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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (7/3 – 7/9)

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (7/3 – 7/9)

The first half of the season has concluded, and it’s been an especially interesting year for fantasy – provided your team hasn’t been ravaged by injuries. The All-Star Break provides much needed time to reclaim the sanity of baseball writers hunched over spreadsheets in the late hours of the night and enjoy the festivities of the week. However, here’s a final update on stock changes over the last week of the first half.

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Rising in Value

Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)
Nola has been lights out over his last four starts, striking out 34 and walking nine over 29.1 innings with a 1.53 ERA. He’s dropped his season ERA from 4.76 to 3.56 over that stretch. Nola is walking a few more batters than he did last season, but his results are starting to fall into line with his strong peripherals.

Robinson Cano (2B – SEA)
Cano’s .276 batting average would be his worst since 2008, but his strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and he’s heading into the All-Star Break with 17 HRs. On top of improved plate discipline, Cano is underperforming his .376 xwOBA by 24 points. Expect him to bat in the .280-.300 range with continued power in the second half.

Carlos Santana (1B/OF – CLE)
With 10 HRs and a .237 average, Santana’s 2017 has been somewhat of a disappointment after posting his best offensive numbers in 2016. His .333 wOBA should be closer to his .358 xwOBA in the second half, as his batted ball profile is very similar to what it was last year. He’ll never be an elite contact hitter, but Santana should be projected to improve across the board.

Luis Castillo (SP – CIN)
In his most recent start, Castillo went into Arizona and pitched 6.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and one walk in an extreme hitter’s park. He now carries an elite 30.6% strikeout rate after four starts. Walks have been an issue, but his walk rate was just 4.1% in 14 Triple-A starts, so there is room for improvement.

Hanley Ramirez (1B – BOS)
Over his final ten games of the half, Ramirez slashed .333/.362/.622, well above his season line of .257/.344/.442. He can be expected to continue this streak into the second half with a .358 xwOBA that is closer to his 2016 season than first half of 2017. Ramirez is a streaky player, so it’s possible for him to go on a tear at any moment.

Falling in Value

Corey Dickerson (OF – TBR)
Dickerson’s bounce back has been one of the most surprising first half story lines, but it comes loaded with red flags. He’s running an unsustainable .363 BABIP without much change in his batted ball profile and has outperformed his .320 xwOBA by 57 points. I’d be selling to anyone buying into what he’s done so far.

Tyson Ross (SP – TEX)
After missing almost all of the 2016 season and most of 2017, Ross is finally back, though he hasn’t been sharp. Among pitchers with at least 20 innings, Ross’ 4.7 K-BB% ranks 385 out of 413. He’s also allowing flyballs at a 41.7% rate, compared to his 25.0% career average. Ross clearly isn’t the same pitcher he was from 2014-15, though he may still be shaking off rust.

Jonathan Lucroy (C – TEX)
Lucroy was universally drafted among the top three catchers, but he has just four HRs and a .256 average so far. He’s actually making more contact this year than he ever has previously, however, the quality of that contact is very poor. Lucroy has a 54.4% groundball rate, almost 10% above his career high, and needs to make serious adjustments to perform better over the second half.

Steven Matz (SP – NYM)
Like Tyson Ross, Matz has been working his way back from an injury this season and hasn’t been his usual self. His 2.12 ERA has been buoyed by a 96.4% strand rate and .214 BABIP, and regression is looming. Matz has a 5.7% swinging strike rate, down from 9.8% in 2016, and his strikeout rate has dropped as a result.

Taijuan Walker (SP – ARI)
Walker has been pretty good on the surface this year with a 3.65 ERA, but he’s walking more batters and relying on a potentially unsustainable batted ball stats. His HR/FB rate has dropped from 17.6% in 2016 to 8.9% despite moving from a pitcher-friendly park to a hitter friendly one without much improvement in skills.


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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.

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