Top 400 Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings (June)
Starting today, I am going to be posting my updated rest of the season rankings every month for fantasy baseball leagues. Think of it as a trade guide, a waiver wire tool or whatever you are looking for. Today, I’ll break down five of the more controversial rankings, but if you have any further qualms or questions, don’t hesitate to get at me on twitter @bobbyfantasypro.
What in the world is Anthony Rizzo doing atop my board?
Well you see, friend, Rizzo is now second base eligible. If you thought Jose Altuve might be worthy of a top three pick this spring, just imagine a middle infielder who is a full two standard deviations better in HRs and RBI above him. That is Anthony Rizzo, and sure, he isn’t going to steal 56 bases like Altuve once did, but that isn’t the Altuve we are seeing this season. Rather, he is on pace for just 27 swiped bags which is just 1 standard deviation above Rizzo’s pace. There is a considerable batting average difference at this point in time, but consider that Rizzo has been a .285 over a steady three-year sample size leading up to this year and as a 27-year-old there are no concerns of him slowing down. What’s more is that his line drive percentage and exit velocity has remained steady, so positive regression should be anticipated for his BABIP. What it boils down to is that when you are a full 1.5 standard deviations above Altuve in 5×5 leagues, you are the king.
Are you delusional ranking Billy Hamilton in your top 40?
I sincerely appreciate the sanity check, but I can assure you I am quite alright. Sure, his batting average will remain below average for the remainder of the year and he won’t hit for any power, but we all know for sure that he could single-handedly move a roto team from 10th out of 12 to 3rd out of 12 in stolen bases just by owning him for the final 100 games. He will almost definitely provide you 45 steals during that time which when compared to other roto statistics above the mean, is the equivalent of someone hitting 80 homers the rest of the season or winning 25 games the rest of the season or saving 65 games the rest of the season. The best thing about Hamilton is that you can get him for pennies right now.
Do you actually have a good reason for clinging onto hope with Rougned Odor?
I do, indeed! Last season, Odor was a top 50 fantasy player last season as a 22-year-old, and as a former top 30 prospect, it is reasonable to assume he hadn’t hit his ceiling yet. Now here is the kicker: he is the exact same player as last year so far. Identical exit velos, identical line drive percentage, identical k-rate, increased BB-rate and stealing more bases. The only difference is that his BABIP if a whopping 50 points lower and his HR/FB ratio is depressed. Both of those are purely luck-driven when the underlying metrics remain the same. Expect the same exact power-hitting second basemen the remainder of the year as we saw last season.
David Peralta is NOT actually a top 100 player, right?
Well, he hasn’t technically been one thus far in 2017, but it sure has been close. As I write this, he sits at #112 thanks to a power/speed combo and a solid .314 batting average. As most of us are aware, heat plays a big role in making a hitting atmosphere, and Peralta plays the remainder of the schedule in scorching heat. Most importantly, this strong start is by no means a fluke. In fact, over his past 6 healthy months, his triple-slash lines have been as follows:
Folks, that is a top 100 fantasy baseball player, especially when you mix speed into the equation. Don’t sell high on him if you own him, and if you don’t, we can still buy low even though he is playing well.
Nick Castellanos in the top 150 is the final straw!
I’ll do my best to contain the “I told you so” when he destroys the American League in the second half. Well, in my opinion, he already did in the first half, but the standard stats just aren’t displaying it. You see, Castellanos is third in baseball in line drive percentage, second in hard-hit percentage and 100th in BABIP. That doesn’t make any sense and is the stat most due for correction in the second-half. The batted ball stats are sticky and should remain in place in the second-half. The batting average and power numbers should soar through the roof.
Without further ado, here is the full list. Enjoy!