When I heard the news about today’s trade I celebrated. Straight to the store for donuts and chocolate milk. No, I’m not a Cubs fan–I’m a Cardinals fan. I get it, acquiring Jose Quintana is an upgrade for their suddenly lackluster staff and a clearly highly sought after commodity, but have mercy! This, friends, was highway robbery–and the third such case in five months from White Sox GM, Rick Hahn. Before we get into the details, let’s take a quick look at the deal:

Cubs get: Jose Quintana
White Sox get: Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease and two likely career minor leaguers

It has been said that prospects, even elite ones fail to meet expectations quite often so it always makes sense to get a sure piece if you are contending team at the minimal expense of unpredictable prospects. It isn’t difficult to find a continually growing list of said failed prospects: Jorge Soler, Jurickson Profar, Shelby Miller, Zack Wheeler, Tyler Skaggs, Danny Hultzen, Jesus Montero, Dominic Brown and Dustin Ackley all ring a bell just from the past six seasons. With that being said, there are just as many players like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Miguel Sano, Francisco Lindor and on and on that more than balance out the equation. So sure, there is a chance, perhaps 1 in 8 that a top prospect like Jimenez will bust and produce 0 or negative WAR, but there is a better chance he will become a cheap commodity who’s WAR in controlled years triples what a mediocre starting pitcher like Quintana will ever provide.

Yes, Quintana is a mediocre pitcher

He is currently the #77 SP in standard scoring fantasy leagues this season which is behind the likes of Matt Andriese, J.C. Ramirez, Jhoulys Chacin, Scott Feldman, Jose Urena and…I’ll just stop there. It is an extensive list of nobody’s who are all available in virtually every league. You can say it is a fluke. I say the underlying statistics have been pointing to this type of negative regression for years and that his underlying metrics are finally accurately represented by his mainstream stats like ERA and Wins.

There is a stat called xFIP which is often used as the all-encompassing metric for a pitcher’s performance. Since Quintana entered the league in 2012, he is 57th in xFIP among pitchers with at least 400 innings in that time. There are some embarrassing names ahead of him on the list. This season, his xFIP is worse than Scott Feldman and Patrick Corbin among many other back-end starters. Last season, even with his shiny mainstream stats, his xFIP was again outside the top 30 behind Zach Davies, Jeremy Hellickson, and again, some unflattering company.

If the Cubs are looking to save their bullpen, then they acquired just the pitcher. If they are looking to climb back into the playoff race and defend their title, they didn’t make up much ground. When you consider what they dealt is when it really starts to get ugly.

Eloy Jimenez could be historically good

After shredding A-ball last season as one of the younger players in the league (.329/.369/.532), Jimenez was promoted to the Carolina League and is back at it again. It is no mystery why you’d dream on a 6’4″ 205 pound 20-year-old who is putting up unworldly numbers against much older competition. Add in the fact that he is still considered raw and we might be talking about the consensus #1 overall prospect next spring at the rate he is progressing.

“I’ve only heard the sound that comes off his bat one other time in my life. That was when Bryce Harper was in the minors.”

“He is a physical animal that evokes comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton.”

“He might be a monster, maybe better than Yoan Moncada.”

“Rarely does a teenager come along and you say ‘Yep, that is a surefire middle of the order stud for years to come.”

“He has legitimate plus-plus power. I’ve said that about four guys in all my years of scouting. The first three hit 40+ homers at least once in an MLB season. The other is named Joey Gallo.”

You don’t give away a phenom like that for a playoff #3 pitcher.

Dylan Cease isn’t a slouch either

Remember when Quintana was 21 years old, pumping in 100 MPH heaters with plenty of movement and spinning curveballs compared to Dwight Gooden’s while striking out 13 hitters per 9 innings with command and poise? Yeah, I don’t either. That isn’t to say Quintana has been useless or that Cease will definitely become a star or even a big leaguer, but it is remarkable that the White Sox were able to acquire a second piece in this trade who has a good chance at being better, and perhaps far better than Quintana.

The White Sox are setting themselves up for multiple title runs

I just posted my mid-season top 400 worldwide prospects ($) last week, which is continually updating. Shohei Otani is my #1, but right after him are Yoan Moncada and Jimenez. The White Sox also recently acquired #14 and #15, Michael Kopech and Luis Robert. As if that weren’t enough, starting pitchers, Lucas Giolito, Cease, Alec Hansen and Reynaldo Lopez are all within the top 70 and Rick Hahn just landed the top class from the 2017 MLB Draft. Remember when everyone said the Cubs were on the verge of moving from being irrelevant to a potential dynasty? Well, they never possessed as much minor league talent as the budding White Sox currently own, and don’t make the mistake of believing they are done wheeling and dealing.

Thanks for reading! If you haven’t already, please take a minute to check out the FantasyPros Baseball Podcast (below) that I host with experts from all around the industry.

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS