Summer’s official arrival draws MLB’s season near the unofficial halfway mark. While patience is vital to fantasy baseball success, managers must start acting swiftly rather than staying the course.
By now, let’s hope everyone in holds or holds-plus-saves leagues have cut any dead bullpen weight. Streaks and role changes create too many valuable middle relievers to stick with a struggling brand name like Brad Ziegler or Jeremy Jeffress. In a competitive league, breakout stars such as Tommy Kahnle, Blake Parker, and Archie Bradley should also be long gone.
If not, the names below won’t be particularly alluring. None of them have a gaudy holds tally or stable track record, but they’re rolling with room to ascend into a higher role. Those who need an extra middle reliever in a league where the top-shelf choices are gone should look their way.
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David Hernandez (LAA)
The Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen situation should be way simpler than it is. Assuming they care about fantasy managers and/or believe the best reliever belongs in the ninth regardless of the situation, the returning Cam Bedrosian should reclaim the role vacated by Bud Norris taking his place on the disabled list.
Yet with the Angels leading the New York Yankees by three on Tuesday, Bedrosian worked the seventh inning. It wasn’t a strategic move for him to handle the Bronx Bombers’ best batters; Keynan Middleton faced Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez in the eighth.
Angels manager Mike Scioscia might even be old-school enough to hand the ninth back to former closer Huston Street, who two years ago said he’d retire before serving a leverage-dictated role. Lost in all this madness, David Hernandez has posted a 2.38 ERA, 25 strikeouts and four walks in 22.2 innings.
He picked up a save last week, but he’s unlikely to see many more opportunities. Let’s instead tout his merit as a middle reliever, whose 1.59 FIP ranks sixth among all qualified bullpen arms. The 32-year-old hasn’t yielded a walk or run since May 28.
No matter how Scioscia manages the final frames, Hernandez should remain a sturdy seventh- or eighth-inning option. He’s worth adding in holds formats, and Bedrosian should be owned regardless of his role. Street, meanwhile, is only ownable for someone desperately seeking saves.
Danny Barnes and Ryan Tepera (TOR)
The Toronto Blue Jays sent setup man Joe Smith to the 10-day disabled list, retroactive to Friday, with shoulder inflammation. Although the reliable setup man may only require a short stay, it opens the door for both Danny Barnes and Ryan Tepera to shine as the setup men to closer Roberto Osuna.
“I got no doubt anyone of those guys, and the rest of the bullpen, can step up and pitch and continue to get outs. I know we’ll be alright,” Smith told the Toronto Sun’s Steve Buffery.
Smith has reasons beyond public politeness to express confidence in his replacements. Including Barnes’ truncated 2016 arrival, he holds a career 2.80 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 45 innings. This year he boasts a 2.30 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 10.16 K/9 powered by a 13.0 swinging-strike rate.
Another long-time Toronto farmhand, Tepera has registered a 2.63 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 37.2 innings this season. Occasionally used in long relief, he leads the team in innings pitched, vulturing four wins in the process.
If manager John Gibbons looks at their season splits, he may deploy both righties by matchups. Barnes has ceded a .180 wOBA to opposing lefties, and Tepera has stymied righties to a .193 wOBA. They both recorded holds on Wednesday night.
It’s possible neither makes a major dent if Smith misses a week or two, but whichever hurler shines brightest could gain the inside track on more seventh-inning opportunities in hold scenarios. Tepera is the safer choice, but Barnes presents more upside.
George Kontos (SF)
The San Francisco Giants bullpen isn’t quite the mess most envision. Although their cumulative 4.29 ERA rates in the middle of MLB’s pack, their 3.73 FIP resides with the top 10.
Yet Hunter Strickland, who didn’t record his first hold until May 13, now leads the team with a meager six. That’s partially because of the 27-47 team sinking to last place in a suddenly potent NL West, but Derek Law (5.40 ERA) hasn’t lived up to expectations as a paramount setup man.
George Kontos instead leads the club’s bullpen in innings pitched (33.1) and strikeouts (38), already exceeding last year’s 35 punchouts in 53.1 frames. His contact percentage has plummeted from 77.8 to 66.7, and his swinging-strike rate has soared to 15.7.
The 32-year-old has also improved his command this month, issuing two walks aside 17 strikeouts over 9.2 innings. His three holds equal his three blown saves, but he’s a hot hand who can help if the Giants wake up from their nightmarish season.
Josh Hader (MIL)
A more exciting name than most who frequent this article, Josh Hader has tossed 5.1 scoreless frames since debuting in the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen. Some scouts have tarnished the top pitching prospect with a “future reliever” label, but the 23-year-old southpaw should receive an opportunity to start this season.
For now, he’s more appealing in his current role for gamers in holds leagues. Promoted with a 10.1 K/9 throughout his minor league career, he offers massive strikeout upside in shorter stints. So far, however, he has compiled three while surrendering five walks.
Truth be told, Hader is only here because of his prospect pedigree. His hitless streak amounts to small-sample fortune, and the Brewers welcomed him to the majors despite posting both a 5.37 ERA and BB/9 in Triple-A. Perhaps they hope a baptism by fire will rediscover the guy who allowed seven runs in 11 Double-A starts last season.
Small-sample size alerts work both ways. His fastball-slider combo should incur more strikeouts once he grows accustomed to the new assignment, and Milwaukee can stretch him out for optimal impact. Better alternatives are still likely available, but Hader’s ceiling nonetheless makes him an intriguing speculative grab.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
