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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (7/7)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (7/7)

There are a whopping five five-figure starting pitchers on tonight’s slate, but the pitching talent doesn’t stop at the top. There are middle-tier arms with ample upside and a couple of bargain arms who stand out as intriguing plays, too. Max Scherzer has pitched incredibly well this year and has a 0.83 ERA over the last 30 days. Even at his steep $13,200 salary, he’s basically a must in cash games. In GPPs, though, all bets are off with a ton of high-upside alternatives and pricey bats who warrant attention, too. The roster below fades the big-ticket arms — Mad Max included — and features a pair of starting pitchers whose combined salaries are a mere $1,800 more than Scherzer’s alone. This pairing leaves an average salary of $4,375 to spend on hitters, a luxury those spending up on the top arms won’t be treated to. The honorable mentions at pitcher also won’t feature the big-ticket arms since you can’t reasonably be expected to swap them in for either of the two selected arms without drastically altering the makeup of the hitters on the team. The offense is highlighted by a 3-man stack and two different pairings of teammates.

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Pitcher

James Paxton (SEA): $8,500 vs. Athletics

Paxton’s a surprisingly easy selection as my SP1. He opened the year like a man on fire, hit the disabled list, made a solid start after his activation before scuffling for a few turns. Over his last three starts, though, he’s turned the corner. In his last three starts, he has a 3.38 ERA (3.53 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, and 3.85 SIERA), 1.18 WHIP, 9.5% BB%, 27.0% K%, and 13.3% SwStr%, according to FanGraphs. The sample is tiny, but he’s also doing an exquisite job of popping batters up with a ridiculous 30.8% IFFB%. He’s not going to continue to pop hitters up at anything close to that clip, but it’s an intriguing potential added wrinkle to his already juicy statistical profile. The Mariners are -153 favorites in a home game with an over/under total of 8.5 runs (one of the lower ones on the slate), per Pinnacle. Paxton’s matchup is outstanding with the Athletics ranking 27th in wRC+ (82) against southpaws and tied for 21st in wRC+ (86) on the road. They’re also highly susceptible to punching out with a 25.7% K% against lefties and a 26.2% K% on the road. I don’t expect the lefty to be low owned, but anything under 25% ownership is a gift for a player of his caliber with the type of upside he possesses at a modest salary.

Jordan Montgomery (NYY): $6,500 vs. Brewers

Speaking of ownership, Montgomery is going to garner a ton of it. He’s grossly under priced, and even with his contest featuring an over/under total of 10.5 runs, he’s going to be a super chalky SP2. The over/under is far from evenly split on what team’s projected to do the scoring as the Yankees are -199 favorites. The left-handed rookie has pitched very well overall since joining New York’s rotation, but he’s really settled into a groove over the last 30 days. In that time, he has a 3.52 ERA (4.75 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, and 3.66 SIERA), 1.08 WHIP, 4.8% BB%, 24.2% K%, and robust 15.4% K%. His opponent, the Brewers, rank just 14th in wRC+ (94) against lefties with the fourth-highest K% (26.0%) against them. Montgomery’s swing-and-miss stuff should help him pile up strikeouts against Milwaukee tonight, elevating both his floor and — more importantly for GPPs — ceiling.

Honorable Mentions

Catcher

Gary Sanchez (NYY): $4,700 vs. Brewers

By spending down at pitcher, we can use Sanchez at catcher. No one else was up for consideration for this spot. The Yankees are tied for the highest wRC+ (122) at home this year, and Sanchez sits in the middle of the action batting third. The Bronx Bombers, as noted above in Montgomery’s write up, are -199 favorites in a game with an over/under total of 10.5 runs. That’s what happens when the offense tied for best in the Bigs at home draws a below-average starter. Junior Guerra has a 4.93 ERA that’s actually lucky per his 7.10 FIP, 6.02 xFIP, and 5.72 SIERA. Guerra had a surprising breakout last year, but he’s turned into a pumpkin this season. He’s coughed up a .381 OBP, .553 SLG, and .394 wOBA to righties this year. Sanchez is a terror against righties with a .394 OBP, .295 ISO, and 169 wRC+ against them. He’s actually been slightly better on the road against righties than at home, but no one should be turning their nose up to his .383 OBP, .293 ISO, and 164 wRC+ against righties at Yankee Stadium.

First Base

Trey Mancini (BAL): $3,700 @ Twins

Felix Jorge made his debut in The Show last Saturday, and while he didn’t get torched, he did yield three earned runs on seven hits and a walk with just two strikeouts. Couple his mediocre debut with his pedestrian minor-league numbers, and he’s an easy target with a hitter like Mancini. The rookie slugger has hammered same-handed foes ripping off a .380 OBP, .253 ISO, and 151 wRC+ against righties since reaching the Majors last season. Jorge lacks the goods to exploit Mancini’s 26.8% K% against righties, making his power especially tantalizing in this matchup.

Honorable Mentions

Second Base

Jason Kipnis (CLE): $3,600 vs. Tigers

After missing Wednesday’s contest with a stiff neck, Kipnis returned to his spot atop Cleveland’s lineup last night. He and the Indians are -195 favorites at home in a game with an over/under total of nine runs. Sign me up for a leadoff hitter at Kipnis’ minimal salary commitment with a favorable scoring outlook. Kipnis isn’t just and “oddsmaker’s special” utilizing the over/under to justify his selection on this team, he’s also an above-average hitter against righties with a .357 OBP, .162 ISO, and 118 wRC+ against them since 2014. The matchup is good for him as well with Jordan Zimmermann ceding a .349 OBP, .526 SLG, and .367 wOBA to left-handed batters this year.

Honorable Mentions

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL): $5,200 vs. White Sox

Arenado is hooked with another teammate below, but the lack of honorable mentions at the hot corner isn’t the product of hooking teammates. There are a few motivating factors for touting Arenado and Arenado alone at third base. The first is his hefty salary of $5,200. Gamers who use Scherzer will have a hell of a time using Arenado with any kind of Yankees stack (spoiler alert, the Yankees are this team’s 3-man stack). I believe the combination of Arenado and the Yankees stack will be fairly unique. As for Arenado, he’s in a dreamy matchup with drool-inducing numbers. Derek Holland has been hammered by right-handed batters who’ve ripped off a .364 OBP, .538 SLG, and .380 wOBA against him this season. Since 2014, Arenado owns a .415 OBP, .367 ISO, and 159 wRC+ against lefties at Coors Field.

Shortstop

Trevor Story (COL): $3,900 vs. White Sox

Story offers this team another right-handed look at Holland. He’s enduring a sophomore slump, but he’s having no problems with lefties. In his 89 plate appearances against southpaws at Coors Field, Story has tallied a .364 OBP, .382 ISO, and 126 wRC+ with eight homers.

Honorable Mentions

Outfield

Brett Gardner (NYY): $4,300 vs. Brewers

Gardner’s the catalyst for the Yankees’ lineup as its leadoff hitter, and he’s long been at his best at home. In 774 plate appearances against righties at home since 2014, Gardy owns a .368 OBP, .189 ISO, and 132 wRC+. He also possesses stolen base potential with 10 in 11 attempts this year.

Aaron Judge (NYY): $5,600 vs. Brewers

Judge has earned his hefty salary by abusing everything pitchers have thrown his way. The righty’s power is prodigious, and in his young career, he’s creamed righties with a .394 OBP, .295 ISO, and 169 wRC+ against them. He’s really treated his home fans to a show with a .435 OBP, .435 ISO, and 215 wRC+ in 177 plate appearances against righties at Yankee Stadium since debuting last year.

Michael Brantley (CLE): $3,700 vs. TigersBrantley rounds our roster out. I nearly opted to spin down at shortstop in order to spend up to the only honorable mention outfielder below, Giancarlo Stanton, but the combo of Story/Brantley edged out a lesser SS with Stanton. Brantley has put a nearly entirely lost 2016 season behind him, and he has a .380 OBP, .156 ISO, and 126 wRC+ against righties. The left-handed hitting outfielder has been even more fearsome than that at home against righties this year with a .408 OBP, .161 ISO, and 141 wRC+. If you prefer a bigger sample size, he has a .419 OBP, .201 ISO, and 168 wRC+ against righties in Cleveland since 2014.

Honorable Mention

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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