What’s that noise? Well, it’s none other than the silence of Jimmy Graham’s critics after the tight end was able to recover from a dreadful torn patellar tendon in 2015.
After being written off in the fantasy community, Graham managed to rebound in 2016 to the tune of 65 receptions for 923 yards receiving and six touchdowns en route to a TE4 finish in PPR formats. It represented his second top-four placement in fantasy football over the past three years, as he placed as the TE2 overall in 2014 as well.
There are those that will continue to doubt Graham’s future in the NFL at 30 years old, but the Miami product has become more efficient with age after his transition from New Orleans to Seattle. In fact, he averaged a career-high 14.2 yards per catch last season.
Sure, his efficiency is a byproduct of less volume. At the end of a season, do the number of targets Graham receives matter if he continues to produce at an elite level? The short answer is no.
In this article, I will make a case for the seven-year tight end being overlooked at his current ADP of 64.7 (TE5) in redraft leagues. Even more, I will attempt to convince those that question the tight end’s value that he is a must-own asset for 2017 and beyond in dynasty formats.
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“Must-Have” Rationale
A common misconception surrounding Graham is that he is susceptible or prone to injury. Outside of his 2015 campaign which was shortened due to a torn patellar tendon, Graham has missed a total of two regular season contests over the span of six NFL seasons.
A display of such durability should elevate the trust of fantasy owners towards Graham, but he somehow remains overlooked in favor of other tight ends. In the four career seasons in which Graham has participated in a 16-game NFL schedule, he has scored no fewer than six receiving touchdowns. Simply put, Graham offers a safe floor of production at an inexpensive asking price for owners that elect to fade the tight end position in favor of Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce early in drafts.
Career Production
Since entering the NFL in 2010 as a third-round selection, Graham has manufactured two 1,000-yard receiving seasons and three double-digit touchdown campaigns. Over the past seven years, he has produced as one of the most dynamic playmakers in fantasy football with two TE1 overall seasons (2012 and 2013) and two TE2 finishes (2011 and 2014).
After becoming a member of the Seattle Seahawks, Graham has failed to eclipse 100 targets in a season. He surpassed that threshold and saw no fewer than 124 targets in a campaign from 2011-2014 with the New Orleans Saints. Despite the decrease in volume, Graham has managed to perform at an efficient level with a 13.4 average yard per catch total across his past two campaigns.
Across the span on his entire career, Graham has averaged at least 10.5 yards per reception a season. With such a clear track record of success at the NFL level, fantasy owners should have little doubt in Graham delivering results on a weekly basis moving forward barring an unforeseen injury.
2017 Outlook
Outside of Doug Baldwin, Graham figures to remain entrenched as a primary weapon for Russell Wilson in Seattle’s aerial attack. In his first two seasons with the Seahawks, Graham has seen target totals of 73 (2015) and 95 (2016). Over that same span, he has posted catch rates of 66 percent and 68 percent, respectively.
Graham’s totals in that regard were on par or even better than his prime seasons in New Orleans when he delivered catch rates of 66 percent (2011), 63 percent (2012), 60 percent (2013), and 69 percent (2014). A fluctuation in volume is the primary reason behind his variance in efficiency, but Graham has proven to be a reliable receiving tight end over the course of his entire career to this point.
Assuming that he can surpass 100 targets for the first time with Seattle in 2017, Graham could catapult himself back into the conversation of a top-three finish at his skill position in fantasy circles. To accomplish such a feat, fantasy owners will need the tight end to earn consistent red zone work, as he seen target totals of eight (2015) and 17 (2016) in that department over the past two years.
Last season, that level of red zone targets placed Graham behind only Kyle Rudolph (24) and Antonio Gates (18) at the tight end position. A similar trend figures to bode well for Graham’s immediate outlook as he attempts to cement himself as a must-have asset for 2017.
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Cory Evans is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Cory, check out his archive and follow him @CoryEvansNFL.
