Have you ever watched a movie and weren’t quite sure how you felt about it? But then you watched it again and you really started to like it. That’s kind of what we’re doing here.
“Third Year WRs” are still a thing, but in the modern NFL, neither teams nor fantasy owners tend to that patient with players. If a receiver isn’t productive by the end of his second season, the aura of “bust” already begins to surround him. Here’s a look at a few sophomore WRs poised for an increase in production.
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Buried behind Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Jamison Crowder, the man I believe to be the best receiver out of the 2016 draft barely saw the field last season. Garcon is now in San Francisco and DJax is in Tampa. The Redskins signed Terrelle Pryor and he’ll be the No. 1, but Crowder is not leaving the slot. That opens the door for Doctson to seize control of the other flanker position. And seize control he will.
Lest we forgot how well the TCU product profiled coming out of college. The guy ran a 4.5 40 with great agility metrics and a 96th percentile catch radius. As long as he stays healthy, he should easily beat out Brian Quick for the spot opposite Pryor, and the Redskins throw a ton. Kirk Cousins is quite capable of supporting three fantasy receivers. He did it last year. I’m not expecting Doctson to become the 2013 version of Pierre Garcon overnight (113-1,346-5), but if he can match what Garcon did last year (79-1,041-3), perhaps adding a couple more scores, he can return mid-round fantasy value, which is great for a guy barely being drafted right now.
I think if Corey Coleman doesn’t break his hand last year, the breakout I expect to happen this year would have already happened. A lot of things conspired against Coleman in 2016. His flukey injury at practice. Josh McCown, Robert Griffin, and Cody Kessler. The Browns being the Browns in general. While the 2017 QB situation isn’t much better, Coleman enters the season as the clear No. 1 receiver. More important, he’s the top target for a relatively untalented group of QBs who will be more inclined to play it safe with shorter passes and more underneath routes. That’s Coleman’s territory. Kenny Britt runs down the field and jumps really high. Coleman is the technician. There’s a misconception that because Coleman runs a 4.2 40 that he’s a burner. Just because he can burn doesn’t make him a burner. Will Fuller is a burner because all he can do is run straight. Coleman can and will do so much more. By the time drafts roll around, I anticipate Coleman’s ADP climbing to the mid-to-late single digits. This is a guy that can return 4th or 5th round value. Don’t shy away when the time comes.
This one is more of a dart throw than the rest. Cooper did just about nothing last year. But the Rams were also coached by Jeff Fisher last year and Jeff Fisher encapsulates everything that a head coach shouldn’t do. Right now, Robert Woods is the Rams No. 1 receiver. I don’t hate Woods. Not at all. But how sure are we Woods is actually going to be the top guy? I don’t know what’s more amazing – the fact that Woods has been in the NFL for four years already or the fact that he’s still just 25? There are two sides to that coin. On the one hand, a breakout is far from impossible given he’s so young. On the other hand, it’s been four years already and he’s been “just a guy.”
Cooper is admittedly not like the typical prospect I’d flag. His workout metrics are abysmal, and he’s tied to Jared Goff, who I do not think is very good. But Tavon Austin is never going to be more than a situational gadget man. He is who we thought he was – a very, very poor man’s Percy Harvin. Between Cooper Kupp, Mike Thomas, and Pharoh Cooper, one of them must be the guy lining up across from Woods. To that I say: why not the Pharoh? His current cost is literally nothing and I don’t really see that changing. While others are taking shots at third and fourth receivers buried on depth charts, go ahead and throw your dart at a guy with a much clearer path to starting.
This one involves a lot more variables, but Anderson could end up being the Jets top receiver in 2017. For starters, he’s already proven he can succeed at the NFL level, which is an accomplishment in and of itself for an undrafted free agent. The good: he’s 6’3″ with solid workout metrics. He’s on a team that is going to be trailing a lot. His current competition for targets is Quincy Enunwa. That’s it. Enunwa is the No. 1. Anderson is the No. 2. Anderson looks the part and the opportunity is there. The bad: Josh McCown is 38 years old and hasn’t been healthy or productive in quite some time. If McCown were to go down, Bryce Petty has shown he cannot compete at the NFL level and Christian Hackenberg has shown he cannot even compete at practice. So Anderson does not come without risk. But we’re talking about a guy that doesn’t cost much to acquire, who has good measurables, and has proven he can make tough catches. It wouldn’t shock me in the least if Anderson finished the season as a top-36 receiver.
Is this cheating? It might be cheating. Breshad Perriman is technically in his third year in the league, but after not playing a snap in 2015, he’s a second-year receiver as far as I’m concerned. Now, a potential Jeremy Maclin or Eric Decker signing could put a damper on all the excitement, but right now, it’s just Perriman and Mike Wallace on a team that threw 672 times in 2016. Before John Ross happened, Perriman was the fastest player in the league. Joe Flacco loves the deep ball. There are 101 targets vacated by Steve Smith‘s retirement. Dennis Pitta‘s career is over. Not that Perriman and Pitta are comparable by any means, but that’s another 121 targets up for grabs. Why not Perriman? Even if the Ravens sign Decker or Maclin, there’s no reason Perriman can’t start on the outside with one of them and Wallace shuffling into the slot as needed. At this point in Wallace’s career, Perriman should be able to beat him out. And if Decker/Maclin go elsewhere, Perriman will be the other outside receiver. The Ravens don’t have anyone else. You can’t tell me you don’t want a guy who could see 100+ targets in a passing offense with little competition that costs nothing more than a late-round pick. I think this is the year for Perriman.
This article is supposed to just be second-year receivers I think will break out in some way. But why not discuss a second-year receiver that already broke out? I’m going to be as blunt as I can: do not draft Michael Thomas in the first or second round. There. I said it.
I need to be clear that I don’t think Thomas is a bad player. I just don’t think he’s a No. 1 receiver and I think he benefited greatly from the attention Brandin Cooks commanded. The Saints have the seventh most difficult strength of schedule for WRs in 2017. Last year, they had one of the easiest. Also, they had Cooks. Without going into too much detail about specific instances in specific games, there were clear patterns of Drew Brees zoning in on Michael Thomas when the opposing defenses took away Cooks followed by defenses adjusting to account for Thomas and Thomas not producing as effectively. Right now, Thomas’ ADP is pushing late first round. Even at early second, to me, that’s a little ridiculous for a second-year player coming off a surprisingly incredible year.
I think Thomas is a useful fantasy receiver, and I’d be surprised if he finished any lower than a WR2. At the same time, I don’t think the fantasy community is really grasping how much Cooks helped him last year or how talented of a player Cooks truly is. A full season as the top guy facing the opposing team’s top corner is going to really test Thomas. “Fast” Willie Snead four or five rounds later offers far better value.
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.
