FanDuel MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (7/14)

by Bobby Sylvester | @bobbyfantasypro | Featured Writer
Jul 14, 2017

Don’t sleep on the Mariners’ Kyle Seager at his deflated price

Welcome back for second-half baseball! Tonight, we’ve got a full 15-game evening slate with all kinds of big money tournaments to choose from. There aren’t any superstar pitchers on the mound, nor is there a Coors game, but the slate is loaded with quality pitching that will make building a lineup quite the task.

There is a threat of delays in STL @ PIT and COL @ NYM with a potential cancellation in the CHC @ BAL game so make sure to keep an eye on those ones. As has been the trend of late, there is no significant wind condition to worry about or capitalize on.

For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.

Win cash playing in FanDuel’s MLB Squeeze >>

Pitcher

James Paxton (SEA): $9,200 @ CHW

As I mentioned, this is an extremely odd night with only 3 of the 15 games possessing a -138 or higher Vegas favorite. The expected winning pitchers in those are Zach Davies (no thank you), Charlie Morton and Paxton. I’ll say this for the cheaper Morton, he is clearly the second best play on the slate for cash games, but Paxton is much safer. We know he is going to get the strikeouts, the win and quality start are as safe as can be outside of a Kershaw, Sale, Scherzer, Kluber start, and he goes up against a team who is among the league’s worst in scoring runs.

Catcher

Alex Avila (DET): $2,700 vs TOR

Typically, it is a struggle to find a worthwhile catcher to plug into your lineup. Tonight, I wish there were 3 or 4 catcher spots to fill. Posey against a mediocre lefty is always a terrific play too, especially at his price, but Avila has been one of the best hitter’s in baseball and there is reason to believe his numbers should actually be even better. Avila is the only hitter with 200 PA this season that has a hard-hit rate above 50%. His is a whopping 55.8 and he also leads all of baseball in line drive percentage! Add in the fact that he is batting a ridiculous .310/.434/.563 against righties and you’d be dense to fade him in cash games.

First Base

Eric Thames (MIL): $3,500 vs PHI

For what it’s worth, I love me some Nick Pivetta, but Vegas does not foresee the best outing from him tonight and there is a reason they are raking in loads of money. Thames is crushing the ball over the past 30 days with a 41% hard hit rate and just a .229 BABIP to show for it. He has had a rougher go of it since his hot start, but has still been tremendous (.983 OPS) against righties like Pivetta.

Mariners Stack

Robinson Cano (2B): $3,200 @ CHW
Kyle Seager (3B): $2,500 @ CHW
Jean Segura (SS): $3,800 @ CHW

Seattle is one of only three teams with over 5 implied runs tonight by Vegas. They see a ballpark upgrade from Seattle to Chicago and go against James Shields, who has been throwing batting practice for two years now. One or perhaps two of these guys will take him deep tonight and I expect each of them to spend multiple times on base and scoring a few runs. Seager and Cano have both “struggled” over the last month, but their .224 and .264 BABIPs tell much of the story. We know both to be consistent and reliable hitters throughout their career, so expect much of the same in the second half. Segura is rightly priced, for what it’s worth, but the shortstop options tonight are abysmal so he gets the nod.

Outfield

Bryce Harper (WAS): $4,600 @ CIN

In the park that was built for Ken Griffey Jr, Harper should feast. He draws potentially the worst starting pitcher on the slate in Tim Adleman and the Nationals, as you might expect, are expected to score more runs than any other team tonight according to Vegas. If there was ever a time to splurge on Harper, it would be in tonight’s tough slate for hitters.

Ian Happ (CHC) : $3,400 @ BAL

Over his past 30 games, Happ has 8 homers and is hitting .291 with 3 steals. The rookie should be batting cleanup again and while Kevin Gausman is pitching better lately, he is still one of the easiest pitchers to pick on from the slate and there is a ballpark upgrade to factor in. It is worth noting, however, that there is a threat for some weather in this game so keep an eye on it.

Nick Williams (PHI) : $2,100 @ MIL

It is always worth considering a player this cheap who is expected to be batting 3rd. Williams, however, is a special case. He isn’t any kind of $2,100 player. He would be worth playing for $1,000 more with the big ballpark upgrade, a crummy opponent in Zach Davies and the spot in the order. We haven’t seen the best of the rookie since his call-up, but don’t be discouraged, he has raked at every level in his minor league stop, hence why the Phillies are batting him 3rd.

Other Top Options (in order)

  1. Buster Posey (C – SFG)
  2. Manny Machado (3B – BAL)
  3. Daniel Murphy (2B – WAS)
  4. Rougned Odor (2B – TEX)
  5. Luke Voit (1B – STL)
  6. Nomar Mazara (OF – TEX)
  7. Freddie Freeman (3B – ATL)
  8. Brian Goodwin (OF – WAS)
  9. David Peralta (OF – ARI)
  10. Trey Mancini (1B – BAL)
  11. Corey Seager (SS – LAD)
  12. A.J. Pollock (OF – ARI)
  13. Welington Castillo (C – BAL)
  14. Logan Morrison (1B – TBR)
  15. Brad Zimmer (OF – CLE)
  16. Ryan Braun (OF – MIL)
  17. Joey Gallo (3B – TEX)
  18. Orlando Arcia (SS – MIL)
  19. Salvador Perez (C – KCR)
  20. Francisco Lindor (SS – CLE)
  21. Christian Yelich (OF – MIA)
  22. Steven Souza (OF – TBR)
  23. Jonathan Schoop (2B – BAL)
  24. Tommy Pham (OF – STL)

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