Often when we’re scouring the waiver wire, we’re looking for players to bolster a particular category, rather than the next trendy up-and-comer. Looking for stolen bases? Home runs? ERA and WHIP?
I’ve got you covered. I present to you Week 16’s fantasy baseball 5×5 category targets. For this exercise, I’ll be using ESPN ownership percentages. Stats are accurate entering Friday’s contests.
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Batting Average
Gerardo Parra (OF – COL): 32.1%
Parra has been tearing it up since returning from the DL on July 7th, sporting a 1.370 OPS over his last nine games. On the year, across 199 plate appearances, he has an impressive .364/.387/.549 line, and has chiseled down his strikeout rate to 14.6%. While it’s safe to say he won’t hold such a lofty line all season — and has just modest power — he’s getting regular playing time in the middle of the Colorado Rockies’ order, and it’s never a bad idea to invest in a guy who calls Coors Field home.
Home Runs
Mike Napoli (1B – TEX): 19.5%
Yes, the .209 batting average stings, but Napoli is beginning to heat up, with seven bombs in the month of July alone. He has 21 on the season, and is fully capable of matching the 34 he had in 2016. An ugly 32.5% strikeout rate means we shouldn’t expect any miracles regarding that average, but he’s managed to hit .292 this month, so maybe he can avoid being a complete sink hole, and creep closer to last year’s .239 mark.
RBIs
Josh Bell (1B – PIT) : 22.9%
Nick Williams (OF – PHI) : 9.2%
Bell looks to be on the upswing, with a .357 wOBA and 38.7% hard-hit rate since the start of June. Although he hits more groundballs than we like, putting a damper on his home run potential, he should continue to be a solid source of RBIs while batting cleanup for the Pittsburgh Pirates. An unlucky .256 BABIP also means his .240 average should improve moving forward.
Williams hasn’t wasted any time fitting in at the major league level, with a .963 OPS and 48.8% hard-hit rate through his first 16 games. A 25.4% strikeout rate suggests we shouldn’t have high expectations for his batting average, but he’s beginning to get starts out of the three-hole, which should give him plenty of RBI opportunities.
Runs
Odubel Herrera (OF – PHI) : 34.1%
It’s been a disappointing year for Herrera, but he’s beginning to show signs of life. Following a disastrous May slump, since the start of June he’s hit a respectable .314/.351/.528 with a 36.1% hard-hit rate. Herrera is bouncing all over the lineup these days, but if he can continue his improved play, perhaps he’ll regain a regular spot in the top third of the order, and return to being an ample source of runs. His five stolen bases don’t jump off the page, but it’s easy to forget he stole 25 in 2016.
Stolen Bases
Tommy Pham (OF – STL): 54.5%
Mallex Smith (OF – TBR): 12.9%
The majority of fantasy owners are finally taking notice of Pham, who has been a beast across the board with 47 runs, 13 homers, 40 RBIs, 13 stolen bases, and a .309 average. He probably strikes out too much to keep hitting over .300, but you’ll happily take this kind of fantasy production, and he should be snatched up in all leagues. His .378 BABIP is unsustainable, but we shouldn’t worry too much given his 39.6% hard-hit rate and .357 xwOBA.
This is your weekly reminder to grab Smith if you need stolen bases. He’s swiped four bags across his last 11 games.
Wins
Kevin Gausman (SP -BAL): 30.1%
Okay, it might seem crazy to recommend a pitcher with a 6.11 ERA, but hear me out. The ERA may remain ugly, but over his last seven starts, Gausman has an eye-popping 30.8% strikeout rate and 3.32 xFIP, so he hasn’t been as bad as you might think, and even has three wins in that span. His overall struggles leave him as more of a deep league target, but remember that Gausman had a 3.61 ERA last year, and for all the Orioles’ woes, they still have a potent enough offense to help in the wins department.
Strikeouts
Luis Castillo (RP/SP – CIN): 19.8%
Castillo is flying under the radar, and now could be your last chance to get him before your league mates take notice. Through six starts, Castillo has maintained high marks across the board, with a 3.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29.5% strikeout rate, and 55.7% ground-ball rate. Even more impressively, he’s done it against tough opponents like the Nationals, Diamondbacks and Rockies (at Coors). The future looks bright for the 24-year-old, and it will be fun to see what he can do as the matchups get easier.
ERA and WHIP
Trevor Cahill (RP/SP – SDP): 37.3%
Cahill gets a nod for the second straight week, as he has remained under 50% owned despite some gaudy numbers. Across 10 starts he has a 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 29.5% strikeout rate and 56.8% ground-ball rate. Walks have occasionally been trouble for Cahill in his career, but he’s even managed a respectable 8.3% walk rate too. Outside of playing for the San Diego Padres, who are unlikely to do him any favors in wins, there’s every reason to believe in Cahill can keep rolling as a strong fantasy asset.
Saves
Tyler Clippard (RP – CWS) : 9.3%
Anthony Swarzak (RP -CWS) : 6.7%
Following his trade to the Chicago White Sox, it was quickly announced that Clippard will be the new guy manning the ninth inning. But considering Clippard’s unsettling 4.95 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, should he stumble, Swarzak (2.45 ERA) looms as a viable replacement. It’s hard to say how many opportunities the lowly White Sox will provide, but at least the situation is less messy than the maddening committees of the Cardinals and Rangers. For now, Clippard is the one to own, but if he’s already gone, Swarzak deserves a speculative add in deep leagues.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
