Here are your lovingly tiered Two-Start Pitcher Rankings for this upcoming week. As always, remember that pitching rotations are constantly changing due to weather, injury, performance woes, DL shenanigans, and so forth. At the risk of tempting fate, break a leg this week!

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SET IT, FORGET IT

1. Max Scherzer (6/6 @LAD, 6/11 TEX)
A rare beacon of consistency in the ravaged starter landscape, Scherzer has been reliably great this year and downright dynamite over the last month, with a 2.27 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, and 30-plus percent K-BB across 43.2 May innings. Needless to say, get your boy out there.

2. Chris Archer (6/6 CWS, 6/11 OAK)
The Rays ace got BABIP’d to death in May, with that 63.7-percent strand rate a major player in the near-two-run difference between his ERA and FIP. Archer’s in a nice spot to get off the shneid against the White Sox, who under-produce against righties, and the Athletics, who strike out a bunch against everybody. Don’t let the un-stellar ERA fool you–Archer belongs in your lineup.

3. James Paxton (6/6 MIN, 6/11 TOR)
Toronto and Minny have both been passable producers off lefties this month, but there’s no real need for matchup analysis here. Paxton, who threw 84-percent first-pitch strikes in his first start back from injury, is back to being a must-start in all formats. The only real concern is a limited pitch count.

4. Carlos Martinez (6/5 @CIN, 6/10 PHI)
The Reds’ early-season surge has slowed, but they were still a top-third offensive producer against righties in May. No such bounty for the futile Phillies, who rank down there with the Giants and Padres in terms of team OPS against right-handers on the month. So long as Martinez can navigate the Reds’ power bats, he should be in for another banner week.

5. Justin Verlander (6/6 LAA, 6/11 @BOS) 
Even a strong outing against the Royals left the Tigers vet with 4.42 ERA (and equally damning 4.82 FIP) in May. Four walks per nine will do that to you, of course. The Trout-less Angels might have the worst lineup in baseball, though, and while the Sox will take a walk, they’ve registered a below-average ISO against righties this month. Verlander remains a plus play in all leagues despite the Fenway factor.

6. Ivan Nova (6/6 @BAL, 6/11 MIA)
Will the walk-rate regression begin this week for the impossibly stingy Pirates veteran? Don’t count on it. If this past month’s work against righties is any indication, the Marlins and Orioles will have trouble coaxing the rare free pass out of a guy who’s averaged fewer than a walk per nine this season. Until the low-K, low-BB wonder turns into a pumpkin, he’s a top-tier starter in all leagues.

7. Robbie Ray (6/6 SD, 6/11 MIL)
Ray had quite a month of May indeed, his 2.56 ERA buoyed by a five-plus percent decline in walk rate. Meanwhile, his massive strikeout rate held steady (quite literally–at 30.2%, it was identical to his March/April mark) thanks to that 23-percent-whiffs slider and his new, improved 15-percent-whiffs curveball. Ray should buzz right through the Padres, who trail only the whiff-happy Rays in terms of strikeout rate against righties on the season. The Brewers aren’t too far behind, either, and while the Milwaukee bats could make some noise at Chase Field, Ray’s owners have to be pretty gun shy to not have him active for a week that could net them 20-plus strikeouts.

DICEY ACES

8. Jeff Samardzija (6/5 @MIL, 6/10 MIN)
Owners who bought low on Shark’s massive ERA/xFIP discrepancy were duly rewarded in May, with the big Giant posting a 3.32 ERA and a stellar 49/1 strikeout-per-walk rate. With Braun on the shelf, Thames slumping, and Jonathan Villar largely MIA, Samardzija has a puncher’s chance against the humbled Brewers, even at Miller Park, with Milwaukee grading about league average in terms of production against righties over the last month. I might be more anxious about the visiting Twins this weekend, the league’s best offense against sliders. There’s some wicked downside here, but only the most pitching-rich owners can afford to sit Samardzija.

9. Masahiro Tanaka (6/6 BOS, 6/11 BAL)
After tangling with a Boston squad that hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse from the left side, Tanaka gets a second shot at a Baltimore team that just took the shine off of his throwback 13-K Oakland outing. You’ve gotta think that Tanaka’s 21-plus percent HR/FB has some push back coming. After all, seven of his 14 (!) homers surrendered this season have been concentrated in a mere two starts. Meanwhile, his velocity is up, swinging strikes up, contact rate down. Owners in shallower formats can probably afford a conservative approach with Tanaka, but in 12-teams or deeper, I’d still be rolling him out there.

10. Jake Arrieta (6/6 MIA, 6/11 COL)
The erstwhile Cubs ace is a dicier play than you might expect. The Marlins and Rockies both struggle against the slider, though Arietta’s has been a nightmare this year, surrendering a 1.117 OPS thus far in 2017 compared to .688 last season and .508 the year previous. Shallow leaguers wouldn’t be out of line to give the Cubs lefty a week off.

RISK, REWARD

11. Adam Wainwright (6/6 @CIN, 6/11 PHI)
Don’t look now, but Waino is on a bit of a run, notching a 2.21 ERA and 3.26 FIP since the start of May. The rugged veteran Cardinal can certainly pick on the Phillies with that big ol’ curveball, but you’ll notice he’s less likely to have success with that pitch against the Reds. You’re not dying to start him at the Great American Ballpark, but unless you’ve got a wealth of alternatives, you might be married to it.

12. Drew Pomeranz (6/6 @NYY, 6/11 DET)
Pomeranz has turned his season around over the past two weeks, tallying a 2.20 ERA over his last two starts despite an outsized 3.57 BABIP. Indeed, 13.2 K/9 goes a long way towards soothing batted ball woes. He’s in a nice spot to keep the Ks against a Yankees squad that’s top-five in strikeout rate against lefties in May. Indeed, the short porch hasn’t been there for the Bombers this month–they Yanks have a 68 wRC+ against lefties at home over that span. Then again, the surging Detroit Tigers (with it’s 116 May wRC+) won’t roll over so easy. Pomeranz has some major strikeout upside, but there’s some serious downside here too.

13. Jose Quintana (6/6 @TB, 6/11 @CLE)
Fastball command has vexed the struggling White Sox ace all season. He’s already walked 18 hitters with his fastball after walking 22 with the pitch all of last season. And while the Rays are the most whiff-prone of all MLB teams against lefties, they’re also top-five in terms of walk rate against southpaws. It’ll be another long week for Quintana if he can’t hit his spots, with a weekend date against an Indians team that can hold its own against lefties not exactly inspiring confidence. It’s getting harder and harder to have faith in Quintana. The deeper your league, the less choice you have, but I don’t mind sitting him in standards.

14. Sean Manaea (6/5 TOR, 6/11 TB)
The no-longer-slumbering Jays bats have been aces against lefties this month, taking walks and hitting for power, which puts the young Oakland southpaw in a tough spot to start the week. Manaea will need to chisel away at that 3.54 BB/9 to keep Toronto in check. He might have an easier time with the strikeout-heavy Rays, but as with Quintana, he’ll really need to keep the free passes in check to stay in the game.

15. Dan Straily (6/5 @CHC, 6/10 @PIT)
Straily is fresh off a 10-K performance against the Phillies, but his owners in daily changes will almost certainly be sitting him against the Cubbies this week, reactivating him to face Pirates team that’s been a punching bag for starter streamers all season. That might be an overly conservative play. The Cubs managed a mere 80 wRC+ against righties in May. Still, Straily’s subdued 9.2 HR/fly rate likely has some push back coming, so if you’re obliged to lock your lineups on Monday, there’s no shame in playing it safe and benching Straily.

16. Aaron Nola (6/6 @ATL, 6/11 @STL)
It’s tempting to cry foul on Nola’s 5.06 ERA when his xFIP stands at a more-palatable 3.75, but you can’t take for granted that his ballooned 15-plus percent HR/FB will normalize when he maintained a 14-percent rate in essentially a full season’s worth of MLB work between abbreviated campaigns in 2015 and 2016. Still, neither lineup here has been especially menacing against righties, and Nola’s actually been slightly better on the road (4.50 ERA) than at home (6.00 ERA) this year. Deep-leaguers could do worse.

17. Gio Gonzalez (6/5 @LAD, 6/10 TEX)
Gonzalez is the widely-owned pitcher that I’m least likely to deploy this week. The Dodgers are no longer the lefty streaming target that they were during the early weeks of the season, instead tallying the second-best wRC+ against southpaws in the league over the past month. The Rangers’ production along those lines has been merely league average, but with a top-four ISO against lefties this month, Texas could be poised to tag Gio with the ERA regression that he’s been dancing around for weeks. It might not take much to talk me into favoring most of the streamers in the next tier over Gonzalez this week.

STREAM APPEAL

18. J.A. Happ (6/5 @OAK, 6/11 @SEA)
19. Hector Santiago (6/6 @SEA, 6/11 @SF)
I imagine ownership for both Happ and Santiago will take a major spike this weekend. While most sharp owners know that Happ’s career 2016 was a mirage (as is the small-sample strikeout boost in 2017), this trip out west puts Happ in two pitcher-friendly ballparks and thus on the shallow-league streamer map. Same for Santiago, whose ballooning home run rate could sure use a nice two-start week’s worth of favorable parks and scuffling offenses.

20. Jaime Garcia (6/6 PHI, 6/11 NYM)
21. Bartolo Colon (6/5 PHI, 6/10 NYM)
Your league-worst offensive producers by a mile over the last month, the Phillies are a no-brainer target for pitching streamers, though the Cespedes-less Mets held their own over that span, particularly on the road, where their weighted production is second only to the mighty Astros. If you’re streaming whichever of Colon and Garcia is up for grabs, you’re ready to take the good with the bad.

22. Mike Fiers (6/5 @KC, 6/10 LAA)
Fiers hasn’t been all that inspiring this season, but the Astros are set up with a dream two-start against the no-Trout Angels and a Kansas City team whose been striking out less but still rounding out the MLB’s bottom third in terms of offensive production.

DESPERATE STREAMING

23. Junior Guerra (6/5 SF, 6/10 @ARI)
24. Chase Anderson (6/6 SF, 6/11 @ARI)
Savvy streamers will smell a rat when they see that Guerra’s 1.84 ERA over 18-plus innings is backed up by a not-so-tidy 4.45 xFIP. Check out that near-four BB/9 and a near-99-percent strand rate. Something’s gotta give, indeed.  Meanwhile, the returns on Anderson’s more effective changeup (56 wRC+ allowed this year compared to 110 in 2016) isn’t quite enough to dissuade me that the young Brewer is due for some homer-rate regression, with no discernible skills change to back up a near halving of his career HR/FB. Sure, Anderson and Guerra should have no problem handling the puny Giants, but the weekend series at Chase Field will find them in hot water. Thrill-seeking streamers only.

25. Ian Kennedy (6/6 HOU, 6/11 @SD)
The San Diego start bears some deep-league intrigue, but the Houston start has me holding him at arm’s length. Kennedy’s a major home run liability, and the Astros have lead the majors in team ISO over the last month.

26. Eddie Butler (6/5 MIA, 6/10 COL)
Granted, he hasn’t tallied 20 MLB innings, but it’s hardly encouraging that Butler’s K/9 and BB/9 both hover around six and a half. Neither Miami or the Rockies have produced against righties of late, though, so even a presently chilly Cubs offense could put Butler in position to bring home a W or two for deep-leaguers in a pinch.

27. Dinelson Lamet (6/6 @ARI, 6/11 KC)
We’ll certainly see the cut of this promising young rookie’s jib when he takes his swing-and-miss stuff to Arizona, where the D-backs boast a team-wide OPS of .875, the best home mark in the majors. More a flyer than a plug-and-play this week, deep leaguers who are backed into a corner on their pitching depth can hope that the KC start soothes the Chase Field bruises.

PERSONA NON-GRATA

28. Kevin Gausman (6/6 PIT, 6/11 @NYY)
29. Lisalverto Bonilla (6/5 STL, 6/10 @LAD)
30. Tim Adleman (6/6 STL, 6/11 @LAD)
31. Antonio Senzatela (6/6 CLE, 6/11 @CHC)
32. Jesse Chavez (6/6 @DET, 6/11 @HOU)
33. Vance Worley (6/6 @CHC, 6/11 @PIT)
34. Matt Cain (6/6 @MIL, 6/11 MIN)
Gausman’s the only surprise on this list of two-start stay-aways. Pittsburgh’s been quietly excellent on the road over the past two weeks (though stops in hitter-friendly Chase Field and SunTrust Park might be mitigating factors here), and the Yanks have blasted righties at home all year. Point blank, there’s no trusting Gausman with his go-to splitter and slider getting thrashed, the latter for a profane 238 wRC+ across 169 offerings on the season. You’d have to be an utter masochist to hand the keys to Gausman this week, and the same goes for the rest of this motley crew of low-end hurlers.

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