DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Monday (7/17)
12 games greet us as we head into the back half of July, and it’s shaping up to be a solid one for fantasy purposes. There is a series kicking off in Denver, so identifying some value will be crucial if you want to get some exposure to not only Coors Field, but some other positive scoring environments that are available. Let’s take a look at a lineup for DraftKings.
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS): $8,200 vs. TOR
Rodriguez returns from the disabled list to face a Toronto squad who ranks in the middle of the pack against left-handed pitching. The Blue Jays strike out right around league average against lefties, so I don’t mind targeting Rodriguez in tournaments. Walks are a bit of a concern for Rodriguez (3/1 BB/9), but he does have strikeout upside (9.59 K/9), and he flashed that upside in his last rehab start. The Blue Jays do show patience at the plate in terms of walks, but the power continues to lack, so I don’t mind rolling the dice with Rodriguez in tournaments.
Josh Tomlin (CLE): $8,000 @ SF
Out west we go, as Cleveland visits San Francisco in the final game of the evening. While this isn’t an appealing matchup a strikeout perspective, the Giants’ lack of power coupled with an overall ineptness against right-handed pitching makes Tomlin a viable value. Outside of a lack of strikeout upside (6.77 K/9), the other knock on Tomlin is being susceptible to power, which should be neutralized between the opponent and the park. If you’re looking to save a pitcher in tournaments in an effort to spend up on hitters, Tomlin is a decent option despite having capped upside.
- Lance McCullers (HOU): $11,500 vs. SEA
- Jon Lester (CHC): $9,800 @ ATL (GPP)
- Adam Wainwright (STL): $9,100 @ NYM (GPP)
- Julio Teheran (ATL): $8,400 vs. CHC (risky GPP; hedge play; only if entering multiple lineups)
Evan Gattis (HOU) : $4,200 vs. SEA
With a lefty on the hill for Seattle, I’d look for Gattis to find his way into the lineup tonight against Ariel Miranda. While Miranda has allowed a .304 wOBA to right-handed hitters, it’s the power we’re targeting here, which just happens to be Gattis’ strong suit. Miranda has allowed 18 home runs to right-handed hitters in 85 IP this season, which simply isn’t good. The Astros have an implied run total in the mid-5s, and with Gattis having a solid history against left-handed pitching (.219 ISO since 2015), he makes for a strong option tonight.
- Gary Sanchez (NYY): $4,600 @ MIN
- Willson Contreras (CHC): $4,000 @ ATL (GPP)
- Salvador Perez (KC): $3,800 vs. DET
Miguel Cabrera (DET) : $3,500 @ KC
Cabrera is coming off of a strong weekend, has hit well over the last 10 games, and yet is incredibly cheap for some reason. Jason Vargas has been tough on right-handed batters this season (.274 wOBA), but it doesn’t all mesh when you dig a little bit. Vargas sports an average 7.04 K/9 against right-handed hitters, yet has an incredibly high 89.1% strand rate, which doesn’t line up for someone who isn’t aiding his own cause with a bunch of strikeouts. Toss in a .264 BABIP and an xFIP that’s well over two runs higher than his actual ERA, and he could just be the benefactor of some luck to this point. Take the deep discount on Cabrera and run while you can.
- Anthony Rizzo (CHC): $4,800 @ ATL
- Mark Reynolds (COL): $4,700 vs. SD (GPP)
- Edwin Encarnacion (CLE): $4,400 @ SF (GPP)
- Chris Davis (BAL): $3,500 vs. TEX (GPP)
Brandon Phillipas (ATL) : $3,600 vs. CHC
Phillips is making the decision of whether or not to trade him very difficult for his hometown team, and he sticks out as a decent value tonight. Jon Lester has not fared well against right-handed hitters this season, as he’s allowed a .353 wOBA and 14 home runs in 80.2 IP. This is an important series for both squads, and the start of a crucial stretch for the Braves, so I look for their wily veteran leader to continue his recent stretch of strong play.
- Jose Altuve (HOU): $5,300 vs. SEA
- Jose Ramirez (CLE): $4,600 @ SF (GPP)
- Jonathan Villar (MIL): $4,100 @ PIT (GPP)
- Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,900 @ BAL (GPP)
Josh Harrison (PIT) (PIT): $3,900 vs. MIL
Harrison is in a funk right now, but I don’t expect it to be too long before he gets rolling again. Brent Suter is a soft tossing lefty who isn’t anything to be scared of, and with third base devoid of any clear value, Harrison sticks out as a decent play.
- Nolan Arenado (COL): $5,200 vs. SD
- Kris Byrant (CHC): $5,200 @ ATL (GPP)
- Freddie Freeman (ATL): $4,800 vs. CHC (GPP)
- Mike Moustakas (KC): $4,400 vs. DET
- Manny Machado (BAL): $4,300 vs. TEX (GPP)
Carlos Correa (HOU): $5,300 vs. SEA
I picked on Ariel Miranda earlier, while highlighting his issues with right-handed power, so it makes sense to get exposure to him where you can. Correa and the Astros continue to roll, and I expect more of the same tonight at home. Correa sports a .216 ISO and a .369 wOBA against lefties over the past couple of seasons, and it’s tough not to love his upside as a result.
- Francisco Lindor (CLE): $4,300 @ SF (GPP)
- Xander Bogaerts (BOS): $4,100 vs. TOR (GPP)
- Trevor Story (COL): $3,700 vs. SD (GPP)
George Springer (HOU) : $5,300 vs. SEA
Springer has faced Ariel Miranda 11 times, and he’s hit a home run in four of those at-bats. I noted Miranda’s issues with right-handed power a couple of times already, so don’t be shy about picking on him. Springer continues to sizzle atop this potent offense, and he should continue to be an elite fantasy option tonight.
J.D. Martinez (DET): $4,100 @ KC
Martinez boasts a strong .287 ISO against lefties over the past couple of seasons, and I love his massive power upside tonight. I noted the disconnect between Jason Vargas’s surface numbers and the underlying peripheral statistics, so it makes sense to target him with a lefty masher like Martinez.
Matt Kemp (ATL) : $3,600 vs. CHC
Back to Atlanta we go, where Kemp will look to build upon a strong weekend performance against the Diamondbacks. Kemp logged four hits in 12 at-bats against Arizona, including a home runs yesterday and four runs batted in during that span. He will hold the platoon advantage over Jon Lester, who I noted earlier has really struggled with right-handed hitters this season. I wouldn’t risk it in cash games, but Kemp is a fine tournament play, or as part of an Atlanta stack.
- Charlie Blackmon (COL): $5,600 vs. SD
- Aaron Judge (NYY): $5,400 @ MIN (GPP)
- Andrew McCutchen (PIT): $4,500 vs. MIL (GPP)
- Jay Bruce (NYM): $4,500 vs. STL (GPP)
- Ian Desmond (COL): $4,500 vs. SD/Gerardo Parra (COL): $4,500 vs. SD
- Ian Happ (CHC): $4,400 @ ATL (GPP)/Kyle Schwarber (CHC): $4,100 @ ATL (GPP)
- Justin Upton (DET): $3,900 @ KC (GPP)
- Lorenzo Cain (KC): $3,700 vs. DET
- SP – Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS): $8,200 vs. TOR
- SP – Josh Tomlin (CLE): $8,000 @ SF
- C – Evan Gattis (HOU): $4,200 vs. SEA
- 1B – Miguel Cabrera (DET): $3,500 @ KC
- 2B – Brandon Phillips (ATL): $3,600 vs. CHC
- 3B – Josh Harrison (PIT): $3,900 vs. MIL
- SS – Carlos Correa (HOU): $5,300 vs. SEA
- OF – George Springer (HOU): $5,600 vs. SEA
- OF – J.D. Martinez (DET): $4,100 @ KC
- OF – Matt Kemp (ATL): $3,600 vs. CHC