies
Kershaw was human in his last start coughing up six earned runs on a staggering four homers to the Mets, but he lasted 6.1 innings and allowed only seven baserunners overall while punching out 10. In other words, it’s not as if there were no positives to glean from his messy turn. In 15 starts totaling 103.1 innings, Kershaw owns a 2.61 ERA (3.55 FIP, 2.96 xFIP, and 3.12 SIERA, according to FanGraphs, and a 2.91 DRA, per Baseball Prospectus), 0.93 WHIP, 4.3% BB%, 28.8% K%, and 12.5% SwStr%. While he’s pitching at mere mortal levels this year, Kershaw remains an elite pitcher. Tonight, he and the Dodgers are -244 favorites in a game with an over/under total of just seven runs, according to Pinnacle. The Rockies represent a plus matchup for the veteran southpaw, too. Colorado ranks 17th in wRC+ (92) against lefties this year and have punched out at a 23.7% clip. They also struggle on the road ranking 21st in wRC+ (88) while striking out at an exploitable 23.5% rate.
Dinelson Lamet (SDP) : $6,800 vs. Tigers
Lamet might seem like an odd choice for cash games — or really any games — with a 7.50 ERA, but his 3.91 xFIP and 3.17 SIERA are far more palatable than his ERA. Lamet actually has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher on this slate at 34.6%, and it’s backed by a gaudy 14.2% SwStr%. There are two reasons that primarily contribute to his inclusion as the SP2 on this squad. The first is that he draws the Tigers in San Diego. Detroit ranks tied for 22nd in wRC+ (85) on the road while punching out at a 24.3% rate. The second reason is that Detroit’s lineup is righty heavy, namely their best hitters. Lefties have torched Lamet for a .463 wOBA, but righties have been tied up with just a .248 wOBA and a 42.6% K%. Even though he’s getting hammered by lefties, he has tallied a 28.3% K% against them, so there’s hope for him making improvements or at least offsetting some of the damage they do. In five starts, Lamet has scored 23 or more points on DraftKings in three, and even a disastrous start against the Royals in which he allowed seven earned runs was somewhat salvaged by six punchouts (5.1 fantasy points overall).
Honorable Mentions
- Tyler Chatwood (COL): $7,400 @ Dodgers
- Lance Lynn (STL): $7,100 vs. Pirates
Catcher
Cameron Rupp (PHI) : $2,600 @ Diamondbacks
Rupp is a repeat visitor to this piece after getting the nod on yesterday’s GPP team. He draws a much tougher assignment against Robbie Ray tonight, but Rupp’s .362 OBP, .258 ISO, and 142 wRC+ against lefties since 2014 is more than you should get for the tiny salary commitment he requires. Add in dreamy park factors at Chase Field, and his case for usage as a punt is quite is easy to make.
Honorable Mentions
- Alex Avila (DET): $3,800 @ Padres
- Buster Posey (SF): $3,600 vs. Mets
First Base
Matt Carpenter (STL) : $3,800 vs. Pirates
I went back and forth between Carpenter and Gonzalez, but the $300 salary discount provided by using Carpenter helped flesh out an outfield I like better than the roster constructed using Gonzalez. Anyway, Carpenter’s opponent, Gerrit Cole, has ceded a .574 SLG and .369 wOBA to lefties, making him a soft target for the first baseman. For Carpenter’s part, he’s pretty damn good against righties, too. Since 2014, he owns a .385 OBP, .207 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against righties. He’s been even better against them this year, too, with a .389 OBP, .254 ISO, and 138 wRC+. Furthermore, he’s in good form with a .381 OBP, .204 ISO and 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Honorable Mention
- Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $4,100 @ Mariners
Second Base
Brandon Drury (ARI) : $4,300 vs. Phillies
Drury gets a right-handed pitcher at home tonight, and he’s done a lot of damage under those circumstances in his career. Since reaching the Majors in 2015, he’s ripped off a .347 OBP, .260 ISO, and 156 wRC+ against righties at Chase Field. As an added bonus, Ben Lively has ceded a .544 SLG and .369 wOBA to the 62 righties he’s faced in his rookie season.
Honorable Mention
- Jose Altuve (HOU): $5,100 @ Mariners
Third Base
Jake Lamb (ARI) : $5,400 vs. Phillies
I’m running it back at third base again tonight. Yesterday I suggested using Lamb and failed to include any honorable mentions, and I’m doing the same tonight. Since breaking out in a big way last year, he’s tallied a .368 OBP, .311 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at Chase Field.
Shortstop
Brandon Crawford (SFG) : $2,800 vs. Mets
This is little more than a punt. Crawford will hold the platoon advantage as a left-handed batter facing righty Jacob deGrom, and he frequently hits in the heart of the order against righties. I’m not enamored with the big-ticket items at the position, so the things working in Crawford’s favor are plenty good enough to justify running him out as a punt. If he’s out of the lineup, I’d advocate continuing to use this as a punt spot.
Outfield
Andrew Benintendi (BOS) : $4,300 vs. Angels
The Red Sox are -172 favorites in a game with an over/under total of 10 runs. You want exposure to that, and Benintendi is a good piece of the action who also isn’t terribly expensive. The left-handed hitting outfielder has bounced around the lineup a bit, but wherever he hits is typically a fantasy-friendly lineup spot. Since reaching The Show last year, he owns a .353 OBP .201 ISO, and 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Also, the righty he’s facing, JC Ramirez, has been creamed by lefties allowing a .358 OBP .590 SLG, and .393 wOBA to them.
Cameron Maybin (LAA) : $3,900 @ Red Sox
Even as sizable underdogs, the Angels are projected to do their share of scoring. Maybin is the spark plug atop the order for the Angels, and he’s been excellent this year and unconscious of late. Over the last 30 days, Maybin has reeled off a .434 OBP, .258 ISO, and 181 wRC+. Maybin had an impressive but injury-shortened 2016 with the Tigers before continuing his excellence this year, and since last season, he has a .388 OBP and 120 wRC+ against southpaws. Maybin will likely be a very popular option given his affordable salary and hot streak, and I see no value in fading him in cash games.
Jay Bruce (NYM) : $3,600 @ Giants
The park factors at AT&T Park won’t do Bruce any favors, but that’s really the only negative. A matchup with Johnny Cueto isn’t as daunting as it might seem since the righty is allowing a .478 SLG and .331 wOBA to left-handed batters this year. Bruce has been an above average hitter against righties throughout his career and has a .316 OBP, .237 ISO, and 111 wRC+ against them since 2014, but he’s been excellent against them this year with a .367 OBP, .328 ISO, and 156 wRC+. The streaky outfielder is also running hot lately with a .353 OBP, .287 ISO, and 144 wRC+ over the last 30 days. All in all, he’s an easy pick at a bargain salary.
Honorable Mentions
- Michael Conforto (NYM): $3,900 @ Giants
- Hunter Renfroe (SD): $3400 vs. Tigers
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
