The pitching landscape has been rather brutal this season as I’ve previously noted multiple times. It took a huge hit this week with injuries sustained by Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw (more on both below). The competition for streaming could be fierce with new owners potentially looking for pitching help, but I’d caution gamers who own either Strasburg or Kershaw in roto leagues to avoid dipping too deep in the barrel for streaming options. Obviously if you have a stranglehold on your position in ERA and WHIP you can take more risks, but if there’s room to slip in the standings, my advice is to look ahead a few and grab streaming options with favorable matchups a day or two in advance of their favorable matchup and fill in the gaps with non-closing relievers who can help you on a strikeout-per-inning basis and in ERA and WHIP. Not everyone will have those options if they play in weekly lineup change leagues or in leagues with fairly restrictive transaction limitations, but if neither of those applies to your league and case, then that’s probably the best way to handle a tough situation.
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Notable Matchups
Diamondbacks @ Cubs (3), @ Giants (3)
A couple interesting and unfavorable notes for The Snakes. All six of their games next week are on the road. They’ve struggled away from their hitter-friendly home park ranking tied for 25th in average (.238) while rounding out their line with a .306 OBP, .394 SLG, and .156 ISO, per FanGraphs. They also project to face four lefties (Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Ty Blach, and Madison Bumgarner). Arizona struggles with lefties, hitting .228/.294/.385 against them.
Orioles vs. Royals (3), vs. Tigers (4)
Red Sox vs. Indians (3), vs. White Sox (4)
I’ve lumped the two American League East rivals together because both play all seven of their games next week in their home parks. We’ve officially reached the heart of the summer in the North East (spoken by someone who lives in Central New York), and the ball should fly in the warm conditions at these two hitter-friendly parks. A few weeks ago I linked to a tweet thread from Rudy Gamble of Razzball cautioning against bumping up park factors due to warm weather. The park factors used at a site like StatCorner that utilizes a three-year rolling average have the impact of the weather baked into their park factors. Having said that, it’s worth noting the ball does carry farther in warmer conditions, and the summer months help pick up the offensive slack for the cold, dreary spring months.
Indians @ Red Sox (3), vs. Yankees (4)
The Indians open next week by facing four lefties in a row before getting a one-game break from facing a southpaw and capping the week with another game against a lefty. In all, that’s six games against left-handed pitchers next week for The Tribe. Cleveland’s hitting a healthy .263/.344/.424 with a .161 ISO against southpaws this season.
Rockies vs. Mets (3), vs. Phillies (3)
You know the drill. The Rockies are at home for all six of their games next week, and that means a massive value bump to all of Colorado’s bats.
Tigers @ Yankees (3), @ Orioles (4)
The Tigers play all seven of their games on the road next week. The good news for Detroit’s bats is that Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards enhance dingers and run scoring. The bad news is that they’re merely an average offense on the road compared to being world-beaters at home.
Brewers vs. Cardinals (3), @ Rays (3)
Milwaukee starts next week with three games in their launching pad before getting a lineup jolt that comes with being able to utilize a designated hitter at Tropicana Field against the Rays for three games.
Mets @ Rockies (3), vs. Dodgers (3)
Half of the games the Mets play next week will be at Coors Field. The last three games will be played in their pitcher-friendly home park. The good of playing in Coors Field for three games outweighs the bad of playing three games at home.
Phillies vs. Braves (1), @ Angels (3), @ Rockies (3)
The Phillies will be busy and well traveled next week starting the week with one home game before splitting their next six games three and three at the Angels and Rockies, respectively. Three games in an American League park means three with a designated hitter. And the last three at Coors Field … well, you know the rest.
Padres vs. Twins (2), @ Pirates (3)
The Friars offense is largely unexciting, and their fantasy prospects are further hurt by playing just five games next week.
Cardinals @ Brewers (3), @ Reds (3)
The Cardinals visit two National League Central rivals next week in two of the most homer-friendly venues in the Majors.
Hitter Notes
Lucas Duda (TB)
The Rays paid a small price to acquire Duda. He projects to be the club’s designated hitter — at least against righties. Not playing the field should prove beneficial for keeping his back healthy. Being dealt to the Rays provides Duda a nudge up in fantasy value.
Rafael Devers (BOS)
Devers forced his way to The Show by hitting .311/.377/.578 with 20 doubles, three triples, 20 homers, a 9.5% BB%, and 17.6% K% in 358 plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels combined. He’s one of the top prospects in the game, and the 20-year-old third baseman wasted no time reaching the seats for the first time smacking his first Show homer in just his second game. The Red Sox have avoided putting too much pressure on him by slotting him in ninth in the lineup. The lineup slot’s a bummer for fantasy purposes, but Devers is an incredibly desirable player to roster in keeper and dynasty formats, and he’s worth rostering in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only formats. He could force his way into shallower mixed-league relevance, but he’s more of a watch option in those leagues.
Eduardo Nunez (BOS)
Nunez will provide the Red Sox some insurance at the hot corner in the event Devers is over matched. Nunez is a versatile fielder, though, and he should play fairly regularly even if he’s just a super utility player for Boston. General Manager Dave Dombrowski didn’t detail how he’ll be used with the Red Sox and noted that will need to be discussed, but he also said he thinks Nunez will play “a lot.” Hold off on cutting bait on Nunez in larger leagues. His speed is too valuable even in a semi-regular role to dump if he, in fact, plays a semi-regular role for Boston.
Colin Moran (HOU)
Moran was enjoying a breakout season at the Triple-A level and played in two games for the Astros before fracturing his cheekbone fouling a ball off his face. He’s set to undergo surgery this week, and while no timetable has been given for his recovery, he’s unlikely to help fantasy teams again this year. I chose to highlight him in the hitter’s notes because he could be a sneaky good DL stash for gamers in deep dynasty or keeper leagues. Moran altered his swing in the offseason, and he crushed the ball for Fresno slashing .308/.373/.543 with 18 homers, a 9.2% BB%, 16.3% K%, and 130 wRC+ in 338 plate appearances. There’s not a clear path to playing time in Houston’s infield, but he could be used as trade bait or push for at-bats at designated hitter with Carlos Beltran inked to just a one-year deal and Evan Gattis arbitration eligible for the final time in the offseason.
Pitcher Notes
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
There’s no timetable for Kershaw’s return, according to Kershaw himself. However, he did say that he “would like at least a few (starts) before October.” It’s a tough blow for gamers who have the stud southpaw on their roster, and it’s hard to imagine him making more than a handful of starts the rest of the way.
Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
The news for Strasburg has the potential to be better than Kershaw’s, but that’s not clear just yet. Strasburg is on the disabled list after experiencing forearm discomfort that resulted from “a right elbow nerve impingement.” He’s since thrown, and if he doesn’t experience any setbacks after ramping up the intensity in another bullpen session, he’ll miss just one start, according to the linked piece from Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post.
Trevor Cahill (KC)
Cahill was dealt from the Senior Circuit to the Junior Circuit with the Padres sending him to the Royals. The initial assumption is that he moves to the tougher league since clubs use a designated hitter in the AL and the pitcher has to hit in the NL. According to the data at FanGraphs, NL clubs are hitting .256/.325/.428 with a 8.5% BB%, 21.7% K%, and .172 ISO this year, and AL clubs are slashing .255/.324/.425 with a 8.5% BB%, 21.4% K%, and .170 ISO. I wouldn’t adjust Cahill’s value at all as a result of changing leagues.
Jaime Garcia (MIN)
Like Cahill, Garcia was dealt from an NL club — the Braves — to an AL club — the Twins. Garcia’s value does take a hit changing home parks, though. Check out the 2017 park factors provided by ESPN. Target Field is one of the better offensive venues in the game this year, and it’s been hitter-friendly using StatCorner’s three-year rolling average, too. Garcia is a mediocre deep mixed league and AL-only option or a matchup-based stream option in standard leagues.
Brad Hand (SD)/Kirby Yates (SD)
Hand received the first save opportunity in the wake of former closer Brandon Maurer being dealt to the Royals with Cahill. Hand’s a relief ace, and he should save games for San Diego as long as he remains there — which might not be much longer. The rebuilding Padres are reportedly asking for a king’s ransom in return for Hand, but all it takes is one club believing they’re a lockdown, Andrew Miller-like reliever away from a championship run in order for a deal to be struck. In the event Hand is dealt, Yates is likely the next man up — assuming he isn’t dealt as well. Yates entered the game in the eighth inning with a four-run lead against the Mets on Wednesday before coughing up a run in his lone inning of work and creating a save opportunity in the ninth for Hand. Yates has been awesome for the Friars this year, and he’s a worthy stash option for save-hungry owners until the non-waiver trade deadline passes at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 31.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
