The final day of July greets us with an eight game schedule and despite the limited player pool, this could be a solid night for fantasy production. Eight teams currently have implied run totals of at least five, while every game features an implied total of at least eight and a half runs as of this morning. Let’s take a look at a lineup for DraftKings.
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***Trade Deadline Reminder: The trade deadline is today, July 31st at 4:00 PM ET, so be sure to monitor any potential trade news that might impact any teams playing today***
Pitcher
Charlie Morton (HOU) : $10,600 vs. TB
Cole is coming off of his best outing of his rocky 2017 season, and he will look to carry that momentum into a favorable start at San Francisco. Short of two subpar performances, he’s pitched much better since mid-June and I like him to continue that success tonight. Not only does he get a phenomenal pitcher’s park, but he will face a woeful Giants’ team who continues to struggle offensively. The Giants are dead last this season against right-handed pitching in terms of wRC+, and they haven’t fared a whole lot better as of late either. Cole’s price is ripe for tournament play, and he has nice upside on the road this evening.
Mike Clevinger (CLE) : $7,800 @ BOS
Yikes. Pitching drops off quickly tonight, so you’re likely going to be forced into rostering a riskier player than you normally would. The Red Sox have struggled against right-handed pitching for most of the season, but we know how potent they can be, so there’s always a risk of them blowing up at any time. That being said, you need to target strikeout upside when rolling the dice on a pitcher who is in a tough matchup, and that’s exactly where Clevinger comes into play. Clevinger sports a 9.98 K/9 on the season, but control has been a problem (4.48 BB/9). You’re chasing strikeouts here, with the hopes that he can limit the damage enough to not eat away at those fantasy points.
Other Notables
- Luis Severino (NYY): $11,900 vs. DET
- Sonny Gray (OAK): $11,700 vs. SF (GPP; trade candidate)
Catcher
Brian McCann (HOU): $3,900 vs. TB
Alex Cobb has allowed a ton of hard contact to lefties this season (37.9%), which could get him into trouble tonight against a power hitter like McCann. McCann has not been hitting for a high average over the past couple of weeks (.200 AVG), but a low .167 BABIP is likely the culprit. The encouraging part is that his power is still there (.233 ISO), which makes him an appealing GPP option at home tonight.
Other Notables
- Gary Sanchez (NYY): $4,800 vs. DET
- Salvador Perez (KC): $3,900 @ BAL
- Welington Castillo (BAL): $3,600 vs. KC
- J.T. Realmuto (MIA): $3,600 vs. WAS (GPP)
First Base
Justin Smoak (TOR) : $4,900 @ CWS
Smoak continues to be a bright spot for an otherwise dull offense, as he’s hit .367 along with a 1.214 OPS over the last two weeks. The white hot first baseman will face James Shields, who has been blasted by lefties over a small sample (.440 wOBA, nine HRs allowed in 23 IP). Shields is a fly ball pitcher, which leaves him vulnerable to power, and that’s exactly what Smoak has provided plenty of all season long.
Other Notables
- Eric Hosmer (KC): $5,000 @ BAL
- Carlos Santana (CLE): $4,800 @ BOS (GPP)
- Jose Abreu (CWS): $4,200 vs. TOR (GPP)
Second Base
Whit Merrifield (KCR) : $4,200 @ BAL
Merrifield has been on quite a roll over the past couple of weeks, as he’s hit .346 while posting an OPS of .990 over his last 56 at-bats. He will be in position to continue his recent success, as he faces a wild pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez. We never know which Jimenez will show up, but oftentimes we get the bad version more than the good.
Other Notables
- Jose Altuve (HOU): $5,400 vs. TB
- Jonathan Schoop (BAL): $4,800 vs. KC (GPP)
Third Base
Alex Bregman (HOU) : $3,800 vs. TB
I picked on Alex Cobb a bit earlier, so with his struggles against lefties in mind, I don’t mind taking a flier on Bregman tonight. While he only has 30 plate appearances over the past couple of weeks, Bregman sure has been productive. He’s clubbed three home runs while collecting 13 hits over that span (.370 AVG), so despite likely hitting down in the batting order, I like the upside associated with Bregman tonight.
Other Notables
- Manny Machado (BAL): $4,500 vs. KC (GPP)
- Mike Moustakas (KC): $4,300 @ BAL
- Marwin Gonzalez (HOU): $4,300 vs. TB
- Josh Donaldson (TOR): $4,200 @ CWS (GPP)
Shortstop
Wilmer Difo (WAS) : $4,000 @ MIA
I’m really hoping DIfo slots into the second spot of the batting order, as he’d represent a decent value play if that winds up being the case. Difo has been productive for the Nationals in place of Trea Turner, and as part of a powerful offense, there should be plenty of chances to continue that production. Jose Urena is a mediocre pitcher at best, and I look for Washington to put up a big number offensively this evening as a result.
Other Notables
- Francisco Lindor (CLE): $4,800 @ BOS
- Didi Gregorius (NYY): $4,600 vs. DET (GPP)
- Marcus Semien (OAK): $4,300 vs. SF (GPP)
Outfielders
Jose Bautista (TOR) : $4,000 @ CWS
Bautista had his first day off since April yesterday, so here’s to hoping a break will wake the veteran slugger up tonight. Bautista hasn’t hit a home run since July 16th, but he stands to change that tonight against the homer machine that is James Shields. Not only are the contextual factors in Bautista’s favor, but he also has good history on his side as well. In 34 career at-bats against Shields, Bautista has collected 10 hits (.294 AVG) while hitting five home runs. There’s some risk involved due to concerns over Bautista’s power outage, but I think it’s one worth taking tonight.
Brandon Moss (KCR): $3,600 @ BAL
Moss has actually been productive over the past two weeks, which is a welcome sight given his putrid overall numbers. There’s not much to be afraid of when facing Ubaldo Jimenez most of the time, but you do have to worry about Moss’ strikeout rate, even against someone like Jimenez. All told, I think the bad Ubaldo shows up, and for this reason, I don’t mind stacking up a few Kansas City bats as a result.
Alex Gordon (KCR) : $3,200 @ BAL
Gordon hasn’t hit a home run since July 3rd, which can be a bit of an issue when utilizing him in tournaments. However, he has been somewhat productive in other categories over his last 10 games, as he’s collected 10 hits, two of which were doubles, with another one being a triple. He’s also added three stolen bases, which helps to ease the lack of home runs. All told, I don’t mind using him as part of a stack against Ubaldo Jimenez, who I have noted a few times that I’m willing to stack against him tonight.
Other Notables
- Bryce Harper (WAS): $5,600 @ MIA
- Giancarlo Stanton (MIA): $5,000 vs. WAS (GPP)
- Michael Brantley (CLE): $4,900 @ BOS (GPP)
- Josh Reddick (HOU): $4,800 vs. TB (GPP)
- Lorenzo Cain (KC): $4,500 @ BAL
- Adam Jones (BAL): $4,400 vs. KC (GPP)
My Lineup
- SP – Charlie Morton (HOU): $10,600 vs. TB
- SP – Mike Clevinger (CLE): $7,800 @ BOS
- C – Brian McCann (HOU): $3,900 vs. TB
- 1B – Justin Smoak (TOR): $4,900 @ CWS
- 2B – Whit Merrifield (KC): $4,200 @ BAL
- 3B – Alex Bregman (HOU): $3,800 vs. TB
- SS – Wilmer Difo (WAS): $4,000 @ MIA
- OF – Jose Bautista (TOR): $4,000 @ CWS
- OF – Brandon Moss (KC): $3,600 @ BAL
- OF – Alex Gordon (KC): $3,200 @ BAL
Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.