Risers & Fallers returns after a brief hiatus with more insight into plate discipline data and contact analysis. We’re not too far away from the All-Star break, but there’s plenty more baseball to be played. Fantasy teams towards the bottom of the standings are only a few savvy moves away from competing, and teams at the top should be vigilant to stay there.
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Rising In Value
Nick Castellanos (3B – DET)
Castellanos has followed up a promising 2016 campaign by batting .229 with eight HRs in the 2017 season. However, three of those home runs came in the past week and contact analysis suggests more success is in the cards. Statcast puts his xOBA at .377, while his actual wOBA is just .308. If Castellanos is still available, now might be the final opportunity to pick him up before his value skyrockets.
Jeff Hoffman (SP – COL)
Rookie pitchers on the Rockies aren’t typically a recommended investment, but Hoffman has a sterling 30.4 K-BB%, ranking only behind Chris Sale among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings. With a healthy 13.0% swinging strike rate, Hoffman should at least be a good source of strikeouts while he’s in the rotation.
Sonny Gray (SP – OAK)
In his first eight starts of the season since returning from injury, Sonny Gray has the lowest FIP since his rookie season at 3.36. His ERA hasn’t quite caught up yet at 4.37, but his 11.2% swinging strike rate is also the best of his career. He’s been a bit unlucky so far, but Gray is quickly rounding into 2013-15 form.
Jordan Montgomery (SP – NYY)
Montgomery has been cited as a popular buy candidate for the past few weeks, but he’s still owned in just 23% of Yahoo leagues. He has a 3.55 ERA and 3.53 FIP with well above average contact rates, so it’s reasonable to expect him to be a top-60 pitcher for the rest of the season with some room for growth.
Robbie Grossman (OF – MIN)
Among batters with at least 500 PAs from 2016-17, Robbie Grossman is quietly 22nd in wRC+ at 130, above guys like Mookie Betts, George Springer, and Bryce Harper. He’s more valuable in OBP leagues with a .277 AVG versus .393 OBP, but Grossman is a legitimately good hitter owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues.
Falling In Value
Ian Happ (2B/OF – CHC)
Happ got off to a hot start in his first taste of the major leagues, but he’s seen his average dip to .210 due in large part to a 35.5% strikeout rate. He has the fourth highest swinging strike rate among all hitters over the past month at 19.0%. Happ has a bright future, but he’s probably not worth holding onto in redraft leagues unless he starts to make major adjustments.
Antonio Senzatela (SP – COL)
In the past month, Senzatela’s ERA has risen nearly a full run – from 2.86 to 3.84. With a 4.40 FIP and 4.66 SIERA, further regression is looming. Senzatela allows about as much contact as any pitcher in the game, and that coupled with pitching for the Rockies severely caps his value. He’s had an impressive rookie season but isn’t much of a fantasy asset.
Matt Moore (SP – SF)
Moore has really struggled and there aren’t many signs pointing to a rebound. His 8.7 K-BB% places him 65th out of 83 qualified starting pitchers and he’s allowing hard contact at a 39.0% rate, the worst of his career. Even though he’s managed to stay healthy over the past two seasons, Moore hasn’t shown the same upside he did at the beginning of his career.
Rougned Odor (2B – TEX)
In spite of poor plate discipline, Odor was drafted in the first five rounds of most leagues and has been a huge disappointment with six HRs and a .206 batting average. His soft contact rate has gone up 8.0% with his overall contact rate dropping by 2.4%. He’s still a pretty good source of power from second base, but don’t expect a whole lot else.
Patrick Corbin (SP – ARI)
Corbin saw some interest earlier in the season with a small uptick in velocity, but his 2017 hasn’t been much of an improvement over 2016. He’s already allowed 14 HRs and doesn’t have the stuff or command to prevent hard contact. He’s probably better than the 5.38 ERA suggests, but there are likely more interesting options on the waiver wire.
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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.
