FanDuel MLB Value Plays: Monday (6/19)
Welcome to the Monday edition of the FanDuel MLB value plays. We have 11 games to work with on this Monday night slate. As always, be sure to check out the weather and the team lineups throughout the day. Let’s go ahead and take a look at my favorite value options for today.
Jake Odorizzi (TBR): $7,700 vs. CIN
I cannot honestly say that I recommend going the value route with pitching tonight since you would need all four of the top dollar pitchers to fall flat on their face. The chances that all four of them do so is pretty slim, so you will likely need to use one of them to do well in both cash games and GPPs. With that being said, if you want to drop down a little bit, consider using Odorizzi. The Reds will gain the DH tonight, but they have a substantial negative park shift to Tropicana Field. Also, Jake Odorizzi has pitched much better at home this year.
Russell Martin (TOR): $2,300 at TEX
If you’re using Clayton Kershaw in cash games tonight, you will have to find a couple of hitters who are priced near the minimum salary tonight. One of those options could be Martin. He has been decent this season against right-handed pitchers with a 0.346 wOBA. On the surface, it looks like Austin Bibens-Dirkx has been solid this season. However, some of the more advanced metrics suggest that he has been getting really lucky. Bibens-Drikx currently has a 3.28 ERA, despite having a 5.16 FIP. That regression very well could begin today since the weather in Texas is extremely favorable for pitchers today
Brandon Belt (SFG) : $3,000 at ATL
The Giants’ left-handed hitters will see a really nice, positive park shift as they move to SunTrust Park. They also have a solid matchup against R.A.Dickey, who is way past his prime. One of the lefties who we can use tonight against Dickey is Belt. He has been excellent against right-handed pitchers this season with a 0.358 wOBA and a 0.233 ISO.
Chase Utley (LAD) : $2,300 vs. NYM
Which direction you go at second base in terms of value will probably depend on what type of contest you are playing. For GPPs I will probably be using Javier Baez, but in cash games, I prefer to use Utley. Utley has been leading off lately against right-handed pitchers and if he’s there again tonight he is a must play for our Kershaw lineups.
Matt Chapman (OAK) : $2,000 vs. HOU
Third base will probably be the one spot where I’m looking to spend up in my Kershaw lineups, but if you want to go the value route consider going all the down to the bare minimum with Chapman. Chapman was recently called up by the A’s after putting up some really nice offensive numbers at the Triple-A level. In 203 plate appearances in Triple-A, Chapman had a 0.391 wOBA and 16 home runs. He hasn’t been hitting in a premium spot of the order, but the bare minimum salary kind of negates that negative.
Brandon Crawford (SFG) : $3,000 at ATL
Crawford doesn’t have great numbers this season, but has been making solid contact against right-handed hitters and he does usually hit in the middle of the order against right-handed hitters. I already mentioned how Dickey is no longer a good pitcher, so we can definitely use a couple of different Giants’ lefties tonight.
Mallex Smith (TBR) : $2,600 vs. CIN
Mallex has been hitting leadoff lately for the Rays against right-handed pitching and he’s still a pretty nice bargain for someone who is capable of stealing multiple bases in every game. Tonight he has a decent matchup against Scott Feldman who has allowed a 0.355 wOBA to opposing left-handed pitchers this season.
Kevin Pillar (TOR) : $2,800 at TEX
I prefer using Pillar against left-handed pitchers, but he still does tend to hit leadoff for the Blue Jays against right-handed hitters. I already mentioned how Bibens-Dirkx is due to blow up anytime now, so feel free to use multiple Jays’ hitters in your lineups tonight.
Albert Almora (CHC) : $2,200 vs. SD
Almora will likely be in the lineup tonight since Ben Zobrist is out with a wrist injury and the Cubs are facing the left-handed Clayton Richard. My exposure to Almora will likely depend on where he is slotted in the order. If he is hitting seventh or better, I will likely have a decent amount of Almora since Richard has struggled both on the road and against right-handed hitters this season.