We use the phrase “buy low” to describe the strategy of trying to trade for a player who is under-performing, but who we feel confident will rebound. The obvious goal is to try to acquire that player at a price cheaper than what you feel he’ll be worth for the rest of the season.
June presents an interesting time to evaluate some buy-low candidates. Usually, if we’ve done our research and projected a player in the pre-season, we feel confident that he’ll hit those numbers by season’s end, even if he’s slumping. But at some point, a slow start might not just be a slow start – it might be a slow year. It might be the beginning of an older player’s decline. It might be a hidden injury.
Making the wrong buy-low deal can ruin your season. As you’ll see in the trade chart below, I think you need not be concerned with certain players who are still slumping. With some others, I have concerns.
Take it all in, evaluate the metrics, and see where it leaves you. As for me, I’ll try to explain my reasoning in this week’s edition of the trade chart. Let’s dive in.
Analyze any potential deal with our Trade Analyzer >>
| Player | Current Value | Previous Value | +/- |
| Paul Goldschmidt (1B – ARI) | 66 | 66 | – |
| Bryce Harper (OF – WAS) | 65 | 65 | – |
| Mookie Betts (OF – BOS) | 65 | 65 | – |
| Jose Altuve (2B – HOU) | 63 | 63 | – |
| Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD) | 62 | 62 | – |
| Nolan Arenado (3B – COL) | 60 | 60 | – |
| Kris Bryant (3B – CHC) | 60 | 60 | – |
| Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL) | 59 | 59 | – |
| Joey Votto (1B – CIN) | 58 | 58 | – |
| Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC) | 57 | 56 | +1 |
| Manny Machado (3B – BAL) | 54 | 54 | – |
| Chris Sale (SP- CWS) | 54 | 54 | – |
| Max Scherzer (SP – WAS) | 54 | 53 | +1 |
| Josh Donaldson (3B – TOR) | 52 | 50 | +2 |
| Corey Seager (SS – LAD) | 44 | 44 | – |
| Daniel Murphy (2B – WAS) | 43 | 43 | – |
| Carlos Correa (SS – HOU) | 43 | 43 | – |
| Francisco Lindor (SS – CLE) | 43 | 43 | – |
| Trea Turner (SS – WAS) | 43 | 43 | – |
| Nelson Cruz (OF – SEA) | 42 | 42 | – |
| Giancarlo Stanton (OF – MIA) | 42 | 42 | – |
| Edwin Encarnacion (1B – CLE) | 41 | 37 | +4 |
| Miguel Cabrera (1B – DET) | 38 | 38 | – |
| Wil Myers (1B – SD) | 37 | 37 | – |
| George Springer (OF – HOU) | 37 | 37 | – |
| J.D. Martinez (OF – DET) | 37 | 37 | – |
| Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS) | 36 | 36 | – |
| Aaron Judge (OF – NYY) | 36 | 35 | +1 |
| Corey Kluber (SP – CLE) | 35 | 35 | – |
| A.J. Pollock (OF – ARI) | 34 | 33 | +1 |
| Mike Trout (OF – LAA) | 34 | 32 | +2 |
| Yu Darvish (SP – TEX) | 33 | 33 | – |
| Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) | 33 | 33 | – |
| Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM) | 32 | 32 | – |
| Chris Archer (SP – TB) | 32 | 32 | – |
| Brian Dozier (2B – MIN) | 31 | 31 | – |
| Miguel Sano (3B – MIN) | 31 | 31 | – |
| Jose Abreu (1B – CWS) | 31 | 31 | – |
| Billy Hamilton (OF – CIN) | 31 | 31 | – |
| Christian Yelich (OF – MIA) | 30 | 30 | – |
| Robinson Cano (2B – SEA) | 30 | 30 | – |
| Jon Lester (SP – CHC) | 28 | 28 | – |
| Jake Arrieta (SP – CHC) | 28 | 28 | – |
| Buster Posey (C – SF) | 28 | 28 | – |
| Zack Greinke (SP – ARI) | 27 | 27 | – |
| Matt Carpenter (1B – STL) | 27 | 27 | – |
| Dallas Keuchel (SP – HOU) | 26 | 31 | -5 |
| Lance McCullers (SP – HOU) | 26 | 27 | – |
| Kenley Jansen (RP – LAD) | 26 | 26 | – |
| Craig Kimbrel (RP – BOS) | 26 | 26 | – |
| Johnny Cueto (SP – SF) | 25 | 27 | -2 |
| Carlos Carrasco (SP – CLE) | 25 | 25 | – |
| Ian Desmond (OF – COL) | 24 | 24 | – |
| Eric Thames (1B – MIL) | 23 | 23 | – |
| Justin Upton (OF – DET) | 23 | 23 | – |
| Justin Verlander (SP – DET) | 23 | 23 | – |
| Marcell Ozuna (OF – MIA) | 23 | 23 | – |
| Carlos Gonzalez (OF – COL) | 22 | 24 | -2 |
| Dee Gordon (2B – MIA) | 22 | 22 | – |
| Matt Kemp (OF – ATL) | 22 | 24 | -2 |
| Rougned Odor (2B – TEX) | 22 | 22 | – |
| Anthony Rendon (3B – WAS) | 22 | 22 | – |
| Gary Sanchez (C – NYY) | 22 | 20 | +2 |
| Hanley Ramirez (1B – BOS) | 21 | 21 | – |
| David Price (SP – BOS) | 21 | 21 | – |
| Michael Conforto (OF – NYM) | 21 | 21 | – |
| Carlos Martinez (SP – STL) | 21 | 20 | +1 |
| Kyle Seager (3B – SEA) | 20 | 20 | – |
| Khris Davis (OF – OAK) | 20 | 20 | – |
| Ryan Zimmerman (1B – WAS) | 20 | 20 | – |
| Carlos Santana (1B – CLE) | 20 | 20 | – |
| Michael Brantley (OF – CLE) | 20 | 20 | – |
| James Paxton (SP – SEA) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Adam Jones (OF – BAL) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Yoenis Cespedes (OF – NYM) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Mark Trumbo (1B – BAL) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Jose Bautista (OF – TOR) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Jean Segura (SS – SEA) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY) | 19 | 17 | +2 |
| Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE) | 18 | 18 | – |
| Gerrit Cole (SP – PIT) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Wade Davis (RP – CHC) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Andrew McCutchen (OF – PIT) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Ryan Braun (OF – MIL) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Lorenzo Cain (OF – KC) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Michael Fulmer (SP – DET) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Madison Bumgarner (SP – SF) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Adam Duvall (OF – CIN) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Gregory Polanco (OF – PIT) | 17 | 17 | – |
| DJ LeMahieu (2B – COL) | 16 | 16 | – |
| Cody Bellinger (OF – LAD) | 16 | 14 | +2 |
| Alexander Colome (RP – TB) | 16 | 16 | – |
| Greg Holland (RP – COL) | 16 | 16 | – |
| Jake Lamb (3B – ARI) | 16 | 16 | – |
| Roberto Osuna (RP – TOR) | 16 | 15 | +1 |
| Jonathan Lucroy (C – TEX) | 15 | 15 | – |
| Adrian Beltre (3B – TEX) | 15 | 15 | – |
| Cody Allen (RP – CLE) | 15 | 15 | – |
| Jason Kipnis (2B – CLE) | 14 | 14 | – |
| Trevor Story (SS – COL) | 14 | 14 | – |
| Todd Frazier (3B – CWS) | 14 | 14 | – |
| Kyle Hendricks (SP – CHC) | 13 | 15 | -2 |
| Jose Quintana (SP – CWS) | 13 | 13 | – |
| Evan Longoria (3B – TB) | 13 | 13 | – |
| Odubel Herrera (OF – PHI) | 13 | 13 | – |
| Eric Hosmer (1B – KC) | 13 | 13 | – |
| Kenneth Giles (RP – HOU) | 13 | 13 | – |
| Jonathan Villar (2B – MIL) | 12 | 18 | -6 |
| Salvador Perez (C – KC) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY) | 12 | 14 | -2 |
| Michael Pineda (SP – NYY) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Chris Davis (1B – BAL) | 12 | 21 | -9 |
| Kelvin Herrera (RP – KC) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Marcus Stroman (SP – TOR) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Rick Porcello (SP – BOS) | 11 | 13 | -2 |
| Seung-Hwan Oh (RP – STL) | 11 | 11 | – |
| Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL) | 11 | 11 | – |
| Mark Melancon (RP – SF) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Corey Knebel (RP – MIL) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Justin Turner (3B – MIA) | 10 | 10 | – |
| David Robertson (RP – CWS) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Corey Dickerson (OF – TB) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Ian Kinsler (2B – DET) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Andrew Benintendi (OF – BOS) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Ervin Santana (SP – MIN) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Julio Teheran (SP – ATL) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Mike Moustakas (3B – KC) | 9 | 7 | +2 |
| Robbie Ray (SP – ARI) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Kyle Schwarber (OF – CHC) | 8 | 8 | – |
| Kendrys Morales (1B – TOR) | 8 | 8 | – |
| Matt Bush (RP – TEX) | 8 | 8 | – |
| Addison Reed (RP – NYM) | 8 | 8 | – |
| Alex Bregman (3B – HOU) | 8 | 9 | -1 |
| Yasmany Tomas (OF – ARI) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Raisel Iglesias (RP – CIN) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Cole Hamels (SP – TEX) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Rich Hill (SP – LAD) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Marco Estrada (SP – TOR) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Kenta Maeda (SP – LAD) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Elvis Andrus (SS – TEX) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Edwin Diaz (RP – SEA) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Alex Wood (SP – LAD) | 7 | 5 | +2 |
| Aledmys Diaz (SS – STL) | 6 | 6 | – |
| Jay Bruce (OF – NYM) | 6 | 6 | – |
| Luis Severino (SP – NYY) | 6 | 6 | – |
| Nomar Mazara (OF – TEX) | 6 | 6 | – |
| Brandon Kintzler (RP – MIN) | 6 | 6 | – |
| Jose Berrios (SP – MIN) | 6 | 4 | +2 |
| Danny Duffy (SP – KC) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Stephen Piscotty (OF – STL) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Brandon Belt (1B – SF) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Dylan Bundy (SP – BAL) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Felipe Rivero (RP – PIT) | 5 | 3 | +2 |
| Sean Manaea (SP – OAK) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Yonder Alonso (1B – OAK) | 5 | 3 | +2 |
| Drew Pomeranz (SP – BOS) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Jeff Samardzija (SP – SF) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Justin Bour (1B – MIA) | 5 | 2 | +3 |
| Dustin Pedroia (2B – BOS) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Willson Contreras (C – CHC) | 4 | 4 | – |
| J.T. Realmuto (C – MIA) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Yasmani Grandal (C – LAD) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Eduardo Nunez (3B – SF) | 4 | 4 | – |
| A.J. Ramos (RP – MIA) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Brad Brach (RP – BAL) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Justin Wilson (RP – DET) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – BOS) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Albert Pujols (1B – LAA) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Maikel Franco (3B – PHI) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Felix Hernandez (SP – SEA) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Ender Inciarte (OF – ATL) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Steven Matz (SP – NYM) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Jake Odorizzi (SP – TB) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Jose Peraza (2B – CIN) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Jim Johnson (RP – ATL) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Sonny Gray (SP – OAK) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Mitch Haniger (OF – SEA) | 4 | 3 | +1 |
| Justin Smoak (1B – TOR) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Starlin Castro (2B – NYY) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Zack Cozart (SS – CIN) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Ben Zobrist (2B – CHC) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Dellin Betances (RP – NYY) | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B – CIN) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Jedd Gyorko (3B – STL) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Tanner Roark (SP – WAS) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Aaron Sanchez (SP – TOR) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Kole Calhoun (OF – LAA) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Bud Norris (RP – LAA) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Andrew Miller (RP – CLE) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Aaron Nola (SP – PHI) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Jackie Bradley (OF – BOS) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Welington Castillo (C – BAL) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Zach Britton (RP – BAL) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Matt Holliday (1B – NYY) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Domingo Santana OF – MIL) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Mallex Smith (OF – TB) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Michael Wacha (SP – STL) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Fernando Rodney (RP – ARI) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Addison Russell (SS – CHC) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Jameson Taillon (SP – PIT) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Matt Shoemaker (SP – LAA) | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Nick Castellanos (3B – DET) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Jimmy Nelson (SP – MIL) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Jonathan Gray (SP – COL) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Ryon Healy (3B – OAK) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Dexter Fowler (OF – STL) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Mark Reynolds (1B – COL) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Jonathan Schoop (2B – BAL) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Cesar Hernandez (2B – PHI) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Hunter Pence (OF – SF) | 2 | 2 | – |
| David Dahl (OF – COL) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Evan Gattis (C – HOU) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Brett Gardner (OF – NYY) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Josh Bell (1B – PIT) | 2 | 2 | – |
| David Peralta (OF – ARI) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Kevin Pillar (OF – TOR) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Kevin Gausman (SP – BAL) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Brian McCann (C – HOU) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Taijuan Walker (SP – SEA) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Scott Schebler (OF – CIN) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Avisail Garcia (OF – CWS) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Joe Ross (SP – WAS) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Lucas Duda (1B – NYM) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Noah Syndergaard (SP – NYM) | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| John Lackey (SP – CHC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Troy Tulowitzki (SS – TOR) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Ivan Nova (SP – PIT) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jerad Eickhoff (SP – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Josh Harrison (3B – PIT) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Lance Lynn (SP – STL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Mike Leake (SP – STL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Yasiel Puig (OF – LAD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Carlos Beltran (OF – HOU) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Travis Shaw (3B – MIL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Victor Martinez (DH – DET) | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| Keon Broxton (OF – MIL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Josh Reddick (OF – HOU) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Koda Glover (RP – WAS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Matt Wieters (C – WAS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Joey Gallo (3B – TEX) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Aaron Altherr (OF – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Byron Buxton (OF – MIN) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Nick Pivetta (SP – PHI) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Steven Souza (OF – TB) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Santiago Casilla (RP – OAK) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Ian Happ (2B – CHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Danny Salazar (SP – CLE) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Sean Doolittle (RP – OAK) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Junior Guerra (SP – MIL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Brandon Maurer (RP – SD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Brandon Crawford (SS – SF) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Chris Owings (SS – ARI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Hector Neris (RP – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Joc Pederson (OF – LAD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Gio Gonzalez (SP – WAS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Francis Martes (SP – HOU) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Brandon Phillips (2B – ATL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Yadier Molina (C – STL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Aaron Hicks (OF – NYY) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Melky Cabrera (OF – CWS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Max Kepler (OF – MIN) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Matt Strahm (SP – KC) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Hunter Renfroe (OF – SD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Javier Baez (2B – CHC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jason Vargas (SP – KC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Tim Anderson (SS -CWS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| J.A. Happ (SP – TOR) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Starling Marte (OF – PIT) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Logan Forsythe (2B – LAD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Matt Moore (SP – SF) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Vincent Velasquez (SP – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Manuel Margot (OF – SD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Curtis Granderson (OF – NYM) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Mike Napoli (1B – TEX) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Tommy Joseph (1B – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Brad Miller (SS – TB) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Tom Murphy (C – COL) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Ian Kennedy (SP – KC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jason Heyward (OF – CHC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jarrod Dyson (OF – KC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Didi Gregorius (SS – NYY) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Derek Fisher (OF – HOU) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Adam Wainwright (SP – STL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Chris Taylor (2B – LAD) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Russell Martin (C – TOR) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Yulieski Gurriel (3B – HOU) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Tony Watson (RP – PIT) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Cameron Bedrosian (RP – LAA) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jharel Cotton (SP – OAK) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Mitch Moreland (1B – BOS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Rajai Davis (OF – OAK) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Taylor Motter (SS – SEA) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Hernan Perez (3B – MIL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Shin-Soo Choo (OF – TEX) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Chris Devenski (RP – OAK) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Alex Cobb (SP – TB) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Bradley Zimmer (CLE – OF) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Matt Adams (1B – ATL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Wilmer Flores (3B – NYM) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
The Injury Movers
We’ve got a couple of big fallers this week because of injuries, with Dallas Keuchel, Chris Davis, and Jonathan Villar all taking serious plunges with injury news. Keuchel’s precipitous drop may seem a little extreme, but if you’re thinking about trading for him, you should have a few questions: Why has he already been DL’ed twice with a “stiff neck?” Are the Astros going to rush him back considering their substantial division lead? Why would anyone grow a beard that long? That last question has no impact on his trade value, but is a legitimate question nonetheless. The bottom line is that you’d want to be careful about dealing for Keuchel at this point, so his trade value has to drop.
As for Davis and Villar, both were having very underwhelming seasons, though each was contributing in his own way. Davis will likely be out another month, and there’s simply no timetable for Villar’s return at this point. They’re actually not terrible buy-low candidates at this stage, as their owners are surely willing to cut bait. But their trade value reflects their “buy-low” status.
Some others taking minor injury falls are Kyle Hendricks (setback with discomfort in his right hand), Noah Syndergaard (not ready to throw), and Victor Martinez (irregular heartbeat). Only Hendricks retains any significant value at this point, and he too is a buy-low candidate. The chances of Syndergaard pitching this year are rapidly declining given his slow progress and the Mets’ slim-to-nonexistent playoff chances. And while we don’t know exactly how long Martinez will be out, the fact that it’s a non-baseball injury, plus his slow start, means he certainly isn’t a trade candidate.
But, as always, it’s not all gloom and doom on the injury front. A.J. Pollock looks ready to begin a rehab assignment, which means he should be back in a couple of weeks. Pollock’s metrics looked far closer to his 2015 season than his abbreviated 2016 season, though it’s worth noting that his walk percentage and strikeout percentage are certainly worse thus far in 2017. But given his speed (11 steals in just 37 games) and the sterling offense he will be rejoining, he’s certainly a top-flight offensive option. And Mike Trout moves up a tad because, well, we’re one week closer to the best player in fantasy baseball returning!
Aroldis Chapman also gets a bump in value after being activated (Dellin Betances gets a corresponding move down), but he’s not automatically at peak Chapman value. The Zach Britton false start is still fresh in our minds, so let’s wait to make sure Chapman is Chapman before pushing him back up to the truly elite level.
Finally, Justin Bour gets a bump, to where he’s more than just a mere toss-in to a deal. Frankly, this is as much about his return from injury as it is from Bour being really, really good this season. Entering Sunday, he’s sixth in the league in hard-contact percentage (46.6%), eighth in the league in slugging percentage (.603), and seventh in the league in ISO (.304). So, to put that in layman’s terms, he’s hitting the ball really hard and really far. And, as we like to say in the fantasy community, that’s good. (Note: Though not an injury, Yonder Alonso gets a similar bump in trade value for pretty much identical reasons).
The Performance Movers
Edwin Encarnacion. On. Fire. Encarnacion has been a slow starter for several years now, but given his age and the ballpark change, his owners were certainly wondering if this was the end. But Eddie has answered, and answered with vigor. Since May 15, he has 11 homers, 25 RBIs, and a .343/.430/.717 slash line. I think his owners are . . . less concerned now. He gets a serious bump. (Note: That “answered with vigor” line is from Good Will Hunting. I like to throw movie lines into these articles. Either a few readers get it or people think I’m eccentric because of the weird language. Win-win, right?).
Unfortunately, I’m not quite as convinced that the annual second-half jump from Carlos Gonzalez is coming. We need to be careful with Cargo. Two years ago, he was legitimately dropped in several leagues because of an awful first quarter of the season, only to hit 30-plus homers the rest of the way as a waiver wire add. But we’re past the point where Gonzalez usually turns it on, and there have been zero signs that he’s coming out of it. Now, to be as fair as possible to the guy, he does have a career-high walk rate and nearly a career-low strikeout rate, and his line drive percentage is in line with his career levels. But his hard contact rate has absolutely fallen off the table – it’s a mere 28%, nearly seven percent below his career mark. That’s 143rd out of 165 qualified hitters. That’s REALLY bad. Now, that doesn’t mean he can’t turn it around. Advanced metrics largely explain what has happened (and what HAS happened is that Cargo has been terrible, not unlucky). But it’s completely possible that he’ll get hot and have his classic second-half surge. As you see from his value, I’m not relegating him to irrelevant status. I just think you should value him less today than this time last week.
I want to say that Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello are just unlucky, but I really don’t think I believe that anymore. Batters are hitting .471 against Tanaka’s four-seam fastball. I didn’t believe that number when I first saw it because, well, that’s just silly. He’s barely throwing the pitch at this point (just 7.1% of the time), but his sinker, which he throws a quarter of the time, doesn’t fare much better (.395 BAA). Now, if you want to be optimistic, the velocity on both pitches are fine, and he still gets good results with his slider and splitter (.195 and .250 BAA, respectively). The culprit seems to be pitch location with his fastball and sinker, as his heatmaps show more pitches in the heart of the zone. Of all things, pitch location seems to be most easily correctable, so don’t give Tanaka away, as he may still figure this out. But it’s hard to be overly optimistic at this point.
And Rick Porcello, I mean, watch him pitch one day and ask yourself how it’s possible that he won the Cy Young Award last year. He’s allowing a .366 BABIP against, second highest in the league. You might think, hmmm, well, maybe he’s just getting unlucky, right? Negative, ghostrider. That’s backed up by a league-leading 43.1% hard contact allowed and a 22% line drive percentage against. And his wonderful career ground ball rate of nearly 50%? Yeah, he’s at 37.2% this year. So, yeah, it’s not good. The thing is, there’s not all that much that’s different. Porcello is largely the same pitcher he always was, and his velocity is even up from last year. But the great luck he had last year is gone. He’s just the pre-2016 version of himself, which is a barely-relevant fantasy player. The only thing that stops me from dropping his value completely is that he actually had a pretty rough first two months last year before going on his his crazy run. So, I’ll hold out hope that it could happen again. But, as with Tanaka, I’m not optimistic.
(Note: Some guys whose slow starts have not moved me much off their preseason values: Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Carpenter, Carlos Santana, and Mark Trumbo. Just to bring it all full circle for you!)
The Newcomers
Finally, let’s mention some of the new additions to our trade chart. Think about it – a week ago, these guys had NO value at all. Now, they have . . . a really small amount of value. But, baby steps. Let’s welcome a few young pitchers in Francis Martes, Nick Pivetta, and Matt Strahm. I’m excited to see where all three of these guys can go, and I’m actually most excited about Strahm, though I admit I’m in the minority here. If you have the room, add either or both, and let’s see where this ride goes.
Other newcomers include Chris Taylor, Tom Murphy, Sean Doolittle, Derek Fisher, and Wilmer Flores. Not much to discuss here – they do have a value of one, after all, though add Doolittle if you’re saves speculating, and add Murphy if you’re struggling at catcher. And if they get added to an absolutely totally fair deal otherwise, then you’ve won the trade! Way to go!
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
