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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (7/17 – 7/23)

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (7/17 – 7/23)

With about two months remaining in the season, the playoff race is heating up and some significant trades will take place. Flags fly forever and the equivalent is true in fantasy baseball. Contending teams should be willing to make moves to push for a championship title, so player stocks are as relevant as ever.

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Rising in Value

Patrick Corbin (SP – ARI)
After struggling through 2016 and most of 2017, Corbin appears to be back on track. Over his past eight starts, he has a 26.1% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 3.04 ERA, and 2.77 FIP. Over this time frame, Corbin also has generated swinging strikes 13.1% of the time, and his peripherals over the full season are now above-average.

Manny Machado (3B – BAL)
Machado has been a huge disappointment for those who drafted him in the first round, but he’s also turning around his season. Since July 7, Machado is slashing .404/.491/.574 with vastly improved plate discipline. His .361 xwOBA versus .325 wOBA indicates that he’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in the league this year.

Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY)
He’s still getting blown up every few starts, but Tanaka has been pitching like more of an ace lately. In the past month, his ERA is 3.46 with a 3.42 FIP. While his ERA on the season is still 5.36, his strikeout and walk rates are pretty much in line with his career rates, though his 14.6% swinging strike rate represents a career best. Count on continuity from this past month.

Jose Quintana (SP – CHC)
In Quintana’s first two starts with the Cubs, he’s given up three runs in 13 innings with 19 strikeouts and two walks. Moving to the NL and a less hitter-friendly ballpark should remedy a mediocre first half of the season. He’ll be a star with a greater national spotlight on him, pitching for the defending World Series champions.

Zach Granite (OF – MIN)
This is one for deeper leagues, but Granite is finally in the majors after slashing .360/.412/.492 in Triple-A with 15 SBs. While his .242/.306/.272 line over 10 major league games is less impressive, Granite has displayed Votto-esque plate discipline. He’s swinging and missing just 3.6% of the time with a 10.2% O-Swing rate. He’s a sneaky OBP and SB candidate going forward.

Falling in Value

Jeff Hoffman (SP – COL)
Hoffman’s elite peripherals have evaporated since his first few starts with an 11.7% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate over his past seven games. He now has a 5.10 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 4.63 SIERA on the season. Pitching in Colorado, Hoffman’s ERA is likely to remain above what his peripherals would suggest. Outside of keeper and deep leagues, he’s safe to drop now.

Adam Duvall (OF – CIN)
Duvall has 20 HRs this year, but his last one came on July 6. Since then, his plate discipline has nosedived with a 17.6% swinging strike rate and 38.9% O-Swing rate. He also has a .308 xwOBA compared to .355 wOBA. Pitchers won’t give Duvall much to hit so long as he’s swinging at everything, so the HR drought could continue until he makes adjustments.

Tommy Joseph (1B – PHI)
With top hitting prospect Rhys Hoskins mashing at Triple-A, Joseph needs to hit to retain his job. A 95 wRC+ isn’t going to cut it. In his last 15 games, Joseph is batting .236 with just one HR. He’s been helpful from a power perspective this season but won’t have any value from the bench. At this point, it’s a matter of when, not if, Hoskins takes over at first base.

Eric Thames (1B/OF – MIL)
Thames’ revival was one of the early-season story lines, but from June onward he’s struck out 36.1% of the time with nine HRs. His .339 xwOBA is significantly worse than his .379 wOBA, so further regression may be incoming. Plate discipline made Thames an elite hitter in April and May, but he’s now swinging and missing higher than his career average.

Blake Snell (SP – TB)
Snell was recently recalled after a strong Triple-A showing, but he hasn’t shown much improvement in three major league starts since. While his 27.0% strikeout rate in those starts is elite, he’s walked batters at a 19.1% rate. Until Snell can reign in his control, he’s not a worthwhile fantasy asset.


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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.

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