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Buy Trey Mancini in the Second Half

Buy Trey Mancini in the Second Half

The Baltimore Orioles have been quite the disappointment when it comes to fantasy production in 2017. First round pick Manny Machado has been outperformed in standard five-category leagues by the likes of fellow shortstop-eligible players Marwin Gonzalez and Orlando Arcia. Even Freddy bleeping Galvis is stunningly close to matching Machado’s production — or lack thereof — this season.

OF Mark Trumbo followed up his 13-home run season of 2015 with a startling 47-home run season in 2016…and now, he has 12 home runs at the All-Star break this season. That’s some regression. 1B Chris Davis and RP Zach Britton have both been hurt although Brad Brach has filled in at closer quite admirably.

OF Adam Jones has continued being a very overrated fantasy asset at this point in his career. And let’s not even touch the starting pitching.

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However, there have been two bright spots for the Orioles this season. One of those is first-time All-Star Jonathan Schoop who has been one of the better second basemen this season and has significantly outperformed his draft position.

The other guy is 1B/OF Trey Mancini, a 25-year-old rookie who had just 15 plate appearances in the majors prior to this season. Any Mancini owner this season likely scooped him up off waivers and has been rewarded handsomely as Mancini is batting .305 with 14 home runs and 43 RBIs in 2017.

Looking at his more advanced stats, it’s rather obvious that Mancini has been incredibly fortunate. Mancini has a sky-high BABIP of .375 and an absurd HR/FB rate of 24.6%. Also concerning is that Mancini is striking out 27.5% of the time and has a ground ball rate of 51.2% on batted balls to go along with a line drive rate of only 15.3%.

None of these are particularly good indicators of sustained success. All of these factors would indicate that selling on Mancini high may be a wise move.

The great thing about baseball though is that luck has so much to do with results and it’s impossible to predict when good or bad luck will come to an end. Somebody trying to sell high on Mancini is likely trying to do too much. I’m expecting Mancini to continue tearing it up this season before significantly underperforming his draft spot next season.

Many times these strong rookie showings continue throughout the season and come crashing down in the following season. Let’s take a look at Twins slugger Miguel Sano.

While a very different player than Mancini, Sano mashed in his rookie season in 2015 with 18 home runs, 52 RBIs, and a .269 average. He did this with an extremely high strikeout rate above 35%, a BABIP of .396, and an HR/FB rate of 26.5%. The following year, Sano was a massive disappointment as he significantly underperformed his draft spot with a batting average below .240, 25 home runs, and 66 RBIs.

Not much changed from 2015 to 2016 except Sano’s BABIP dropped about 70 points, his HR/FB rate dropped to near 20% and his walk rate dropped from 16% to 10.5%. This year, Sano is back to mashing and providing great value for those who took a chance on him regaining his rookie form.

A more similar player to Mancini with a bit more speed is Wil Myers. In 2013, the top prospect burst onto the scene for the Rays hitting .293 with 13 home runs and 53 RBIs in 373 plate appearances. Like Mancini, he was aided by a very high BABIP and an above average HR/FB rate.

Myers did this despite a similarly high groundball rate and strikeout rate to Mancini and a middling line drive rate around 20%. He was promptly overdrafted the following year and was a complete disaster. The BABIP sunk as did the HR/FB rate and line drive rate.

The strikeout rate, as well as the ground ball rate, remained consistent which resulted in a disastrous .222 average with six homers and 35 RBIs in 361 plate appearances. Myers, of course, was traded to the Padres shortly after and has trended more toward that rookie form ever since.

These are just a couple of examples and there will be players that deviate from this trend of course. However, Sano and Myers were much more highly touted prospects than Mancini and still fell victim to the “sophomore slump.”

The “sophomore slump” is a thing for a reason. In baseball, it is generally a regression of rookies who had extremely good luck in their first season to extremely bad luck in their second season.

The reason why I point out Mancini in particular as a player to buy is because there are indications that you should “sell high” on Mancini and therefore owners in your league may be willing to do so. Besides the advanced stats that indicate eventual regression, Chris Davis will be returning at some point in the second half which will move Mancini down a spot in the batting order.

Mancini really took off this season when Davis went down with the dreaded oblique injury which is likely just more coincidence than anything else. If anything, you would expect Davis in the order to lead to more runs for the Orioles which in turn would increase Mancini’s overall appeal.

Mancini has played well enough this season to secure his role as either the Orioles’ everyday first baseman or DH when Davis returns. There will be no concerns with playing time as there were early in the season so if there’s an owner in your league using Mancini’s good luck thus far as a reason to “sell high” on him this year then I would be buying. Just make sure you buy on Mancini before it’s too late.

 

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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.

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