Well, we’ve reached the All-Star break, otherwise known as the longest four days of the year (and not just because the sun sets later). No meaningful games to follow, no stats to accrue. These are tough times for the fantasy community.
Luckily, we’re here to help with an All-Star break edition of Burning Questions! So let’s all take a deep breath and contemplate what we learned in the season’s first half and what we can expect to see the rest of the way. And meanwhile, if you’ve got any questions about your team, just ask me on Twitter.
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Who was the fantasy MVP in the first half?
To find the fantasy MVP to date, look no further than the home run derby champ. Aaron Judge has been a complete monster, and he is showing no signs of slowing down.
Drafted 282nd overall in fantasy leagues, Judge currently ranks as the No. 1 fantasy hitter, trailing only top-15 picks Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer in total fantasy value in 5×5 roto leagues. He’s also been a model of consistency, sporting an OPS of 1.084 or higher in every month so far. His batting average should dip in the second half (for reasons I explained here), but make no mistake, Judge is a fantasy beast and as close to a league winner as you’ll find in a fantasy sport that requires a team effort to finish atop the standings.
Honorable mentions: Alex Wood (ADP: 346), Ryan Zimmerman (ADP: 362), Travis Shaw (ADP: 328), Jason Vargas (ADP: outside the top 400)
Who was the fantasy LVP (Least Valuable Player) in the first half?
There are many strong (weak?) contenders for this award, as countless aggrieved fantasy owners are undoubtedly aware. But for this exercise, I’m going to exclude injured stars (even those like MadBum who didn’t get hurt playing baseball) and prioritize starting pitchers, who can do more damage to a fantasy team than struggling hitters.
With those ground rules established, the fantasy LVP of the first half is…Justin Verlander. Last year, Verlander was the seventh-most valuable pitcher in 5×5 roto leagues. This year, he’s 565th among pitchers. Given the immense damage he’s done to your WHIP and ERA, fantasy managers would have been better off drafting Justin Bieber (or Kate Upton) and just taking zeroes in every category from that roster spot.
Verlander got dropped in my long-running roto keeper league and I snatched him up, so I haven’t completely given up hope that he can return to form. His velocity is actually up this year and the upside is real, especially if he gets dealt to the NL. But if you’ve been stubbornly sticking with him in your starting lineup, you’re probably in a deep hole right now.
Dishonorable mentions: Jon Lester, Johnny Cueto, Masahiro Tanaka, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera
Who is the best buy-low for the second half?
The three hitters that I listed as LVP runners-up (Machado, Donaldson, and Cabrera) are all enticing buy-low options, particularly Machado, who has the eighth-lowest BABIP in baseball and isn’t at risk of age-related decline like Donaldson or Cabrera.
But if Machado is too high-end to get at a discount, Maikel Franco makes for an appealing buy-low alternative at third base. Franco has quickly established himself as a reliable 25 HR bat with upside for more, and his 13 first half HRs haven’t disappointed fantasy owners. His .217 batting average, however, has been a major drag on his fantasy value — but it’s due to rise.
Franco’s batted ball profile is right in line with his career averages, but only Kyle Schwarber has a lower BABIP. The difference between the two is that Franco is only striking out 13.5 percent of the time — less than half as often as Schwarber. In fact, only eight players besides Franco have 13 or more HRs and a strikeout rate of 13.5 percent or less: Mookie Betts, Daniel Murphy, Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Ramirez, Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve, and Francisco Lindor. That’s good company to be in.
Who is the best sell-high for the second half?
Marcell Ozuna is a good player putting up big numbers and just entering his prime — but that’s also what makes him a plausible sell-high candidate. Ozuna’s .316 batting average and 23 first half home runs both jump off the page, but neither looks sustainable. Ozuna’s 22.8 percent strikeout rate isn’t awful, but his .362 BABIP is among the highest in baseball and nearly 40 points above his career mark. And while he’s making a good amount of hard contact, Ozuna isn’t hitting many fly balls, which means his home run pace is sure to slow once his extremely high 27.4 percent HR/FB ratio comes back to earth.
It’s also worth fielding offers for Mark Reynolds, whose BABIP and HR/FB ratio are both high even by Coors Field standards. Domingo Santana and Steven Souza fall in the same boat, although at least they chip in some steals here and there.
Which widely available players could have a big second half impact?
Maikel Franco is only 45 percent owned in Yahoo leagues, which feels awfully low for a player with his upside.
Forward-thinking managers should also try to stash Jeurys Familia (39 percent owned in Yahoo leagues), even if you’re out of available DL spots. Familia was a top-10 closer in standard roto leagues in 2015 and 2016, and could reportedly return by August 1. He’ll eventually regain the closer role from Addison Reed, even if Reed isn’t shipped out ahead of the trade deadline.
Tommy Kahnle is another closer-in-waiting who should be owned in much more than 13 percent of Yahoo leagues. His absurd ratios and top-three strikeout rate already give him plenty of value in innings-capped leagues. And with Nate Jones nowhere near returning and David Robertson one of the most likely trade candidates out there, Kahnle could find himself in the ninth inning very soon, further enhancing his already-considerable fantasy value.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
