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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Tuesday (7/18)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Tuesday (7/18)

I didn’t initially set out to create a roster headlined by Clayton Kershaw, but I ended up with one. On that note, let me quickly point out why Robbie Ray nearly got the nod as the SP1 on the following team. Ray’s biggest problem is below-average control, but the Reds aren’t built to exploit that weakness. Cincinnati’s 7.0% BB% against southpaws this year is the third lowest, according to FanGraphs. If you’re uncomfortable with the SP2 I’m suggesting on this roster or would like to add an extra big bat, consider pivoting from Kershaw to Ray. Ray will be included as an honorable mention along with my preferred alternative SP2 — again, if you’re uncomfortable rolling the dice on the volatile one I’m going to suggest using. Part of the reason I was able to change gears and spin up to Kershaw was the presence of a grossly underpriced stack in a dreamy matchup. As is usually the case, I won’t be providing honorable mentions at the stack spots since the stack is integral to this roster.

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw (LAD): $14,000 @ White Sox
The Kershaw sales pitch is going to be short and sweet. The lefty is dominating this year as he usually does with a 2.18 ERA (3.01 FIP, 2.75 xFIP, and 2.88 SIERA, per FanGraphs, as well as a 2.52 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus), 0.88 WHIP, 4.4% BB%, 31.4% K%, and 13.7% SwStr%. He’s been unconscious of late, though, with a 2.04 ERA (2.44 FIP, 2.11 xFIP, and 2.09 SIERA), 0.76 WHIP, 4.6% BB%, 40.9% K%, and 16.4% SwStr% over the last 30 days. The Pale Hose are one of the best offenses in baseball against lefties ranking fourth with an 113 wRC+, but, frankly, it doesn’t matter. When Kershaw is locked in like this, he’ll carve up any squad. He and the Dodgers are staggering -290 favorites, according to Pinnacle.

Dylan Bundy (BAL): $6,300 vs. Rangers
Now do you see why I repeatedly cautioned that you might not be comfortable using my SP2 suggestion? Bundy’s not as good as he was to start the year, but he’s not as bad as he’s been of late, either. A big part of the reason I’m willing to roll the dice on Bundy is good ol’ fashion speculation. The righty’s velocity has yo-yo’d all year, but he hasn’t pitched since July 6, and this will be just his third start this month thanks in large part to the All-Star break. He’s just 1.2 innings short of tying his single-season high set last year, and I suspect the lengthy break between starts will serve Bundy well. His very good early-season work coupled with his very bad recent work result in a 4.33 ERA (4.86 FIP, 5.11 xFIP, 4.87 SIERA, and 5.32 DRA), 1.25 WHIP, 7.9% BB%, 18.9% K%, and 10.1% SwStr%. The ERA is far superior to the advanced metrics, but I believe that’s in large part a product of Bundy not getting full credit for his ability to induce popups at a high rate (14.4% this year and 16.5% for his career) as a skill. By that, I mean that the advanced metrics view his .271 BABIP as being luckier than it might truly be. It’s entirely possible Bundy gets knocked around, but as recently as June 24 he shined allowing three earned runs on five hits and four walks with eight strikeouts in a seven-inning win at Tampa Bay. The matchup fuels a high-ceiling for Bundy, too. The Rangers rank tied for 13th in wRC+ (98) versus righties this year while tying for the fifth highest strikeout rate (23.9%). I’m more drawn to the fact the Rangers are on the road, though. Texas ranks 25th in wRC+ (82) on the road and own the second highest road K% (26.9%).

Honorable Mentions

Catcher

Tony Wolters (COL): $2,700 vs. Padres
To be quite honest, Wolters being priced under $3,000 against a righty at Coors Field is a joke. The left-handed hitting catcher has a .409 OBP, .163 ISO, .388 wOBA, and 108 wRC+ against righties at Coors Field in his young career. Adding fuel to the fire is Dinelson Lamet‘s gas-can nature against left-handed batters. The rookie righty has yielded a .365 OBP, .682 SLG, .423 wOBA and seven homers to 96 lefties faced.

Honorable Mentions

First Base

Miguel Cabrera (DET): $3,700 @ Royals
The Tigers’ bats notoriously falter away from Comerica Park, but Miggy’s bat travels. Since 2015, he owns a .462 OBP, .196 ISO, and 166 wRC+ on the road against southpaws. In just 40 plate appearances on the road against lefties this year, his power has been absent (.031 ISO), but he’s still an on-base machine (.425 OBP). Cabrera and his right-handed teammates below have a juicy matchup with Travis Wood. The veteran lefty has coughed up a .415 OBP, .433 SLG, and .370 wOBA to the 106 righties he’s faced this year, and he’s yielded a wOBA north of .360 to righties in three of the last four years including this season. Even on the road, Detroit is expected to hang a crooked number with the game possessing an over/under total of 10.5 runs with the host Royals small favorites at -114.

Second Base

Ian Kinsler (DET): $3,600 @ Royals
Kinsler’s actually been a few ticks below average against lefties on the road in recent years. Since 2015, he has a .324 OBP, .139 ISO, and 95 wRC+ under those conditions. He’s an integral part of the stack as the leadoff hitter for the Tigers, though, and the other favorable factors offset the cons.

Third Base

Nick Castellanos (DET): $3,600 @ Royals
Castellanos is unfazed by facing lefties on the road. Since 2015, he’s tattooed them for a .309 OBP, .270 ISO, and 125 wRC+. His poor walk rate (5.6%) helps explain the low OBP, but his robust ISO is supported by an absurd batted-ball profile that includes a 31.5% LD%, 40.5% FB%, 0.0% IFFB%, 43.2% Hard%, and just an 8.1% Soft%. Wood’s struck out a paltry 16.0% of right-handed batters he’s faced this season. Allowing contact to Castellanos is unlikely to end well for the southpaw hurler.

Shortstop

Adeiny Hechavarria (TB): $2,400 @ Athletics
This is 100% a punt. Hechavarria starts at shortstop for the Rays, and he’s the only shortstop who is a good bet to be in the lineup in the $2,600-or-less bin (our salary restrictions after fleshing out the rest of the lineup with the outfield below). If one of the other cheap SS-eligible players is in their team’s lineup, feel free to turn to them instead of Hechavarria.

Honorable Mention

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon (COL): $5,600 vs. Padres
The only reason to spin down to the other big-ticket item I like in the outfield (Aaron Judge) is if Blackmon receives a day off. Blackmon’s been a thorn in the side of righties at Coors Field. Since 2015, he’s knocked them around for a .402 OBP, .240 ISO, .412 wOBA and 126 wRC+. He’s in a great position to add to Lamet’s woes against lefties from the top of Colorado’s lineup.

Carlos Gonzalez (COL): $3,600 vs. Padres
It’s no secret CarGo has been awful this season. That’s reflected in his salary. He’s sat in back-to-back days, but yesterday’s was a bit surprising with a righty toeing the rubber. You’ll obviously want to make sure he’s back in the lineup tonight, but Gonzalez would offer a cheap piece of lefty exposure to Lamet and the -156 favored Rockies in a game that projects to be a slugfest with an over/under total of 11.5 runs. As recently as last season, Gonzalez ripped off a .390 OBP, .260 ISO, .409 wOBA, and 123 wRC+ at home. And since 2015 — including his awful work this year — he has a .382 OBP, .301 ISO, .414 wOBA, and 129 wRC+ against righties at Coors Field.

J.D. Martinez (DET): $4,300 @ Royals
Martinez is another one of Detroit’s thunderous sluggers who doesn’t crater on the road. Since 2015, he has a .372 OBP, .184 ISO, and 128 wRC+ against lefties away from Comerica Park. He exited Monday with lower-back tightness, so be sure that he’s in Tuesday’s lineup.

Honorable Mentions

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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