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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Tuesday (6/27)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Tuesday (6/27)

There’s no shortage of electric-armed aces to pick from tonight. I’m in the mood to fade the cream of the crop for a pair of high-ceiling alternatives who are both under $9,000. By fading the top arms on the slate, the roster constructed below was able to squeeze in a few extra big bats for the type of ceiling that jostles for a top spot in GPPs. In addition to the two arms I’m suggesting on this particular roster, there are a few more arms than usual who stand out as strong alternatives and are included in the honorable mentions. Of course, because the lineup is constructed with bigger bats on it, the 5-figure arms will not be included as honorable mentions. Simply put, rostering them will require major changes to the structure of the roster, and including the pricier arms in the honorable mentions would be a disingenuous move as a result.This doesn’t mean I don’t recognize the upside of guys like Scherzer, Carlos Martinez, and Luis Severino. It simply means they don’t fit this particular roster.

Also, unlike any of the rosters I’ve presented before, this team features a pair of 3-man stacks from two different teams. They’re the 1-3 hitters for each of those teams, and they’re the backbone of the roster. As a result, there will be no honorable mentions at those positions (with the exception of the outfield, since only two of three outfield spots are occupied by members of the stack).

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Pitcher

James Paxton (SEA): $8,700 vs. Phillies

Paxton’s last time on the hill got off to a promising start before unraveling. Overall, he allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in 5.1 innings against the Tigers at Safeco Field. He carried a high ownership rate despite poor showings in his three prior turns, and he’s been more bad than good since his return from the disabled list. Having said that, a matchup with the Phillies will drum up some interest and ownership since Philadelphia ranks tied for 23rd in wRC+ (83) against lefties and dead last in wRC+ (72) on the road, according to FanGraphs. In addition to their poor wRC+ on the road, Philadelphia has struck out in 23.4% of their plate appearances, providing the flame-throwing Paxton ample upside. Speaking of flame throwing, Paxton’s four-seam fastball’s average velocity was back over 96 mph (96.34 mph, to be exact) in his last start after two starts of it sitting a bit below 96 mph, per Brooks Baseball. The southpaw streamlined his pitch mix to just three pitches (four-seamer, curve, and cutter) in his last start, and he tallied a whopping 17 whiffs on 101 pitches. His swing-and-miss stuff was on display even if his final line was poor. The game’s over/under total is only 8.5 runs and the Mariners are command -176 favorites, according to Pinnacle. Oddsmakers have a favorable outlook for the M’s and Paxton, and so do I. While I noted he’ll drum up some ownership as a result of his juicy matchup, I’m not sure it will be as high as it should be for a guy who flat out dominated prior to a DL stint and has the PITCHf/x data that suggests he could be on his way to returning to that form.

Dan Straily (MIA): $8,500 vs. Mets

Unlike Paxton, Straily has what could be a tough matchup. The game’s over/under total of 9.5 runs provides some reason for pause, and the Marlins are -150 favorites, which is decent but not great. The Mets rank tied for seventh in wRC+ (104) against righties, second in wRC+ (118) on the road, and sixth in wRC+ (127) over the last 14 days. Again, it’s not exactly an easy matchup for Straily, but he’s pitching quite well, and the matchup plus his non-bargain price point should serve to depress his ownership quite a bit. The result is an intriguing contrarian pick. Straily got off to a slow start in the strikeout department with only 11 through his first three starts spanning 17 innings, but he’s since struck out six or more batters in five of seven starts. Over the last 30 days, he owns a 26.9% K% and 12.6% SwStr% that supports his sterling strikeout rate. He’s also not issuing many free passes in that time frame with a 2.5% BB%, and he’s twirled a 2.70 ERA (2.70 FIP, 3.14 xFIP, and 3.19 SIERA). The 28-year-old righty has also been a beast at home in his first year with the Marlins tallying a 2.17 ERA (3.27 FIP and 4.50 xFIP), 0.99 WHIP, 8.9% BB%, and 25.1% K%.

Honorable Mentions

Catcher

Russell Martin (TOR): $3,700 vs. Orioles

Here’s the first member of one of this team’s stacks. Martin has been an above average hitter in same-handed matchups tallying a .349 OBP, .183 ISO, and 116 wRC+ since 2014. His numbers against righties this season are strong as well with a .385 OBP, .160 ISO, and 115 wRC+, and he’s been in good form of late with a .415 OBP, .250 ISO, and 147 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Toronto’s number-two hitter is in a great spot to rack up fantasy points if the game plays out as oddsmakers expect with an over/under total of 10 runs and the Blue Jays -163 favorites. Furthermore, Martin and his two right-handed teammates included below will benefit from Kevin Gausman’s almost unreal struggles with righties. Gausman has allowed a .418 OBP, .571 SLG, and .418 wOBA to 225 right-handed batters faced this year.

First Base

Carlos Santana (CLE): $3,200 vs. Rangers

Another one of the high totals on the slate is in Cleveland where the Indians are -165 favorites in a game with an over/under total of 10 runs. Santana’s lineup spot has bounced around between 4-6, but he hit fifth the last time they faced a righty. The switch-hitter has only been a couple ticks above average against righties this year with a 102 wRC+, but since 2014, he owns a .356 OBP, .222 ISO, and 121 wRC+. His above average hitting against righties alone would be worth his tiny salary commitment, but when you factor in the park factors at Progressive Field  and a non-intimidating matchup with Tyson Ross, he’s a steal. However, if you do spin down to one of the cheaper honorable mention arms, this is the position I’d be most inclined to spin up to one of the honorable mentions below.

Honorable Mentions

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia (BOS): $3,500 vs. Twins

Here’s the start of stack number two. The Red Sox are -185 favorites at home and the game’s over/under total of 10.5 runs is the highest on the slate. Opposing starter Hector Santiago has been awful this year with a 5.26 ERA in 13 appearances (12 starts) and advanced metrics all higher than his ERA. This will be his first start since hitting the disabled list earlier in the month. For Pedroia’s part, he’s a solid hitter against lefties with a .365 OBP and 115 wRC+ against them since 2014.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson (TOR): $4,100 vs. Orioles

Donaldson will probably be the chalkiest hitter on the slate, but that’s for good reason. Since joining the Blue Jays in 2015, the former American League Most Valuable Player has torched righties at the Rogers Centre with a .392 OBP, .319 ISO, and 169 wRC+. Considering Gausman’s struggles with righties, he’s unlikely to have any answers for Donaldson.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts (BOS): $5,000 vs. Twins

Pedroia’s double-play partner up the middle is an even better hitter against lefties than the diminutive second baseman and has a .374 OBP, .140 ISO, and 124 wRC+ against southpaws since 2014. His numbers rise to a .395 OBP, .169 ISO, and 135 wRC+ when facing a lefty at Fenway Park since 2014.

Outfield

Mookie Betts (BOS): $5,100 vs. Twins

Betts is the table setter leading off for the Red Sox, and since reaching The Show, he has a .335 OBP, .210 ISO, and 122 wRC+ against lefties. Like Bogaerts, he’s even more dangerous at home against southpaws and has a .354 OBP, .251 ISO, and 139 wRC+ in 192 plate appearances against lefties at Fenway Park in his career.

Jose Bautista (TOR): $3,900 vs. Orioles

Bautista rounds out the Blue Jays stack as another right-handed slugger. Toronto recently bumped him to the top of the order, and he remains a thorn in the side of righties this year with a .364 OBP, .218 ISO, and 123 wRC+. If you prefer a bigger sample, he’s been even better against righties since 2014 with a .379 OBP, .247 ISO, and 141 wRC+.

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA): $4,100 vs. Mets

The only non-stack member of the outfield is Stanton, and because he’s under priced, I suspect he’ll be chalky. The elite power hitter has a plus matchup with Robert Gsellman. The sophomore righty has ceded a .368 OBP, .525 SLG, and .376 wOBA to righties. And while Stanton is one of the game’s elite hitters against lefties, he’s no slouch against righties with a .349 OBP, .257 ISO, and 132 wRC+ against righties since 2014. The occasionally strikeout prone bopper is also in the midst of a hot streak with a .384 OBP, .309 ISO, and 146 wRC+ over the last 30 days, adding further incentive use him, not that you should have needed it.

Honorable Mentions

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