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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (6/12 – 6/18)

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (6/12 – 6/18)

The Super Two deadline is approaching, which means that teams will soon be able to call up their top prospects without service time concerns. This is like Christmas in the fantasy baseball season, where barren waiver wires will soon be populated with interesting players. However, in the midst of this time, veteran players cannot be ignored in the weeks leading up to the All-Star Break.

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Rising in Value

Lonnie Chisenhall (OF – CLE)
Chisenhall has largely been an unremarkable player since his debut in 2011, though to this point in the season he carries a .288 batting average and 10 HRs, three of which came in the past week. He’s joining the flyball revolution, driving 50.1% of batted balls in the air, a career high. Chisenhall is also barreling up 13.8% of the time, slightly better than power hitters like Michael Conforto and Chris Davis.

Jimmy Nelson (SP – MIL)
A poor start on 6/13 may have deflated some of the hype, but Nelson struck out 10 and allowed one earned run over nine innings on Sunday. With a 24% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate to go along with a 49.6% groundball rate, this breakout appears real. He’s now boasting a 3.39 ERA and 3.13 FIP through 85 innings.

Trey Mancini (OF – BAL)
It’s easy to dismiss Mancini’s start to the season as fueled by a .373 BABIP, though luck is only a small part of the equation. Statcast’s batted ball data-driven xwOBA formula projects Mancini at a .371 wOBA, just 10 points below his .381 mark. His batting average may come down a little bit, but he’ll continue to hit for power, especially since the ball carries well in Camden Yards as it heats up in the summer.

Matt Carpenter (1B/2B/3B – STL)
Those who drafted Carpenter probably aren’t too disappointed with a .247/.371/.484 slash line, but over the past two weeks he’s been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, slashing .367/.456/.755. This streak may be an indicator of his true talent level: his xwOBA is .412, which would rank ninth among first baseman behind Ryan Zimmerman.

Brad Peacock (SP – HOU)
Peacock is coming off one of the stranger pitching performances of the season, with just six out of 20 batters he faced putting the ball in play, 10 striking out, and four walking. With a crazy 2.34 FIP and 13.6% swinging strike rate, he’ll continue to rack up strikeouts despite iffy control. Not bad for a guy with a career 4.57 ERA and 4.93 FIP entering the season.

Falling in Value

Ervin Santana (SP – MIN)
It was only a matter of time before Santana’s results started to line up more with his peripherals, as a 2+ run differential between an ERA and FIP is practically impossible to maintain. He has shown the ability to suppress hard contact, so maybe he won’t become totally unusable by the end of the season, but further regression is incoming.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF – COL)
In spite of improved plate discipline, Gonzalez just doesn’t seem to be the hitter he used to be. He’s averaging a paltry 86.6 mph exit velocity with an xwOBA of just .295. Even playing half his games in Coors, it’s hard to see him hitting more than 10 HRs the rest of the way. Keep an eye out for signs of life, but as things stand, Gonzalez doesn’t have much value.

Marwin Gonzalez (1B/2B/3B/SS/OF – HOU)
Gonzalez has been one of the most surprising standouts of the 2017 season, but is it sustainable? His batted ball data isn’t much different to what it was in 2016, when he hit 13 HRs over a full season, though he has 12 already this year. He is swinging and missing less, so something like a .275-.280 average with 5-10 HRs is a reasonable expectation for the rest of the season.

Lance Lynn (SP – STL)
Lynn has been flirting with disaster with a 3.33 ERA and 5.31 FIP. He was just torched for seven earned runs, including four HRs, over 4.2 innings on Sunday. There is little in his profile to suggest a .218 BABIP or 85.8% strand rate is sustainable, though his 16.4% HR/FB rate might be a bit unlucky. Steamer pegs Lynn for a 4.02 ERA rest of season, which seems reasonable.

Jeremy Hellickson (SP – PHI)
Anyone still holding onto Hellickson can probably afford to cut bait outside of 20-team NL-only leagues. He has the lowest strikeout rate among qualified starting pitchers at 10.3%, due largely to a career-worst 7.3% swinging strike rate. Hellickson has given up 23 runs over his past five starts – and things don’t look to be getting better anytime soon.


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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.

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