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6 Burning Questions (Fantasy Baseball)

6 Burning Questions (Fantasy Baseball)

The All-Star break is almost upon us, but before we take a brief hiatus from collecting fantasy stats let’s dive into another round of Burning Questions. I’ll be taking an in-depth look at starting pitchers in my weekly Two-Start Pitcher Rankings columns after the break, so for today let’s focus on a grab bag of hitter-focused quandaries.

As always, if you’ve got burning questions that aren’t answered here, you can ask me on Twitter.

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Where does Freddie Freeman rank among third basemen?
Freeman made an earlier-than-expected return from a fractured wrist on Tuesday, which is particularly surprising when you consider he only got the chance to field one ground ball at third base in two minor league rehab games. Whether Freeman is ready to handle the hot corner defensively remains to be seen, but he should gain eligibility there soon in most leagues and we know the guy can hit.

So where does Freeman rank among fantasy third basemen for the rest of 2017? Well, on a per-game basis, he’s been the single-most potent fantasy bat at any position in standard roto leagues this year, according to Baseball Monster (yes, even better than Aaron Judge). Last year, Freeman’s full season fantasy value matched Manny Machado, and ranked behind only Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Josh Donaldson at third base. Some other exciting third basemen have taken a big step forward this year (Jose Ramirez, Travis Shaw, Jake Lamb, Justin Turner, Anthony Rendon, Miguel Sano, and Mike Moustakas, to name a few), so the position is quite loaded at the moment. Still, given what Freeman has shown he deserves to be thought of as top-five at the position, and considering that Arenado, Bryant, Donaldson, and Machado haven’t matched last season’s production, Freeman probably has as good a claim to the number one spot as anybody does at the moment.  

Does it matter that Carlos Correa and George Springer stopped stealing bases?
Correa and Springer are both having fantastic fantasy seasons in Houston. Coming into Wednesday’s games, Correa was the number one shortstop in standard 5×5 roto leagues, while Springer ranked fourth among outfielders. But these two dynamic Astros have not been cleared for takeoff on the base paths. They’ve combined for zero SBs in 615 at-bats this season after combining for 22 SBs in 1,221 at-bats last year and 30 SBs in 775 at-bats in 2015.

The lack of stolen bases won’t matter, even in roto leagues, if Correa and Springer keep hitting for a plus batting average with lots of power and run production, as their current positional rankings show. Both hitters will continue to benefit from a loaded Astros lineup, but they are due for a bit of batting average regression, and Springer is also unlikely to continue on his current (nearly) 50 HR pace. Correa plays the much shallower position and his power output appears largely sustainable, so the lack of steals stands to affect Springer a little more. Whereas Correa can continue to be the top fantasy shortstop without running, Springer may perform like a top 10-15 outfielder rather than a top-five option going forward.

Is Josh Reddick on his way to a career year?
Sticking in Houston, Reddick is another Astro who is having a big year. At .313-53-9-37-7 through 249 at-bats, he’s currently on track to breeze past his previous career highs in batting average (.281 last year) and stolen bases (11 in 2012) and put up his best power and run production since he delivered 32 home runs and 85 RBIs for the A’s in 2012.

Reddick has gradually transformed into one of the better contact hitters in baseball over the last several years, and his 12.3 percent strikeout rate this season currently ranks 13th-best in baseball. At the same time, his 25.7 percent line drive rate is seventh-best in baseball. His 31.8 percent hard hit rate is also a career high, although nothing special by Major League standards.

Reddick is hitting near the top of an explosive lineup, and he’s showing a willingness to steal bases and an ability to make frequent contact. He’s looking capable of across-the-board production, which makes him worth owning in 12-team leagues even if he doesn’t reach 20 HRs.

Is Miguel Cabrera still an elite hitter?
Cabrera is currently hitting just .263 this season, which means he’s got his work cut out for him if he’s going to finish above .290 for the 14th consecutive year. Thankfully, his peripherals suggest his average should be on the rise soon. His .306 BABIP is 40 points below his career average, even though his 47.9 percent hard contact rate and 27.8 percent line drive rate are both career highs. That said, his 21.1 percent strikeout rate is the highest he’s had since his first full season in 2004, so his owners shouldn’t expect him to suddenly revert back to a .330 hitter.

Cabrera has also hit just 11 HRs so far, making a repeat of last season’s 38 HRs highly unlikely. His power also appeared to be on the decline in 2014-2015, so you probably can’t rely on Cabrera for more than 20-25 HRs at this point. Still, a .300-25-90 hitter has plenty of value in fantasy leagues, and those numbers represent an achievable pace for Cabrera to produce at for the rest of the year.

Can Starling Marte be a second half difference-maker?
In standard roto leagues or any other format that values stolen bases, the answer to this question has to be yes. Marte, who is eligible to return from a PED suspension on July 18, is one of only four players who stole over 100 bases from 2014-2016, and he and Jose Altuve are the only two who did so while also providing both a strong batting average and decent power. That’s why Marte has been a top-50 hitter in 5×5 roto leagues for three years running.

And for those who worry that Marte’s production will fall off without the support of PEDs, history suggests otherwise. The list of names who have been suspended for using PEDs includes many recent examples of players who have come back as good or better than they were before their suspension, including Dee Gordon, Ervin Santana, Aroydys Vizcaino, Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Freddy Galvis, Melky Cabrera, and Yasmani Grandal. It’s much tougher to find examples of players whose careers were derailed by PED suspensions. Everth Cabrera might be one example, but most of the other players were either already over the hill (Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada) or were never good to begin with.

Marte is a very good player in the prime of his career, and he should make an instant impact for fantasy owners when he returns.

Who’s the best fantasy outfielder in St. Louis?
I explained last week in this space why I am lukewarm on Randal Grichuk, so he can safely be ruled out as the Cardinals’ best fantasy outfielder. The debate comes down to Stephen Piscotty or Tommy Pham.

Piscotty was a popular breakout pick coming into this season, but he has disappointed fantasy owners with a .245 average, six home runs, and three steals through his first 208 at-bats. Piscotty’s 20 percent strikeout rate isn’t awful and his .290 BABIP is a little lower than we’ve come to expect from him, so his batting average should creep up a bit — but the .305 average he put up during his first taste of the Big Leagues looks like a mirage. He’s hitting more fly balls this year, but his hard contact rate is below average. He profiles as a guy who can hit about .270 with 20 HRs and a handful of steals.

Pham, meanwhile, is off to a great start, with a .289 average, 10 home runs, and nine stolen bases in just 187 at-bats. His 25.7 percent strikeout rate and .358 BABIP both indicate that his batting average should drop, but his high line drive and ground ball rates suggest he can still hit for a decent average. The fact he rarely hits the ball in the air does mean that his home run pace should slow, though (his 32.3 percent HR/FB rate is unsustainable).

There’s not a lot separating these two, but Pham has shown an aggressiveness on the base paths that Piscotty has not, and Pham is also the much hotter hitter of late, so he’s the one I would be owning and deploying in fantasy leagues at the moment.


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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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