David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle owners — or former owners, in many cases at this point — have to have been thoroughly disappointed by the deal sending the duo with Todd Frazier to the Yankees. The two former Pale Hose are behind both Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances in the saves pecking order in the Bronx. Robertson owners have to be especially chapped since the expectation has long been he’d end up closing for whoever acquired him with the obvious fit being the Nationals. Unless you’re in deep leagues that value non-closing relievers or holds formats, both Robertson and Kahnle can be cast to the waiver wire. Now, let’s move on to the week ahead.
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Notable Matchups
Braves @ Diamondbacks (3), @ Phillies (3)
SunTrust Park checks in the bottom half in home-run park factor, ranking 18th, per ESPN. Atlanta’s on the road for six games next week, though, and the bats will get a power lift playing in two of the top three parks (Chase Field, second, and Citizens Bank Park, third) in homer park factor this year. The three-year rolling average used at StatCorner also shows Chase Field and CBP to be two of the more homer-friendly parks in the league.
Cubs vs. White Sox (2), @ White Sox (2), @ Brewers (3)
Next week is a great opportunity for the Cubs’ offense to get fat. They draw this super-soft collection of probable starting pitchers. Their offense will also get a boost from the addition of the designated hitter for two games as well as from the hitter-friendly conditions at Miller Park for three games to close the week.
Reds @ Indians (1), @ Yankees (2), @ Marlins (4)
The Reds play seven games in three different parks — none of those parks being their home park, Great American Ball Park — next week. The first three games of the week are in American League parks, thus, they’ll be able to deploy a designated hitter. The final four games of the week are in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in MLB.
Rockies @ Cardinals (3), @ Nationals (3)
Colorado’s offense is much worse on the road (.251/. 314/.386) than at home (.300/.354/.504), and they’ll play all six of their games next week away from the thin Rocky Mountain air.
Tigers vs. Royals (3), vs. Astros (3)
It’s no secret that teams like the Diamondbacks and Rockies are much better in their hitter-friendly home ballparks than on the road, but the Tigers have one of the more surprising gaps in production between playing at home and on the road. The Tigers are a well below average offense on the road, but they are hitting .277/.349/.470 at home, per FanGraphs. They’re at home for all six games next week, and as a result, their hitters get a lift.
Marlins @ Rangers (3), vs Reds (4)
There are a few things working in the favor of Miami’s hitters this week. First, they play a full complement of seven games. Second, they’ll use a designated hitter for three games in Texas to start the week. Finally, they close the week with four games against the team with the highest team ERA in MLB.
Brewers @ Nationals (3), vs. Cubs (3)
The Brewers are scuffling to start the second half, and opening next week with Gio Gonzalez and Max Scherzer is unlikely to help them right the ship. They also project to face Jose Quintana. The lefty had an impressive debut with his new club, and he’d already put a slow start to the year behind him in advance of being acquired by his new employer.
Mets @ Padres (4), @ Mariners (3)
The Mets are one of the few teams that hit better on the road (.263/.334/.492) than at home (.239/.311/.401). They’re on the road for all seven games next week, and the offense will get some help with the designated hitter in three games at Seattle to cap next week off.
Yankees vs. Reds (2), vs. Rays (4)
The Yankees offense has been excellent this year, and they’re especially good at home hitting .266/.347/.483 at Yankee Stadium. They’re home for all six of their games next week.
Pirates @ Giants (3), @ Padres (3)
The Pirates have six road tilts split three and three between two of the most pitcher-friendly parks at AT&T Park and Petco Park.
Giants vs. Pirates (3), @ Dodgers (3)
The Giants have a nightmare run of starting pitchers to oppose next week starting with Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon before the Dodgers’ lethal trio of lefties Alex Wood, Rich Hill, and Clayton Kershaw.
Cardinals vs. Rockies (3), vs. Diamondbacks (4)
The Red Birds play seven games at home next week, and the pitching matchups could be rather formidable. Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray have sub-3 ERA’s, and Zack Godley’s sits at 3.09. Jeff Hoffman’s also a much tougher pitcher on the road than at Coors Field. He has a 2.45 ERA in 33.0 innings on the road this season.
Hitter Notes
Starling Marte (PIT)
Marte rejoined Pittsburgh’s active roster on Tuesday after completing his 80-game PED suspension. He spent the beginning of the month raking in the minors while preparing to rejoin the Buccos. In 10 games and 44 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, he hit .325/.386/.425 with four stolen bases in four attempts. He’s recorded a hit in each of his two games back, and he’s one of MLB’s premier base stealers. It doesn’t look like there’s rust to be wary of.
Manny Machado (BAL)
The buy-low window — if one ever existed — has officially slammed shut on Machado. Gamers who spent a first-round pick or a high second-rounder on him have to be disappointed with his overall line this year, but he’s back to being Manny this month. In the month of July, he’s hitting .350/.409/.550 with three homers and a stolen base. Machado’s made plenty of loud contact this year, as evidenced by his career-high 40.3% Hard% this year, per FanGraphs.
J.D. Martinez (ARI)
Fantasy gamers who own Martinez have been on quite a roller coaster ride. First, there was the high of the Diamondbacks acquiring him and the boost that comes from trading Comerica Park for Chase Field as his home digs. That was followed by the low that accompanied his being struck on the hand by a pitch in just his second at-bat with his new team. The good news is that X-rays on his hand came back negative. He could play again as soon as this weekend if the swelling in his hand subsides and Martinez feels up to it. Regardless, unless there’s a surprising setback, he can be counted on in all league types next week.
Carlos Correa (HOU)
Not much has gone wrong for the Astros this year, but they were dealt a big blow with Correa suffering a torn thumb ligament that will sideline him for 6-to-8 weeks. Correa was having a monster season, and the gap between his offensive output and the offense available at shortstop on the wire is stark. Losing a superstar to injury is never easy, but at other positions, the replacement level of talent is higher. Correa represents the second huge blow to the shortstop position following the loss of Trea Turner to a fractured wrist nearly a month ago. In many head-to-head leagues, gamers who are in contention might have to bite the bullet holding him. In roto leagues, however, it’s defensible to cut ties if you don’t have bench/DL openings. Even if he returns at the six-week mark, that would be the beginning of September, and there’s a chance he’ll have rust to shake off and/or depressed power since the injury occurred to his hand. If it takes him eight weeks to return, we’re talking about the middle of September and stashing Correa for just a few weeks of production — likely at less than 100% of the fire-breathing giant we’ve seen thus far this year and throughout his young career.
Pitcher Notes
Danny Salazar (CLE)
Salazar is set to make his return this weekend. Corey Kluber was initially scheduled to start tonight, but he’s dealing with a stiff neck. Kluber’s neck soreness opens the door for Salazar’s activation from the disabled list. A sore right shoulder put him on the shelf in early June, but a wretched start to the year assured he’d stay down there to work things out for a bit even if his shoulder felt better at the end of the minimum 10 days on the DL. In his most recent start at the Triple-A level on July 16, he pitched six scoreless innings allowing three hits, three walks, and striking out nine. He made four rehab starts, and they were spread out across three levels (Low-A, Double-A, and Triple-A). Even as he struggled early in the year, Salazar racked up a gaudy 15.8% SwStr% and 30.9% K%. Poor control (11.2% BB%) helped fuel an unsightly 1.58 WHIP which, in turn, helped fuel an ugly 5.40 ERA. A 1.80 HR/9 rate didn’t help matters, either. Salazar has probably been kicked to the curb in many leagues. I wouldn’t immediately thrust him into starting lineups, but his upside is great enough to give him a look in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers. My advice is to grab him in advance of his weekend start and keep him glued to the bench. If he’s not pummeled by the Blue Jays, re-evaluate his rest-of-season outlook after the start. Leaving him on the wire and waiting to grab him until after the start can prove costly if Salazar blows the Blue Jays away.
Collin McHugh (HOU)
An elbow impingement has kept McHugh sidelined all year, but he’ll make his season debut Saturday night. The linked article to Jake Kaplan’s piece in the Houston Chronicle informs readers that McHugh was stretched out to “roughly 90 pitches,” in his last start at the Double-A level (69 pitches in the game followed by an “extra 20 or so pitches he threw in the bullpen”). McHugh’s ceiling isn’t as high as the aforementioned Salazar, but his work in 2016 is deep-league viable. Furthermore, he’s backed by an elite offense — even in the absence of Correa — that should help provide the run support needed to win games. McHugh’s 2016 season looks even better if you forgive his season-opening meltdown at Yankee Stadium (five earned runs in just one-third of an inning). After that start, McHugh tallied a 4.10 ERA (3.92 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, and 3.97 SIERA), 1.38 WHIP, 6.6% BB%, 22.4% K%, and 10.8% SwStr% in 32 starts spanning 184.1 innings. Gamers in deep mixers (think a minimum of 14 teams) and AL-only formats in dire need of pitching can give him the Salazar add-and-watch treatment.
Luis Castillo (CIN)
I’ll keep this short and sweet. Castillo needs to be universally owned. After yesterday’s start, the rookie flamethrower has a 3.86 ERA (4.56 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA), 1.26 WHIP and sky-high 29.5% K%. After struggling with his control in his first two starts (eight walks in 10.2 innings), he’s walked just seven hitters in his last four starts spanning 24.1 innings. He issued four free passes in one of his last four turns while surrendering just one walk in each of the other three. I wrote extensively about Castillo for RotoGraphs this week, but the short of it is that he needs to be rostered across all leagues.
Tyler Clippard (CWS)
This week’s piece comes full circle. Clippard was part of the package sent to the White Sox in return for Robertson, Kahnle, and Frazier, and he’ll serve as the club’s new closer. The 32-year-old righty has closing experience with 57 saves. He’s been knocked around for a 4.95 ERA that’s in line with his fielding independent numbers, and his 12.0% BB% this year is his highest as a reliever since he walked 13.0% of the batters he faced in his first year as a full-time RP in 2009. Saves are saves, though, and not all has been awful for Clippard. He’s struck out 26.6% of the batters he’s faced in 2017, and his 15.1% SwStr% supports his high strikeout rate. Save-needy gamers can add Clippard, but be aware his propensity for serving up homers over the last year plus (1.54 HR/9 since the beginning of 2016) could result in some blow-up appearances when also factoring in the traffic he allows on the bases via walks.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
