The underrated Travelers Championship returns to its rightful place on the PGA Tour calendar this year after a move to accommodate the Olympics. Arriving at TPC River Highlands is a strong field for the week after a major, owing to the overall quality of the tournament for both players and fans. Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed, and Brandt Snedeker are all teeing it up in Cromwell, Connecticut.
A multitude of playing styles have seen success at the TPC. A 6,800-yard par 70, driving distance doesn’t afford a massive advantage this week. The management rebuilt some greens and bunkers ahead of this championship, but we shouldn’t see a substantial uptick in course difficulty. TPC River Highlands is a middle-of-the-pack difficulty track, which ranked 26th out of 50th for event scoring during the last competition.
Greens in regulation and proximity to the hole are the most significant stats this week as players will need to give themselves good looks at birdies to keep pace. Beyond that, no one statistical area is key, although most approach shots come from the 150- to 200-yard range.
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If you want to go chalk…
Stay away from Day. At an approach-centric course, it’s tough to rationalize the guy who’s presently 162 on Tour in strokes gained: approach, especially when that guy has an $11,500 price tag. After a miserable showing at the U.S. Open, don’t play Day.
Top-of-the-Line Considerations
Rory McIlroy: $11,600
While both Rory McIlroy and Jason Day missed the cut at the U.S. Open, McIlroy showed more signs of life and finished strong, birdieing four of his final six holes. Rust was to be expected from the Ulsterman at Erin Hills, and rust we saw, particularly with his driving. Let’s assume he’s shaken it off. An adept iron player, McIlroy is the top-tier play this week.
Jordan Spieth: $11,400
Spieth leads the Tour in strokes gained: approach and is 10th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He’s third in scoring average and second in birdies. An adept tactician, don’t worry about Spieth’s lack of course history. He tied for 35th at the U.S. Open in his most recent action, seemingly unable to get any putts to fall. At 40th on Tour in strokes gained: putting, Spieth’s much discussed putting woes aren’t significant enough to keep him from making a healthy batch of birdies this week.
Birdie Brigade
Birdies are the name of the game in GPP. Here are the field leaders in birdie or better percentage and their seasonal rank (BoB%)
1. Justin Thomas: $10,200
2. Jordan Spieth: $11,400
9. Anirban Lahiri: $7,500
10. Tony Finau: $8,700
12. Scott Piercy: $6,900
Recommended Lineup
Paul Casey: $9,700
Steady Casey has a quality course history here. He finished second at the Travelers in 2015 and was a top-20 finisher last year. Recently, he hasn’t finished worse than 26th the last five times he’s teed it up. Third in strokes gained: approach. Fifth in greens in regulation.
Patrick Reed: $9,500
Equipment issues sorted out, P. Reed has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last five starts. He’s also finished top 20 in two of his last four Travelers starts (of course, the other two finishes were missed cuts). Stats won’t tell you a ton, given the enormity of his awfulness in the early part of the season.
Marc Leishman: $9,300
Leishman is 23rd in strokes gained: tee-to-green and 10th in total strokes gained. 32nd in birdies and seventh in scoring average, as well. He’s made eight of his last nine cuts with top-30 showings in three of his last four starts. In six Travelers starts, he’s finished 11th or better four times. Lock Leish in.
Charley Hoffman: $7,300
Bizarrely priced at just $7,300, take advantage of the opportunity to buy this much player for this little money. Hoffman has never missed a cut at TPC River Highlands and he just finished inside the top 10 at the U.S. Open. 12th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, Hoffman should return value with any finish inside the top 30, which he’s a lock for.
Emiliano Grillo: $7,200
36th in strokes gained: approach, 30th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, what are you doing at $7,200, Emiliano Grillo? Hopefully, the Argentine’s ownership will be down after a missed cut at the U.S. Open. His form was excellent prior to the MC, so a poor effort at Erin Hills shouldn’t be concerning. A gritty competitor, expect Grillo to bounce back this week.
Webb Simpson $6,900
11th in strokes gained: approach. 18th in strokes gained: around-the-green. 24th in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He can’t putt…but at $6,900? You gotta play Webb. He’s made five of his last six cuts and wasn’t awful at the U.S. Open. Oh, and he’s never missed the cut at the Travelers Championship.
Ben Alberstadt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Ben, check out his archive and follow him @BenAlberstadt.
