We’ve almost made it to the halfway point in the season with the All-Star Game coming up just after 4th of July weekend. And what better way to celebrate than talking baseball? Here are a few candidates primed to see continued improvement or decline over the second half of the season.
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Rising in Value
Kenta Maeda (SP – LAD)
Maeda was briefly demoted to the bullpen, but he certainly belongs in the starting rotation. He carries a strong 18.6 K-BB%. Though his 3.87 FIP forecasts improvement, it may not go far enough. Among pitchers with at least 200 ABs against, Maeda ranks 12th out of 139 with a .270 xwOBA. Expect a big second half if the Dodgers continue to have faith.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF – BOS)
Over the first two months of the season, Bradley hit .217 with six HRs, but June reversed his fortunes and he bat .353 with four HRs. The real Bradley is probably somewhere in the middle, as his .374 wOBA is now just two points over his .372 xwOBA, but he’s shown that the 2016 breakout wasn’t a fluke and that he can be a very good offensive contributor going forward.
Rich Hill (SP – LAD)
Hill suffered through a rough first half of the season, but he may have turned a corner with 26 strikeouts and six walks over his last three starts. 2016 Rich Hill was one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, so a return to that form is quite valuable. There will always be injury concerns with the 37-year-old curveball artist, but he’s dominant right now.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS – NYM)
Though he’s one of the better offensive shortstops in baseball, Cabrera is still owned in just 18% of fantasy leagues. He carries a .340 xwOBA and should be a source of 20+ HR power with a respectable batting average. The Mets may limit his run scoring production, but he’s a solid injury replacement or starter in deep leagues.
Dinelson Lamet (SP – SD)
Lamet is one of my favorite deep sleepers for the second half of the season. His 5.35 ERA will scare most managers away, but he does have an elite 25.0 K-BB% and 3.21 SIERA. In his last start against the Braves, Lamet struck out eight and walked one over seven innings with a 12/5 GB/FB rate. Now is the time to buy in.
Falling in Value
Gerrit Cole (SP – PIT)
Cole’s dominant 2015 season is becoming a distant memory as he’s failed to improve on a middling 2016. His 14.0 K-BB% is just ok and Cole is allowing a career-worst 33.8% hard contact rate with a .333 xwOBA. His plate discipline stats are close to what they were last year, so he looks like a high 3s ERA pitcher going forward.
John Lackey (SP – CHC)
Lackey is trending in the wrong direction, and at 38, it’s fair to question if he’s running on empty. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and like Cole, he is allowing the highest rate of hard contact of his career. Lackey’s .351 xwOBA is just seven points lower than his .358 wOBA, so luck doesn’t seem to be the culprit behind his abysmal season.
Matt Wieters (C – WAS)
Catcher has been surprisingly deep this year with breakout performances from players like Alex Avila and Tyler Flowers, but Wieters has been among the worst full-time starters offensively. He’s running a .241/.293/.380 line with a .294 xwOBA and doesn’t have the same plate discipline or power he did earlier in his career.
Albert Pujols (1B – LAA)
Pujols’ fall from one of the best players in the game has been precipitous. He’s on pace to be a below average hitter for the first time in his career with a 73 wRC+ in the first half. There’s not much pointing to a rebound, so Pujols is a hard sell if the name recognition carries any value at this point.
Brandon Crawford (SS – SF)
Crawford has dropped off from a solid, yet unspectacular offensive performer from 2014-16 to a poor showing in 2017. His swinging strike rate is up to 14.1%, along with a 20.8% soft contact rate – his highest since 2011. It’s hard to pinpoint a reason for the sudden decline in skills, but don’t bank on much improvement this year.
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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.
