We’re at the All-Star break, so now is as good of a time as any to take a look back on the first half of the season. Instead of looking at recent trends as I generally do, this week’s piece will focus on players who have over and underperformed for the first half as a whole.
Import your team to My Playbook for instant Waiver Wire advice 
Buy Lows
Cabrera’s .339 wOBA is by no means a low number, although, for one of the greatest hitters of our time, it may as well be. The last time he posted a number that low was his rookie season where he had a .338 wOBA over 87 games. Since then (13 seasons), his lowest mark was .374 the following year, and his career wOBA is .403.
It should surprise no one, then, that Cabrera’s been underperforming this year. His xwOBA of .416 demonstrates this, and that number is certainly something that he’s not only capable of but has reached so many times before. He’s being held back by a BABIP of just .307, which many players would love to have but is 39 points below his career average.
There’s no reason for Cabrera’s batted ball luck to have changed since he’s still hitting the ball hard. In fact, his soft contact rate of 6.7 percent is lowest among qualified hitters, and his hard contact rate of 49.5 percent is second-highest.
There must be something in the water in Detroit (hold the Flint jokes, please), as Castellanos is the only qualified hitter with a higher hard contact rate than Cabrera but has been one of the unluckiest hitters in the game. Castellanos has always been a hard hitter, but he’s taken it to a new level this season.
Unfortunately for him, he hasn’t gotten the results that generally come with hitting the ball hard. His wOBA sits at just .318, right around his career average, despite his increased hard-hit and line drive rates. StatCast metrics affirm that he’s been unlucky, as his xwOBA is a healthy .363.
It’s difficult to completely diagnose Castellanos’ problems, as his BABIP isn’t too unsightly at .310, he’s walking more than he has in the past, and his HR/FB rate isn’t extraordinarily low. But even if there’s no single factor that can be pointed to, the fact remains that Castellanos is hitting the ball hard and in good locations. The results will come in time.
Matt Carpenter (1B/2B/3B – STL)
Carpenter’s struggles this season have a much simpler explanation that can be pointed to. His BABIP sits at just .256, which would be significantly lower than anything else he’s posted over a full season and nearly 70 points below his career rate.
This also appears luck-driven, as he, like Cabrera and Castellanos, is hitting the ball harder than he previously has in his career. Some of it is certainly due to his exchange of ground balls for fly balls, but that reduction in average is more than made up for by his power output, as he’s already hit 14 home runs despite posting a three-year low in HR/FB rate.
Carpenter’s xwOBA of .406 is 50 points higher than his actual wOBA, which makes sense given his lack of luck. The fact that it remains so high even with his struggles can be attributed to his walk rate, which is the highest among qualified hitters at 17.5 percent. That should also help him avoid slumps, especially in leagues that reward OBP.
Archer opened the season near the top 10 of pitchers. Despite his 3.95 ERA, he still remains in that tier for me. The ERA isn’t the prettiest to look at, but Archer has an FIP of 3.16 and an xFIP of 3.44, so there’s clearly room for positive regression.
While he’s certainly allowed more runs than expected, one of my favorite qualities about him means he’ll continue to get strikeouts whether or not he allows runs. He’s allowed contact on just 71.9 percent of swings, ninth-lowest among qualified pitchers. His swinging strike rate of 13.2 percent is 11th in MLB, and he gets batters to chase on 31.7 percent of pitches outside of the zone, 17th best.
All of that should add up to elite strikeout numbers, and Archer hasn’t disappointed. His current strikeout rate of 28.5 percent ranks seventh behind some of the biggest names in baseball. I wouldn’t be surprised if that rate stays where it is or even increases as the season goes on, as Archer is one of the best in baseball at missing bats.
Sell Highs
Owners needing steals—this author included—probably picked up Smith after his call-up in early June, especially after he stole four bases in his first two games back. Since then, though, he hasn’t delivered in what should be his best category. Since that date, he has just four stolen bases (and four caught stealings) in 24 games. Twenty-four players have more steals over that span, many of whom are freely available on waivers or free agency.
More than that, though, is that Smith has overperformed in the other areas of his game. He’s the owner of a .363 wOBA, although StatCast expects it to be .253. This is largely due to his high BABIP of .429 despite hitting ground balls more than 50 percent of the time. His expected batting average according to StatCast is just .203, compared to the .333 that it actually is.
The short version is that Smith isn’t stealing bases when he has the chance, and his number of chances is likely to decrease as his play regresses to his true talent level.
Marwin Gonzalez (1B/2B/3B/SS/OF – HOU)
It’s truly a shame that I used my sex joke on Howie Kendrick three weeks ago, since Marwin Gonzalez is the player that has more positions than anyone else I can imagine. So as to not be repetitive, I won’t use it again, but just picture a funny joke about someone being open to a lot of positions and pretend I said it.
Like Smith, StatCast really doesn’t like Gonzalez. His xwOBA is .312 compared to his actual .405, and his expected batting average is .226 compared to his actual .308. I’m sure I sound like a broken record at this point, but this is largely due in part to his BABIP, which at .338 is the highest of his career. It’s tough to sustain a number that high when hitting over 45 percent groundballs and just 15 percent line drives, and I don’t believe Gonzalez will be an exception by the time the season has come to an end.
The other thing to note is that his power numbers won’t continue at this pace. Gonzalez has already set a career high in home runs, and his slugging and ISO would be the highest of his career as well. However, it’s hard to believe that the home runs will continue based on his inflated 24.2 percent HR/FB rate, which is nearly double his career rate despite his fly balls not flying any further.
| Season | Average Fly Ball Distance (ft) | HR/FB Rate (%) |
| 2015 | 314 | 13.8 |
| 2016 | 323 | 11.6 |
| 2017 | 323 | 24.2 |
There likely isn’t much I can say about Santana that you haven’t heard before. He’s been one of the luckiest pitchers this year in several key categories, including the ones I cite most often. He has just a .217 BABIP, which has led to him allowing a batting average against of just .204. That being said, he has been able to limit the quality contact against him, as StatCats expects him to have just a .220 batting average against.
If that were the only problem, I might say Santana isn’t as much of a sell-high as he is. However, he’s also currently maintaining a sky-high strand rate of 83.6 percent which is certainly due for regression, especially considering he’s only striking out 18.8 percent of batters. What’s more, his walk rate is the highest it’s been since 2007, so he’s certainly not doing himself any favors.
All of that adds up to an FIP of 4.68, significantly higher than his ERA of 2.99. His xFIP is even higher at 4.79, so if you can get him off your hands while his value is still high, definitely do so.
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
