Welcome to this Monday’s edition of MLB value plays for DraftKings. Today is National Moonshine Day, but before you crack open the mason jar of bootleg hooch, let’s focus on some plays for your bargain hunting pleasure. This evening offers a lean seven-game slate with a fair amount of low-priced options and surprisingly decent pitching, pretty much eliminating the need to punt anywhere.
Keep in mind, these are simply players who have a decent shot to outperform their salary or are simply mispriced. They aren’t meant as correlations, just money saving options. Let’s go!
Check out today’s MLB Moonshot contest at DraftKings 
Pitcher
J.A. Happ (TOR): $7,300 @ OAK
After a strong 2016, the consensus opinion on Happ is he pitched way over his head. To be fair, his 3.07 SIERA & 2.93 xFIP coming into June are far better than his numbers last year. I’m all over him as a slight road dog in pitching-friendly Oakland versus the A’s bottom-five offense that Ks 25% of the time.
Oakland has some sneaky bats today but only based on pricing (more on them in a moment). Happ is cheap enough to play with confidence today with major strikeout upside.
Eddie Butler (CHC): $5,400 vs. MIA
Butler has a nice matchup against the Marlins. The fish struggle to manufacture runs on a regular basis. Mix these challenges with Butler’s dirt cheap price tag and that’s a point of interest for me.
Butler doesn’t have very good indicators (or any stats in particular) that excite you, but I expect a much-improved outing by limiting the walks today. He’s in consideration in GPP only for the sole purpose of stacking Astros with other expensive bats you want while being able to pair him with a top-shelf arm.
Other Notables
- Junior Guerra (MIL): $7,600 vs. SF
- Sean Manaea (OAK): $7,800 vs. TOR
Catcher
Josh Phegley (OAK): $2,700 vs. TOR
Phegley isn’t the sexiest name out there, but on a seven-game slate, you can’t do much better for a cheap backstop for tournaments. He carries a .219 ISO & .301 wOBA against LHP on 32 trips to the plate. Small sample size, yes, but he’s not getting much playing time this year compared to struggling teammate Stephen Vogt.
If Vogt gets the nod, stay away and pivot to Sal Perez. In cash games, Perez is the play if you should have that extra $200 available, plug him in.
Other Notables
- Salvador Perez (KC): $2,900 vs. HOU
First Base
Matt Adams (ATL): $3,700 vs. PHI
Adams is enjoying his new surroundings in Atlanta. While the sample size is too small to officially label SunTrust a “hitters park,” it certainly has played well to lefty power & lefty pull hitters so far. Big City went deep in back-to-back games to start his Braves tenure and clubbed a pair of dingers in Saturday’s win at Cincy.
He’s back home Monday versus a righty, making his .250 ISO, .363 wOBA & 126 wRC+ against RHP a good play, even at his peak salary. Don’t forget he’s also OF eligible.
Other Notables
- Matt Carpenter (STL): $3,700 @ CIN
Second Base
Chad Pinder (OAK): $2,700 vs. TOR (also SS eligible)
Pinder ranked in the top five in both average exit velocity and batted ball distance as recently as early last week. Whether you’re a StatCast guy or not, that’s hard to ignore. Even though he’s fallen off a bit, he’s still squaring the ball up hard, ranking third behind only Aaron Judge and J.D. Martinez in barrels per plate appearance.
With good, hard contact and swinging strikes, he is as likely to go yard as he is to whiff three times, making him GPP gold and cash game kryptonite…but that price though!
Other Notables
- Jonathan Villar (MIL): $3,500 vs. SF
Third Base
Logan Forsythe (LAD): $3,500 vs. WAS (also 2B eligible)
One glance at Forsythe’s season numbers and you may automatically dismiss him. He’s been hurt and dreadful at the plate since coming back from the DL. That being said, he’s always been and still is elite against lefties.
This year is the same with a .200 ISO, stunning .503 wOBA & 222 wRC+ versus southpaws. The 2017 sample isn’t big because of the injury, but he’s an under-the-radar pivot off of higher-priced bats and also can be played at the keystone as a sneaky pivot from Villar if desired.
Other Notables
- Jedd Gyorko (STL): $3,900 @ CIN
Shortstop
Alcides Escobar (KC): $2,300 vs. HOU
Truth is, I don’t like Escobar. He has zero power, none. However, he’s a super cheap leadoff hitter against Mike Fiers, whose specialty is giving up homers to righties, so this is more of a “get some exposure targeting against Fiers” play. Half the balls in play against the appropriately-named gas can are flyballs; 35% of those travel over the fence.
Think about that…that means he’s basically guaranteed to give up two bombs. If (emphatic “if”) he runs into one at $2,300, you’ll be sitting pretty.
Other Notables
- Freddy Galvis (PHI): $2,700 @ ATL
Outfield
Odubel Herrera/Michael Saunders (PHI): $2,900 each vs. ATL
The pricing today is odd on DK, with a heavy pool of expensive OF options followed by a mid-level and cheap tier. There’s no way of getting around the fact the Phillies have been putrid of late, but these prices are too low. That being said, they get the shell of Bartolo Colon today.
Herrera seems to have found his stroke this past weekend, most noteworthy a two-homer effort Sunday. You can save a lot of salary by using Philly bats, but it’s risky as Saunders has been so bad he may not even play today with the return of Howard “don’t call me Howie” Kendrick. The Phils actually make a nice contrarian stack, but don’t use them in cash.
Khris Davis (OAK): $3,300 vs. TOR
The analysis for this one is easy and you can also apply it to Scott Schebler (below). These guys are simply way underpriced, bottom line. They’re entirely too cheap considering they have a combined 33 HR on the year.
Davis was tied with Aaron Judge for the league lead until yesterday. Davis ranks 10th in MLB with a 46.5% hard contact rate and not far behind is Schebler for $300 more today, but you get the better ballpark as a trade-off. They’re both in play in all formats.
Jorge Bonifacio (KC): $3,600 @ KC
Sal Perez and Alcides Escobar are both recommended above because, see: Fiers, Mike. You still want real analysis? Okay, in is rookie campaign thus far, Emilio’s bro has displayed a heavy reverse-splits tendency to the tune of a .265 ISO, .404 wOBA, & 155 wRC+ versus RHP.
You’re still wanting more? Fine! His HR/FB rate of 30% is nearly the same as Fiers…I’ll even go as far as to call a long ball from him today as a great pivot off of Schebler. Can I go now? I’m done.
Other Notables
- Jason Werth (WAS): $3,500 @ LAD
- Scott Schebler (CIN): $3,600 @ CIN
- Tommy Pham (STL): $3,900 @ CIN
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Josh Dalley is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him @JoshDalley72.
