Skip to main content

Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitcher Rankings: (6/12 – 6/18)

Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitcher Rankings: (6/12 – 6/18)

Here once again are your tiered Two-Start Pitcher Rankings for this upcoming week. As always, remember that pitching rotations are constantly changing due to weather, injury, performance woes, DL shenanigans, and so forth. Best of luck this week!

SET IT, FORGET IT

1. Stephen Strasburg (6/12 ATL, 6/17 @NYM)
2. David Price (6/13 PHI, 6/18 @HOU)
3. Yu Darvish (6/12 @HOU, 6/18 SEA)

A balky neck has sent Houston ace Dallas Keuchel to the DL, making this week’s no-doubter tier a three-man show. There are probably some fantasy teams who roster one of either the thriving Strasburg (25.3 K-BB% over last month) or the electric Darvish (10.7 K/9 over his last six starts) along with the recently activated Price (27.1% hard contact through three starts), and you better believe those teams are positively amped for Week 11.

Import your team to My Playbook for custom advice all season partner-arrow

LOWER UPPER

4. Jacob deGrom (6/12 CHC, 6/17 WSH)
The past week has been a hell on earth for deGrom owners, with the Mets youngster surrendering 15 earned over eight innings in his past two starts. Those owners now face one of the season’s least enviable start/sit decisions: bench your early-round ace in a two-start week or look down the barrel of two of MLB’s deadliest offenses.

It can’t be much solace that the Cubs and Nats have managed below average weighted production over the last month, not when deGrom has allowed a 48.5-percent hard contact rate over this nightmarish two-start stretch. Even so, I imagine all but the most pitching-rich owners in the shallowest leagues are saying their prayers and rolling deGrom out there.

5. Jimmy Nelson (6/13 @STL, 6/17 SD)
A six-start stretch with a 2.33 ERA and 10.7 K/9 has Nelson’s ownership soaring, and that trend should continue as the post-hype righty has arguably the most favorable two-start matchup of the week, squaring off against two squads that have rated bottom-four in weighted production against righties over the last month. Nelson’s a must-start in all but the very shallowest formats. You could talk me into favoring him over deGrom.

6. Lance Lynn (6/13 MIL, 6/17 @BAL)
We’ve been waiting and waiting for the other shoe to drop on the major gap between Lynn’s ERA (2.88) and xFIP (4.33), but the 30-year-old Cardinal keeps outperforming his peripherals, thanks in part to a rejuvenated slider that’s tallied a -15 wRC+ with close to a 30% K-BB across 170 offerings. Expect both the Birds and the Brew Crew to bite–Milwaukee and Baltimore are top-eight in the league in terms of chase rate. 

7. Jason Vargas (6/13 @SF, 6/18 @LAA)
By hook or crook, Vargas and his 2.18 ERA trail only Dallas Keuchel on the AL leaderboard, though his 5.32 xFIP over the last month suggests that there are cracks in the veneer. That looming negative regression is unlikely to steamroll Vargas this week, as he lines up against a Giants team that’s relieved to no longer be scraping the very bottom of the MLB leaderboard and an Angels squad that’s averaged fewer than four runs per game since Trout hit the shelf.

8. C.C. Sabathia (6/12 @LAA, 6/17 @OAK)
9. Michael Pineda (6/13 @LAA, 6/18 @OAK)
A west coast two-step should be kind to the quietly thriving Yankees staff. Sabathia owners should be especially geeked–look at that 1.13 ERA (backed by a not-too-shabby 3.17 xFIP) over past two weeks. Note also how the last month of play has found the Angels and Athletics both below average in production against lefties at home. Be advised that Pineda’s bad 1.63 HR/9 does lend him substantial floor against an Oakland squad that’s number one in team ISO against righties at home; I wouldn’t blame owners who don’t especially need his strikeout upside if they thought twice.

FIXER UPPER

10. Rick Porcello (6/12 PHI, 6/17 @HOU)
If you, like so many baffled Porcello owners, are fishing for explanations for his underwhelming 2017 returns, take a look at the trends on his changeup, which has surrendered 81 or fewer wRC+ over three of the past five seasons. As with his 4.92 ERA season in 2015, this year the changeup is performing quite poorly, allowing a .980 OPS to match 2015’s .910 mark. The difference is that this year that pitch has incurred a .375 BABIP, compared to .280 in 2015 and .266 on his career.

Luckily for Porcello, the Phillies have graded dead last in production off the change over the last month. Quite unluckily, though, Porcello lines up to take his lumps against the Astros, the MLB’s top offense over that span. Owners who can live without Porcello might want to sit this one out, but deep-leaguers might not have the luxury.

11. Mike Leake (6/13 MIL, 6/18 @BAL)
The sub-seven K/9 and 82% strand rate indicates that Leake’s 2.70 ERA should look closer to his 3.64 xFIP going forward, and this might be the week that the regression kicks in, even if Milwaukee’s bottom-third team ISO over the past month is a far cry from their smoking early-season production. Baltimore has struggled against righties at home thus far, so there’s a chance Leake can keep his head above water here.

12. John Lackey (6/12 @NYM, 6/18 @PIT)
The fly-ball revolution has taken a bite out of John Lackey’s fantasy stock, with the 15-year vet surrendering an unprecedented two-plus long balls per nine compared to a career rate just below one. Based on recent success against righties, the matchups here figure to be the best of times (.209 team ISO for the Mets on the month) and the worst of times (.150 ISO for the Pirates). Lackey has a more palatable 1.2 HR/9 on the road, for what it’s worth.

STREAM INTRIGUE

13. Trevor Bauer (6/13 LAD, 6/18 @MIN)
It’s hard to tell the degree to which Trevor Bauer’s enticing four-start stretch from late May (1.78 xFIP, 14.5 K/9) is sustainable when his two follow-up starts were rain-shortened and then Coors Field-tainted. For what it’s worth, the Dodgers and Twins are both bottom-half producers against righties this month.  Bauer has the kind of downside that can torpedo your weekly rations, and he did walk five Rockies in three-plus innings his last time out–we’re not out of the woods yet. But his upside is tremendous for a player with this sort of wide availability.

14. Buck Farmer (6/13 ARI, 6/18 TB)
Nothing’s official yet, but you’ve got to figure that Farmer has earned an extended look with Detroit after slinging 13 scoreless innings with a 28.3 K-BB% to boot. Both the Diamondbacks and (quite surprisingly) the Rays have been above average producers against righties on the month, though, so Farmer should have his work cut out for him. Odds are Farmer’s scoreless streak will come to an end, but that killer changeup (with a 20.3% whiff rate on 59 offerings) makes the young Tiger a high-upside streamer.

15. Kyle Freeland (6/12 @PIT, 6/17 SF)
16. Tyler Chatwood (6/13 @PIT, 6/18 SF)
I’m usually looking right past middling Colorado arms with starts at home, but the matchups here are too good to pass up. The surprising lefty Freeland is in a nice spot to thrive, as the Giants have been D.O.A. against lefties for a month running, while the Pirates have mustered a minuscule .110 team ISO against southpaws over that span.

And wouldn’t you know it, the Giants and Pirates are just as bad against right-handers on the season, with both mustering bottom-third wRC+ marks on the season against righties (with the Giants dead last). In a week very light on streamer intrigue, you can tap these Rockies with relative confidence.

17. Alec Asher (6/13 @CWS, 6/18 STL)
18. Wade Miley (6/12 @CWS, 6/17 STL)
As of this writing, the scuffling Cardinals have a dreadful .666 OPS against lefties over the last month–the devil’s work, indeed. But as bad as St. Louis has been against southpaws, the White Sox have been terrific, with a top-two wRC+ across the majors versus lefties.

If you’re focused on your counting stats rather than your ratios, you could do worse than rolling Miley out there. The risk-averse streamers might prefer Asher, hoping that Chicago’s bottom-four wRC+ against righties is enough to mask the 25-year-old’s dueling bad fastballs.

19. Joe Ross (6/13 ATL, 6/18 @NYM)
Who knows which Joe Ross will show up this week? Will it be the one who struck out 12 in his last start or the one who tallied a 7.20 ERA in his three previous?

The Braves at home and Mets on the road have both limped to low-90s in wRC+ against righties this month, but it’s hard to read too much into the matchups with Ross, who not long ago got shelled by the lowly Padres for 12 hits in four innings. Ross’ ownership will spike this week, for sure, and so might your blood pressure if you start him, but you can’t deny he’s one of the more intriguing widely available two starters this week.

DESPERATE STREAMING

20. Alex Meyer (6/12 NYY, 6/17 KC)
21. J.C. Ramirez (6/13 NYY, 6/18 KC)
If you want to run these Halos out to pick on the hapless Royals, the price of admission is an early-week jaunt with the Yankees, who have been righty-killers this year. Favor Meyer for the strikeout upside (10.5 K/9), but close your eyes when you get to the walk rate (6.2 BB/9).

22. Jerad Eickhoff (6/12 @BOS, 6/17 ARI)
Eickhoff’s lost command of his cutter, giving back five percentage points of swinging strike rate and adding about that to the pitch’s walk rate, netting him a near 3.5 BB/9 on the season compared to his sub-two mark last season. Streamers in a pinch can roll the dice here in the hopes that the start against Boston (who have been in quite a funk against righties over the last month) can offset the potential damage suffered at the hands of the hot-hitting D-backs.

23. Mike Foltynewicz (6/12 @WSH, 6/17 MIA)
If you’re like me, you streamed Folty in for his masterful start against the Royals this week. And if you’re like me, you took one look at that visit to Washington, thanked Folty for his services, and sent him back to the pond.

Maybe you’re not like me, though. Maybe you’re willing to throw Folty out there against a Washington team that has savaged lefties at home all season, hoping that Miami’s sub-par production against lefties will sooth your aches and pains. If that’s the case, you’re a braver man (or woman–let’s be fair) than I.

PERSONA NON GRATA

24. Jake Odorizzi (6/13 @TOR, 6/18 @DET)
25. Zack Wheeler (6/13 CHC, 6/18 WSH)
26. Derek Holland (6/13 BAL, 6/18 @TOR)
27. Jharel Cotton (6/13 @MIA, 6/18 NYY)
28. Christian Bergman (6/13 @MIN, 6/18 @TEX)
29. Bronson Arroyo (6/12 @SD, 6/18 LAD)
30. Adalberto Mejia (6/12 SEA, 6/17 CLE)
31. Ben Lively (6/13 @BOS, 6/18 ARI)
32. Yovani Gallardo (6/12 @MIN, 6/17 @TEX)
33. Dillon Gee (6/12 @HOU, 6/18 SEA)
34. Chad Kuhl (6/12 COL, 6/18 CHC)
35. Ty Blach (6/13 KC, 6/18 @COL)
36. Mike Pelfrey (6/12 BAL, 6/17 @TOR)

Odorizzi, Wheeler, and Holland are the notable widely-owned names in the “no thank you” class. I’m keeping Odorizzi at arm’s length with these matchups, both against teams who have shown tremendous power production at home against righties of late. There’s simply no talking me into Wheeler’s gauntlet of a two-start week, not when most of what Wheeler offers is strikeout upside, while the Cubs and Nats just don’t whiff all that prolifically. And as expected Holland has turned into a pumpkin, with a 6.19 ERA and 42.7% hard contact over the last month. His ownership should continue its downward tailspin despite the two-start assignment this week.

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Tom Whalen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tom, check out his archive or follow him @tomcwhalen.

window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:”fpros_cards”};

More Articles

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 5 min read
Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 10 min read
MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

fp-headshot by Josh Shepardson | 1 min read
Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Jordan Romano, Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Jordan Romano, Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald (2024)

fp-headshot by Austin Lowell | 4 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

5 min read

Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Next Up - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice: Week 1 (2024)

Next Article