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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Saturday (7/1)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Saturday (7/1)

Tonight’s roster features a double stack, and there is a similar thread between the two. Both stacks pick on bad (or likely overmatched) pitchers. I’m not reinventing the wheel. The pitcher pairing on this squad features an ace, and the only five-figure arm I’d use as well as a cheap SP2 who’s been in good form of late. The SP2 has the added benefit of potentially facing a watered down lineup as part of game two of a doubleheader. Speaking of doubleheaders, there are two today, and that makes projecting lineups a little trickier. One of the stacks is playing in a doubleheader, and as a result of the lineup unpredictability, I’m going against my norm of not including honorable mentions at stack positions and doing so today. The roster is geared toward GPPs, but I’m very comfortable using it in cash games, too.

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Pitcher

Zack Greinke (ARI): $11,900 vs. Rockies
By my estimation, Greinke is a top-five starting pitcher. Among qualified starters, he ranks tied for 12th in ERA (3.08), 12th in FIP (3.29), seventh in xFIP (3.16), tied for ninth in K% (28.4%), sixth in K-BB% (23.0%), and tied for eighth in SwStr% (13.6%), according to FanGraphs, and eighth in DRA (2.49) among pitchers who’ve thrown a minimum of 75 innings, per Baseball Prospectus. He’s posting these gaudy numbers despite playing home games at hitter-friendly Chase Field. He and the Diamondbacks are -148 favorites in a game with an over/under total of nine runs, according to Pinnacle. Greinke’s matchup against the visiting Rockies is great, too. Colorado ranks dead last in wRC+ (78) against righties and has a 22.1% K% against them. They also rank tied for 26th in wRC+ (81) on the road while striking out at a 23.6% clip, and over the last 14 days, they rank 29th in wRC+ (61) while striking out in 23.3% of their plate appearances. Greinke’s worth every penny tonight.

Jason Hammel (KC): $6,800 vs Twins
Hammel’s full-season totals aren’t good, but over the last 30 days, he owns a 2.51 ERA (3.85 FIP, 4.73 xFIP, and 4.30 SIERA), 1.02 WHIP, 3.0% BB%, 18.7% K%, and 10.5% SwStr%. As I stated in the intro, it’s possible he’ll see a watered down Twins lineup in the second game of the doubleheader. Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack in wRC+ (98) against righties checking in at 14th, and they’ve struck out in 22.3% of their plate appearances against them. They’re a slightly below average offense on the road ranking 18th in wRC+ (89), and over the last 14 days, they rank dead last in wRC+ (58) while striking out in a whopping 25.3% of their plate appearances. Hammel’s a nifty value at under $7,000 on a slate light on viable bargain arms.

Honorable Mention

Catcher

Austin Hedges (SD): $2,800 vs. Dodgers
Hedges has struggled against lefties in The Show, but he’s translating the plus power he showed off in the minors last year to the majors this year. The sample size against lefties is small, and Hedges has pummeled southpaws the last two years in the minors, so I’m not ready to write off his ability to put a charge into the ball against them. Last year, he smoked eight homers with a .376 OBP, .738 SLG, and 1.114 OPS in 80 at-bats against lefties, per MiLB.com. Call Hedges a punt or a tater-chase option. Both labels are correct.

Honorable Mention

First Base

Eric Hosmer (KC): $3,900 vs. Twins
The first of two stacks starts here with Hosmer. I’m not enamored with first base tonight, and that makes using Hosmer as part of a stack all the more appealing. He’ll be facing Felix Jorge. The 23-year-old pitcher is making his first start in the majors after making 25 starts at the Double-A level last year and this year combined. In those starts, he’s recorded a 3.66 ERA (4.23 FIP), 1.29 WHIP, 5.2% BB%, and 14.2% K%. I’m not convinced a young pitcher with those ho-hum numbers is ready for big-league hitting, and I’ll gladly stack against him. For Hosmer’s part, he owns a .357 OBP, .167 ISO, and 120 wRC+ against righties since 2014, and he’ll bat cleanup.

Honorable Mention

Second Base

Logan Forsythe (LAD): $3,200 @ Padres
Forsythe is a grossly underpriced lefty killer with a .345 OBP, .220 ISO, and 131 wRC+ against southpaws since 2014, and he’s the first piece of the second stack. Dillon Overton has faced 166 righties in The Show and coughed up a .398 OBP, .721 SLG, and .458 wOBA to them. He was tattooed by Triple-A hitters while he was still in the Mariners organization before the Padres claimed him off waivers. He’ll be no match for Dodgers hitters.

Third Base

Mike Moustakas (KC): $4,200 vs. Twins
Moose smacked his 21st homer of the year last night, and he has a .329 OBP, .266 ISO, and 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year. Jake Lamb is intriguing at the hot corner, but when factoring in the gap in salary, Moose is my favorite play at third base. The options listed below are only there in the event Moustakas sits in the second game of the doubleheader.

Honorable Mentions

Shortstop

Corey Seager (LAD): $5,400 @ Padres
Seager won’t hold the platoon advantage, but he’s been far from a dud in lefty-lefty matchups. In his career, he has a .348 OBP, .181 ISO, and 119 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Overton has held the 16 lefties he’s faced this year to a .164 wOBA, but he coughed up three homers to just 25 lefties faced last year, and the 41 he’s faced in his young career have a .615 SLG and .384 wOBA against him while striking out just 7.3% of the time.

Outfield

Cody Bellinger (LAD): $5,600 @ Padres
After citing Overton’s homer-prone ways against lefties and inability to miss their bats, it was obvious Bellinger would get the nod on this roster, right? The rookie slugger has just 65 plate appearances against southpaws, but he’s made them count with a .338 OBP, .390 ISO, and 159 wRC+.

Jorge Soler (KC): $3,000 vs. Twins
Soler’s first season with his new team, the Royals, hasn’t gone according to plan. He was recently recalled from Triple-A, and he’s tallied three hits in his three games for the Royals since returning to the active roster. I bring up his stint in the minors because it was rather impressive. He’s shown he can crush minor-league pitching, and he gets to face, virtually, a minor-league pitcher tonight. Soler rehabbed at the Triple-A level before struggling with the Royals, and he was demoted in early June. From June 5 until June 27 (his last game in the minors), Soler hit eight homers with a .478 OBP, .403 ISO and 207 wRC+ in 92 plate appearances. Yup, I’ll take that at a punt price.

Trayce Thompson (LAD): $3,200 @ Padres
Thompson started against a lefty last night, but at least one of Chris TaylorKiké Hernandez, Yasiel Puig, and Thompson will be the odd man out if Seager supplants Hernandez at shortstop tonight. If Thompson is the odd man out, Jake Marisnick is a usable pivot. I’ve included him as an honorable mention, but that’s only as a direct pivot from Thompson. Getting back to Thompson, in his big-league career, he has a .238 ISO and 115 wRC+ against lefties, and he’d be a fourth crack at the overmatched Overton.

Honorable Mentions

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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