The second major of the year is here as the U.S. Open lands in Wisconsin for the first time. Erin Hills, a Hurdzan/Fry/Whitten design laid out along 30-plus acres of rolling farmland, plays host.
USGA executive director Mike Davis has been smitten with the young Midwest track for years and the par-72 course is ready for its debut in a tournament the USGA desperately needs to go well. The hasty early tournament-week fescue cutting suggests U.S. golf’s governing body doesn’t intend to brutalize players, and we could see a score lower than five under par this week.
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This isn’t to say Erin Hills isn’t long—it’s 7,700 yards, the second-longest U.S. Open venue ever. More concerning than the length, however, is the indication the course will see rain Thursday and Friday, which will make it play even longer. In addition to impairing roll out, damp conditions will make the five-inch primary cut of rough even more penal…and the fescue beyond that unplayable.
Erin Hills features firm greens with closely mown areas surrounding (ala Augusta National). Errant approach shots will be funneled away from the raised putting surfaces and players will end up with long pitches, chips, and putts from the fringe.
As mentioned, Erin Hills hasn’t hosted a professional event, although a handful of golfers in the field played the 2011 U.S. Amateur at the venue (Spieth, Uihlein). Still, we can assume long-iron approach play, total driving, and proximity on approach shots will be key.
Predictably, as this is, you know, a major championship, the field is extremely strong. It’s expected that 49 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will tee it up (although Phil Mickelson will likely make it 48). It’s also worth noting that unlike most tournaments, where 70 players and ties make the cut, only the top 60 and ties play the weekend at the U.S. Open.
If you want to go chalk…
Gotta fade DJ. You almost have to fade the top-priced player in GPP, especially when he’s going to be the most widely owned. Don’t look at his stats. Don’t look at his recent form. Bank on the near-impossibility of defending a U.S. Open and keep $12,000 Dustin Johnson on the bench this week.
Top-of-the-line considerations
Rory McIlroy: $11,200
McIlroy is 100 percent healthy and expects to contend at Erin Hills, as he told reporters in his Tuesday press conference. He’s won a U.S. Open and finished in the top 10 twice. McIlroy arrives on the strength of top-10 finishes in seven of his last eight starts. In just 12 measured rounds on the PGA Tour, he’s picked up 2.172 strokes on the field and is gaining strokes everywhere except around the green. Quality long-iron player as well.
Rickie Fowler: $10,500
You can argue either side of the four highest-priced players. But Fowler, at $10,500, is cheaper than Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth. And coming off a missed cut at the FedEx St. Jude might drive his ownership down a few percentage points. Fowler is 13th in strokes gained: approach-the-green, 11th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, and second in total strokes gained. Fowler has done some good work at past U.S. Open venues, finishing tied for second at Pinehurst in 2014.
Birdie Brigade
Birdies are the name of the game in GPPs. Field leaders in birdie or better percentage.
1. Justin Thomas: $8,300
2. Jordan Spieth: $11,500
3. Hideki Matsuyama: $9,600
4. Rickie Fowler: $10,500
5. Jon Rahm: $10,300
6. Justin Rose: $9,800
8. Brooks Koepka: $9,000
9. Dustin Johnson: $12,000
Recommended Lineup
Sergio Garcia: $10,000
Angela Akins has Sergio Garcia hungry for major victories in a way we’ve never seen. Sure, he won the Masters, but the $10,000 price tag is an attractive one for a golfer who has finished outside the top 30 just once this year. The Spaniard also finished top 20 in his last two U.S. Opens.
Justin Rose: $9,800
Top-15 finishes in four of his last five starts. Past U.S. Open winner. Well rested. Eighth in strokes gained: off-the-tee. 14th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. 13th in strokes gained: total. Sixth in birdies. Only $9,800. Any questions?
Paul Casey: $8,400
Casey has finished T22 or better in six of his last seven starts. His U.S. Open history isn’t stellar, and he missed the cut last year. Hopefully, this drives ownership down on a player well worth taking a chance on. 13th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 20th in strokes gained: total.
Louis Oosthuizen: $7,400
Oosthuizen arrives after a second-place showing at The Players and a tie for 18th at the Byron Nelson. He’s finished inside the top 25 in his last two U.S. Opens. 18th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, 17th in stroke gained: tee-to-green, 10th in strokes gained: total.
Charl Schwartzel: $7,300
Schwartzel flashed a brilliant bit of form at the FedEx St. Jude where he finished second. He’s made six of his last seven U.S. Open cuts with top-25 finishes in all but one. You could make a case Schwartzel ought to be priced in excess of $7,500, so he’s a definite value.
Francesco Molinari: $7,000
Molinari hasn’t finished worse than a tie for 24th in his last five starts. He’s a top-30 finisher in three of his last four U.S. Opens. One of the most accurate drivers on Tour, Molinari shouldn’t be spending any time in Erin Hills’ treacherous fescue. While he doesn’t hit it anywhere, he’s still 27th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Second in strokes gained: approach. Eighth in strokes gained: total. Heckuva play at $7K.
Ben Alberstadt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Ben, check out his archive and follow him @BenAlberstadt.
