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How to Handle Colorado Sluggers (Fantasy Baseball)

How to Handle Colorado Sluggers (Fantasy Baseball)

Coming into this season there was so much fantasy potential in this Colorado lineup. Top-tier fantasy studs like Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon have produced as expected, but the rest of the lineup has been tumultuous. Some have been better than expected. Others not so much. The question is, how should you handle them the rest of the season?

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Carlos Gonzalez (OF – COL)

Wow. What in the world has happened to Carlos Gonzalez? His current .648 OPS is the lowest since his 302 at-bat rookie season with Oakland in 2008. He’s only 31, so it’s hard to imagine that he’s started declining at this point in his career.

It was just a few years ago that he was considered one of the top fantasy outfielders. However, that was back when he was a threat on the base paths. He stole over 20 bags each year from 2010 to 2013 but has only stolen seven bases since the start of the 2014 season. Luckily for fantasy owners, the power has remained, and the average has stayed respectable with the exception of his injury-plagued 2014 season.

For some reason, all the wheels have fallen off this season. His drop in average can be explained by a sharp decline in his BABIP. Gonzalez’s current .261 BABIP is 85 points below last season and 71 points below his career .332 mark. His 8.2% drop in hard contact rate appears to be the culprit behind that BABIP drop.

Hitters that are this talented usually have a way of figuring these things out. Gonzalez is a great buy-low candidate, especially if you need some power in your outfield. Over his career, he’s hit a home run for every 18.3 at-bats in the second half of the season. Another 15+ home runs should be expected.

Ian Desmond (OF/1B – COL)

From 2012 to 2014, Ian Desmond was considered one of the top five fantasy shortstops after posting three straight 20-20 seasons. However, he saw his average drop each season from .292 to .280 to .255 in 2014. That trend continued in 2015, with his average dropping to a career low .233. He still had 19 home runs and 13 steals, but those numbers aren’t as useful with a paltry .233 average.

During his lone season in the lone star state, Desmond returned to the 20-20 club and hit a much better .285. His fantasy value rose considerably when he signed with Colorado this off-season. If he could be a 20-20 guy in Washington and Texas what could he do in the thin Denver air? Is 30-30 a possibility?

Expectations were set too high for Desmond this season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be valuable the rest of the way. In 219 at-bats this season, Desmond has hit .283 with five home runs and nine steals. That might not be what most people expected, but it’s still commendable.

If the Desmond owner in your league is willing to trade him at a discount, now is the time to pounce. With the exception of last year, Desmond has always been a slightly better hitter in the second half of the season. The speed is valuable by itself and the power output should increase as the temperature continues to rise.

David Dahl (OF – COL)

There’s a lot to like about 23-year-old outfielder David Dahl. He possesses a tantalizing blend of power and speed and gets to call Coors Field his home ballpark. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to play and showcase it this year. A rib injury during Spring Training has caused him to miss every game so far, which has been disheartening for those that drafted him expecting a breakout season.

His 2016 debut went very smoothly. In 222 at-bats, Dahl hit .315 with seven home runs and five steals. That was enough to put him high on most breakouts lists entering this season. However, that darn rib injury has put a long pause on his 2017 debut.

After numerous setbacks, Dahl is finally making progress toward returning to the Colorado lineup. He hit off a tee this week and should progress to facing live pitching within a week or two. All things considered, Dahl is still at least a month away from his 2017 debut. Whenever he does return, there will be playing time concerns with how well Mark Reynolds has hit this year.

In the long run, Dahl’s immense potential will win out. This is a player that can be just as good as Charlie Blackmon in short order. Keep a close eye on his progress toward a return, as Dahl could be a major impact fantasy player down the stretch.

Trevor Story (SS – COL)

For those that took a risk on Trevor Story before last season, you were greatly rewarded. For about two-thirds of a season that is. The 2016 season started with Colorado’s rookie shortstop going on an absolute tear hitting 10 long balls in April. The rest of the season wasn’t as magical, but Story still finished with 27 home runs in just 372 at-bats.

A 40 home run pace from a shortstop always gets fantasy owners hyped up. However, the problem with Story is that he strikes out way too frequently to be relied upon as a top-tier fantasy shortstop. His strikeout rate has risen from a miserable 31.3% last year to an even worse 34.4% this year. He hasn’t been unlucky either as his .311 BABIP is relatively normal for a player of his caliber. Story is much more likely to end up closer to Danny Espinosa in value than Carlos Correa or Corey Seager. Those strikeouts are a killer.

Mark Reynolds (1B – COL)

After injuries to Desmond and Dahl in Spring Training, Mark Reynolds seized the opportunity for additional playing time and has been a strong producer all season. We all know the story on Reynolds. He has plus power but fans enough times to cool half of Colorado. This year hasn’t been any different, he’s just had more at-bats than usual.

Colorado already has a cluster of players vying for playing time in the outfield and at first base. The eventual return of Dahl will only create more of a playing time logjam. Someone is going to draw the short stick and my bets are on Reynolds, especially with his struggles against lefties. In 78 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, he’s hitting only .179 with 30 strikeouts. Reynolds seems likely to lose the most at-bats out of the bunch. Sell high while you can.

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Eric Cross is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricCross04.

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