12 games greet us as we return from the Fourth of July holiday, and it’s shaping up to be a prime slate in terms of offense. The weather could play a role in a few contests, so be sure to monitor those situations as the day unfolds. Let’s take a look at a tournament lineup for DraftKings.
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Pitcher
Gerrit Cole (PIT): $8,700 @ PHI
After tossing three straight strong outings, Cole took a step back in his last start against the Giants. He will look to rebound on the road against a Philadelphia team who ranks 28th on the season in terms of wRC+ against right-handed pitching and 30th over the last month. The Phillies are also striking out at a high clip, which boosts Cole’s stock tonight. Cole has been maddeningly inconsistent, but I think he ends up on the positive side of things when all is said and done this evening.
Jon Gray (COL): $7,600 vs. CIN
Gray looked sharp in his first outing since returning from the disabled list, as he struck out 10 hitters on his way to 28.7 DKP against the Diamondbacks. While there is always a risk in using a pitcher in Coors Field, I think there’s some merit to rolling the dice with him in tournaments.
Gray posted strong numbers at home last season, and while that alone is not enough to make him a lock, it certainly helps to make a case for him. The Reds strikeout right around league average against right-handed pitching, and for what it’s worth, their implied team run total isn’t quite as high as you’d normally see for a team in Denver. All in all, know the risks of utilizing a pitcher in such a prime hitting environment, but I think Gray is definitely a risk worth taking in tournaments tonight.
Other Notables
- Alex Wood (LAD): $11,600 vs. ARI
- Trevor Bauer (CLE): $7,300 vs. SD (GPP)
Catcher
Buster Posey (SF): $4,000 @ DET
Posey has a good record of accomplishment against lefties, as he’s posted a .391 wOBA/.196 ISO/151 wRC+ against them the past couple of seasons. Daniel Norris has been vulnerable to right-handed hitters in the past, and that trend has carried over into the 2017 season.
In 62.1 IP this year, Norris has allowed a .347 wOBA to right-handed batters, while his hard minus soft contact rate sits at a high 26.6%. Catcher is tricky tonight, so locking Posey into your lineups seems to make sense.
Other Notables
- Yadier Molina (STL): $4,000 vs. MIA (GPP)
- Salvador Perez (KC): $3,800 @ SEA
- Manny Pina (MIL): $3,700 vs. BAL (if he plays; GPP)
First Base
Matt Adams (ATL): $3,800 vs. HOU
With the return of Freddie Freeman to the lineup, Adams will likely be overlooked in roster construction. While Freeman wasted no time in collecting his first hit since being activated from the disabled list, Adams continued his strong play last night, collecting two hits in four at-bats, including a double.
Despite being shifted down to sixth in the order due to Freeman’s return, this is still a formidable lineup in which Adams should be able to produce. Tonight’s opposing pitcher is Joe Musgrove, who has been susceptible to lefties in his career. Musgrove is nothing to be afraid of, and I think Adams makes for a compelling tournament play as a result.
Other Notables
- Joey Votto (CIN): $5,400 @ COL (GPP)
- Freddie Freeman (ATL): $4,500 vs. HOU
- Miguel Cabrera (DET): $4,000 vs. SF (check status; GPP)
- Danny Valencia (SEA): $3,200 vs. KC
Second Base
Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,900 vs. BOS
Odor has cracked three home runs over his last five games, and he’s currently riding a modest seven-game hitting streak. HE will have a chance to keep things rolling tonight, as he will hold the platoon advantage over Doug Fister, who has really struggled against left-handed hitters over the past couple of seasons (.373 wOBA, 1.67 HR/9 in 151.1 IP). The weather looks to be prime for hitting in Texas tonight, so I love targeting Odor’s power upside in tournaments.
Other Notables
- Jose Ramirez (CLE): $5,000 vs. SD
- Jose Altuve (HOU): $5,000 @ ATL (GPP)
- Scooter Gennett (CIN): $4,700 @ COL (GPP)
- Ian Kinsler (DET): $3,800 vs. SF (cold)
Third Base
Nick Castellanos (DET): $4,100 vs. SF
Castellanos is rolling right now, as he’s collected 12 hits over his last 33 at-bats (.364 AVG), which includes two home runs. Ty Blach has really struggled against right-handed hitters, having allowed a .357 wOBA and eight home runs in 62.1 IP.
Castellanos has fared well against lefties the past couple of seasons, as he sports a .343 wOBA/.227 ISO since 2015. The Tigers have an implied run total in the upper fives, so there should be plenty of production to be had all over this lineup.
Other Notables
- Nolan Arenado (COL): $5,200 vs. CIN
- Miguel Sano (MIN): $4,700 vs. LAA (GPP)
- Logan Forsythe (LAD): $3,900 vs. ARI
Shortstop
Orlando Arcia (MIL): $3,800 vs. BAL
Despite hitting eighth in the batting order, Arcia is scorching hot right now, as he’s got 17 hits over his last 35 at-bats (.486 AVG), including three home runs. The Orioles are bringing a minor league call-up into the rotation for Chris Tillman, which could mean that this game gets ugly quickly. The Orioles have the 28th ranked bullpen in terms of xFIP, so I look for Arcia to continue his torrid pace, regardless of who is on the mound tonight.
Other Notables
- Carlos Correa (HOU): $5,200 @ ATL (check status)
- Corey Seager (LAD): $4,800 vs. ARI (GPP)
- Jean Segura (SEA): $4,100 vs. KC (GPP)
- Alcides Escobar (KC): $3,500 @ SEA
Outfielders
Charlie Blackmon (COL): $5,500 vs. CIN
Blackmon has just nine hits over his last 43 at-bats (.209 AVG), but he’s hit two home runs over that span. Scott Feldman is about as mediocre as they come, and that has led to an inflated run total that is pushing into the mid sixes for Colorado. Blackmon is an elite fantasy option virtually every night, and he should be targeted across all formats this evening.
Nelson Cruz (SEA): $4,400 vs. KC
Cruz returned to the lineup yesterday and nearly hit a home run in his first at-bat off of Danny Duffy. Jason Vargas has been a reverse splits pitcher, but it’s Cruz’s track record not only against Vargas (10 hits in 30 at-bats, four home runs) but lefties in general that I’m interested in tonight. Cruz has tattooed lefties over the past couple of seasons to the tune of a .424 wOBA/.313 ISO/175 wRC+, and he’s a phenomenal tournament option as a result.
J.D. Martinez (DET): $4,200 vs. SF
Speaking of sluggers who hit lefties well, Martinez is no slouch against left-handed pitching either, as he sports a .413 wOBA/.287 ISO)/164 wRC+ over the last few seasons. I touched on Ty Blach’s issues with right-handed hitters earlier, so be sure to get plenty of exposure to a certified lefty masher like Martinez this evening.
Other Notables
- Mookie Betts (BOS): $5,600 @ TEX (GPP)
- Bryce Harper (WAS): $5,300 vs. NYM (GPP)
- Cody Bellinger (LAD): $4,900 vs. ARI
- George Springer (HOU): $4,900 @ ATL
- Ryan Braun (MIL): $4,500 vs. BAL (GPP)
- Andrew McCutchen (PIT): $4,500 @ PHI
- Andrew Benintendi (BOS): $4,200 @ TEX
- Lorenzo Cain (KC): $3,900 @ SEA
My Lineup
- SP – Gerrit Cole (PIT): $8,700 @ PHI
- SP – Jon Gray (COL): $7,600 vs. CIN
- C – Buster Posey (SF): $4,000 @ DET
- 1B – Matt Adams (ATL): $3,800 vs. HOU
- 2B – Rougned Odor (TEX): $3,900 vs. BOS
- 3B – Nick Castellanos (DET): $4,100 vs. SF
- SS – Orlando Arcia (MIL): $3,800 vs. BAL
- OF – Charlie Blackmon (COL): $5,500 vs. CIN
- OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA): $4,400 vs. KC
- OF – J.D. Martinez (DET): $4,200 vs. SF
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
