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3 Bounce-Back Wide Receivers (Fantasy Football)

3 Bounce-Back Wide Receivers (Fantasy Football)

Hold your hand up and make the “okay”ย ๐Ÿ‘Œย hand symbol. When you do that how many fingers are pointing up? Hopefully, it’s three. Which is why you will be A-OK if you draft these three wide receivers in 2017.

If you enjoy finding bounce-back players then I would suggest reading my articleย 3 Bounce-Back Runningย Backs.

View real time recommendations for each pick with our Draft Assistant partner-arrow

Sammy Watkins (BUF)

Speaking of being A-OK. I think Watkins is a major bounce-back candidate simply because he will be healthy and play more than 14 games this season. If he plays more than 14 games this season I believe he has the upside to be a WR1. He has been plagued by injuries his entire career and last season finished the season with only 28 receptions for 430 yards and two touchdowns. That being said I am a man who bets on talent which Sammy Watkins clearly has. We shouldn’t forget he was drafted ahead of guys such as Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. in the 2014 NFL Draft. That talent flashed in the final six games of 2015 where he had 35 receptions for 679 yards and six touchdowns. If you would project that over a full season, you’re looking at 93 receptions, 1,811 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Now I don’t project this, but he does have incredible upside and is only 24 years old entering his fourth season with the cherry on top that it’s a contract year.

In a contract year, players tend to fight through injuries and prepare their bodies like never before.ย Watkins had a screw inserted into his foot which led to his injury-riddled 2016 and in January had a second surgery on that same foot. When a player gets a second surgery for a Jones fracture many times they are healthy enough to play without issue. A great example of this is Julio Jones. Jones suffered an injury-riddled first three seasons just like Watkins from the Jones fracture which you can see below.

Since the second surgery, Jones has only missed three games in three seasons. Everything that I have been reading and listening too suggests that the doctor who performed both surgeries on Watkins, Dr. Robert Anderson, is more than confident Watkins will be a safe bet to be healthy going forward.

Believe me, I totally understand your concern drafting Watkins, but the stars are aligning for him to not only bounce back but have the breakout season we have been waiting on.

Allen Robinson (JAC)

When looking at Robinson for 2017 it’s hard to see past the disappointing season he experienced in 2016. How much of the bad year was due to Robinson, though? Yes, he deserves some blame, but all of the blame isn’t fair. First, let’s start with the coaching. Taking coaching advice from Gus Bradley is like taking life lessons from Peter Griffin, something I wouldn’t recommend. Try to wrap your brain around the idea that Bradley has the second worst winning percentage in NFL history only behind a guy named Bert Bell who coached the Browns from 1936-1941. Who the heck is Bert Bell?! The other reason for Robinson’s struggles was poor quarterback play from Blake Bortles who was dealing with two separated shoulders for most of the last season.

So, why am I optimistic about Robinson heading into 2017? As I stated before the Jaguars will no longer have Bradley on the sidelines and good coaches get the ball to their best players. In the two games that Bradley didn’t coach in 2016, Robinson had 12 targets in both contests. He was able to put up 14 catches for 229 yards in those two games. Positive regression is the second reason. One of my favorite stats from myย 100 Fantasy Football Stats Heading into 2017 article has to be: Allen Robinson was the only wide receiver who had over 150 targets and under 900 receiving yards in 2016. With such a heavy amount of targets, wide receivers put up numbers. Plus he had 19 red zone targets which were ranked ninth in the NFL, and he only produced six touchdowns compared to 14 the year before. In 2015 he had 80 catches for 1,400 yards, and 14 touchdowns on 153 targets compared to 2016 where he had 73 catches for 883 and six touchdowns on 151 targets.

With a player as talented as Robinson (91st percentile according to SPARQ) and with his target share, I would expect his numbers to be somewhere in the middle of his last two seasons which is why I am projecting Robinson’s numbers to be around 76 catches, 1,142 yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2017.

John Brown (ARI)

It seems like great minds think alike, FantasyPros head writerย ย Mike Tagliere agrees in his section of 10 Players That Will Bounce Back (Fantasy Football)ย that John Brown is a major candidate to bounce back in 2017. In 2016 Brown discovered he carries the sickle cell trait. This hampered Brown all season long and it showed in his numbers. Brown experienced career lows in receptions (39), targets (72), yards (517), and touchdowns (two) in 2016.

Let us not forget how talented John Brown is and the fact that when he was drafted he was being compared to players such as Antonio Brown and even Marvin Harrison. When comparing their size it’s scary how similar they are.

  • John Brown: 5โ€™11″ 179 LBS
  • Antonio Brown: 5โ€™10″ 180 LBS
  • Marvin Harrison: 5โ€™10″ 180 LBS

The next amazing comparison was how similar their stats were through the first three seasons, minus the touchdowns.

  • John Brown: 152 receptions – 2,216 yards – 14 touchdowns
  • Antonio Brown: 151 receptions- 2,062 yards – 7 touchdowns
  • Marvin Harrison: 196 receptions – 2,478 yards – 21 touchdowns

So, obviously, I wanted to see what Antonio Brown and Marvin Harrison did in year four since John Brown is entering year four.

  • Antonio Brown Year Four: 110 receptions – 1,499 yards – eight touchdowns
  • Marvin Harrison Year Four: 115 receptions – 1,663 yards – 12 touchdowns

Projecting those type of numbers is difficult, which I understand, but it isn’t impossible. The Cardinals still like to pass the ball. In fact, they had the third-most pass attempts in the NFL last year with 646. All I am saying is if Brown had a year like Antonio Brown and Marvin Harrison did in their fourth year don’t be mad at me because I at least warned you.

Forgiveness is difficult, especially in fantasy football. It is important, though, to look at the entire picture to figure out why a player had a down season and why it is worth giving them another chance. As I said before, everything will be A-OK if you draft the three wide receivers above.


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Mitchell Renz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mitchell, check out hisย archiveย and follow himย @mitchellrenz365.

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