Every single year we get excited about a player who took off late in the season. Whether he just worked his way up the depth chart or made his way onto the field because of an injury. These are the players who tend to be overvalued the following year, though looking through the players who broke out over the second half of last season, most don’t seem to be as overvalued at all.
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In today’s article, we’re going to talk about those players and touch on the upside they have, as well as the downside, trying to figure out whether or not they’re worth drafting in 2017 at their current ADP. The criteria in this study was performances from Week 10-17, so you’ll see their finish in those weeks next to their name below.
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (WAS) Week 10-17 Finish: 2, Current Positional ADP: 11
It’s logical to see Cousins down the list, as he lost his top two targets (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon) that accounted for 135 receptions and 2,046 yards in 2016. The Redskins attempted to fill the void by signing Terrelle Pryor to a one-year deal and they’ll be getting last year’s first round pick Josh Doctson back. It may take time for Cousins to develop chemistry with them, but his finish to the 2016 season wasn’t really a fluke. Here’s the list of quarterbacks who’ve thrown for more yards per attempt over the last five years than Cousins has (minimum 500 attempts): Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning. That’s it.
Joe Flacco (BAL) Week 10-17 Finish: 9, Current Positional ADP: 25
Similar to Cousins, Flacco lost a lot of his pass catchers from last season. When you look at the full picture of players he’s lost, it amounts to 338 targets, 232 receptions, 2,207 yards, and 10 touchdowns. That’s really tough to overcome, though his replacements may be better than most of the targets he had in 2016. The loss of Steve Smith and Kyle Juszcyk hurt the most, but the additions of Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead are extremely solid. The No. 9 finish over the final eight games is impressive, but after nine NFL seasons, we likely know who Flacco is.
Running Backs
Bilal Powell (NYJ) Week 10-17 Finish: 9, Current Positional ADP: 23
The hype for Powell has been building as the offseason has gone on, and for good reason. The Jets decided to hang on to the soon-to-be 32-year-old Matt Forte, but at this point in their careers, Powell is a better fit for the offense. Forte was used out of the backfield as the primary 1-2 down back last year, having the edge 218 to 94 carries, while Powell saw 74 targets compared to 43 for Forte. The odd part of this is that Forte has never been a great 1-2 down back, but rather average, totaling 4.18 yards per carry in his career, including just 3.91 yards per carry over the last three years. Powell is a better runner and the Jets clearly see him as a better receiver, so his second half may not have been a fluke.
Jerick McKinnon (MIN) Week 10-17 Finish: 18, Current Positional ADP: Undrafted
Is the dream over for McKinnon? Most didn’t even realize that he finished the season so well, especially in PPR where he was the No. 10 running back over the final eight weeks. Despite that, the Vikings have shown signs that they’re moving on with the signing of Latavius Murray and the drafting of Dalvin Cook. The best scenario is that McKinnon gets traded to a team with a halfway decent offensive line. At this point in time, he isn’t worth drafting.
Mark Ingram (NO) Week 10-17 Finish: 8, Current Positional ADP: 20
Tim Hightower (NO) Week 10-17 Finish: 20, Current Positional ADP: Undrafted
This here has nothing to do with Hightower, but everything to do with Ingram and Adrian Peterson. Many are trying to decipher between the two and which one will lead the team in backfield touches. This proves that both can be fantasy relevant in the Saints high-powered offense. Think about that for a second – Peterson can be a low-end RB2 while Ingram is a low-end RB1. I’m not saying that’s the way/order it’s going to work out, but there’s plenty of work for them both to be taken as top-30 options. Ingram is the one who’s been in the offense and is the better pass catcher, so I’m comfortable betting on him as a low-end RB2 this season, making his ADP extremely reasonable.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (KC) Week 10-17 Finish: 8, Current Positional ADP: 24
This is the one everyone wants to know, but truth be told, we don’t know how Hill will handle a bigger role on offense. On one side, he’s a dynamic playmaker and has a coach in Andy Reid who knows how to best utilize him. On the other hand, he’s just 5-10 and 185 pounds (and I think that’s a generous measurement). He ran just 260 routes last year, but was targeted on 81 of them, which amounts to 31.2 percent. By comparison, Julio Jones was targeted on just 27.7 percent of his routes. So despite Hill getting more snaps in the offense, he isn’t going to see that same ratio in 2017. He’s also due for some touchdown regression. Still, Hill has shown the ability to make things happen with the ball in his hands and his ADP of 24th at the wide receiver position isn’t crazy, making him worth the risk if you want a boom or bust type player.
Cameron Meredith (CHI) Week 10-17 Finish: 11, Current Positional ADP: 44
Meredith is one who didn’t just come on over the final eight weeks, but most would be shocked to know that he ranked this high. The Bears have continually committed to Kevin White who’s slated to return from almost a two-year absence, and they also went in free agency to add Kendall Wright, Victor Cruz, and Markus Wheaton. While the Wright signing was a good one, it’s questionable as to how the Bears feel about Meredith, because he performed his best out of the slot, which is where Wright is projected to play. If White turns into the player that the Bears thought he’d be, Meredith won’t be fantasy relevant, but the fact that White was considered raw coming out of college, it’s unlikely he’ll make much of an impact in his first full season. Meredith is well worth the risk at his current ADP, but you really want to pay attention to how the Bears are using him in the preseason.
Adam Thielen (MIN) Week 10-17 Finish: 12, Current Positional ADP: 48
This is one of the better question marks of the offseason, as Thielen truly impressed towards the end of last season. He started the season playing anywhere from just 32 snaps to 39 snaps, until Stefon Diggs was forced to miss Week 5 and Thielen stepped into a full-time role. From Week 5 through the end of the season, Thielen was the No. 15 wide receiver in fantasy football. Sure, his 202-yard, two touchdown performance in Week 16 helped him get there, but he was quite solid throughout the year. Cordarrelle Patterson is off to the Raiders, clearing 70 targets in the offense. While Laquon Treadwell is expected to start in three-wide sets, Thielen’s role is safe. He should see somewhere in the range of 90-100 targets, making him a solid late-round pick, though his upside is somewhat capped being the No. 2 behind Diggs in an offense led by Sam Bradford.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (PHI) Week 10-17 Finish: 1, Current Positional ADP: 11
I had to do a double-take when I saw that Ertz was the No. 1 tight end over this range considering how great Travis Kelce was over the second-half of the season. Seriously, I refreshed the page just to ensure. Ertz finished with 80.9 standard fantasy points, while Kelce was at 76.5 points. Looking closer, it’s easy to see where they came from. Ertz accumulated 22 receptions, 218 yards, and three touchdowns in just two games. The common denominator in those games? Jordan Matthews missed both of them. Knowing that and the fact that they added both Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to their receiving corps this season, Ertz’ ADP is arguably even higher than it should be. Without those two games, his finishing line would have been: 12 games, 56 receptions for 598 yards and one touchdown.
Charles Clay (BUF) Week 10-17 Finish: 8, Current Positional ADP: Undrafted
I’m a sucker for personal feel-good stories and Clay had one last year. He had a child born right before his Week 14 game and in that game, he totaled three catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. The following week he caught seven passes for 72 yards and a touchdown, leading me to pick him up as insurance for Tyler Eifert, who appeared to be out for Week 16 (he did miss that game). In a pinch, I started Clay and he posted the seventh-best fantasy performance out of a tight end last season with eight catches for 85 yards and two touchdowns. Those were his last three games with Tyrod Taylor, which may be a sign of things to come, as the Bills didn’t bring in anyone else to compete with him. You may not need to draft him, but if you’re looking for someone who you should have a quick trigger finger on at the tight end position, it’s Clay.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
