Notable Batted Ball Profiles: First Half Review

This is the third edition of Notable Batted Ball Profiles, a monthly article where we — you guessed it — dig into the batted ball profiles of various players, and see what their fantasy value looks like moving forward. You can learn a lot about a player if you study things like how often they’re making hard contact, whether they’re hitting fly balls or ground balls, and if they’re getting lucky with home runs.

This time around, let’s take a look at some of the biggest surprises in the first half, whether good or bad, and what we can expect following the All-Star break.

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What, Me Worry?

Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, and Miguel Cabrera

With high expectations entering the season, this trio sits among the most disappointing performances of 2017 — so far. Machado and Donaldson were surefire first-rounders in mixed leagues, while Cabrera was a late-first, early-second round pick. But what all three share in common is they make hard contact in bundles, suggesting that we should expect things to turn around in the second half.

You wouldn’t expect it from his .230 batting average, but if the season ended today, Machado would have his highest hard-hit rate of his career (40.2%). He’s displayed his typical home run prowess (18), and although his strikeouts are up from last year, it’s certainly nothing to worry about (19.7%). So, what gives? The BABIP gods have not been kind to Machado, who has been plagued by a horrendous .239 mark. There is nowhere to go but up, and that includes his modest .312 wOBA, which should edge closer to his .355 xwOBA, Statcast’s new predictive metric of a player’s true skill. Have patience — a summer hot streak could be coming.

In Donaldson’s case, he can blame his low counting stat totals on injury, missing around six weeks with a strained calf, but he too has a promising 38.8% hard-hit rate. Still, to this point, his .261 batting average is his lowest since 2014, and his 23.3% strikeout rate is a far cry from last year’s 17.0%. But he’s walking at a high rate, and while not up to his usual standards, most would happily take his .868 OPS and .372 wOBA. Most of his strikeout woes came in April, so there’s no reason to think Donaldson can’t finish this season with a flourish.

A casual observer may look at Cabrera’s 11 home runs and assume age is finally kicking in, but he’s second in hard-hit rate among qualified hitters (49.5%), behind only his teammate, Nick Castellanos. That’s right, Cabrera even edges out that guy Aaron Judge. Like Machado and Donaldson, he’s seen an uptick in strikeout rate (20.4%), but hardly enough to keep his average at .264. In fact, a monster second half could be in the cards, as his .418 xwOBA in among the highest in the league. Father Time isn’t knocking on that door just yet.

Fly Away Home (Run)

Logan Morrison, Scott Schebler, and Yonder Alonso

On the other hand, this trio is among the biggest surprises this season, and is the perfect example of the league-wide “fly ball revolution” and its potential benefits. We may only be at the midway point, but Morrison (24 homers), Schebler (22), and Alonso (20) have all already reached career-highs in home runs, and there’s no reason to think their long ball hitting ways can’t continue.

Morrison was none too pleased about not getting invited to the Home Run Derby, and while he likely regrets he said anything, he certainly would have been worthy of the honor. He’s tied with noted slugger Khris Davis for seventh in home runs, and it’s his first time surpassing 20 since 2011, when he hit 23. Morrison has improved his power by dropping his ground-ball rate nearly 10 percentage points from last season (34.3%), which when combined with a 42.6% hard-hit rate, has resulted in an impressive .306 ISO. While it’s fair to be skeptical of this sort of late-career breakout at age 29, with a .387 xwOBA and strong plate discipline, it’s looking less flukey every day, he should continue to be a steal in fantasy leagues.

Schebler was another afterthought entering the season, and many have been slow to notice the 26-year-old finally translating his minor league power to the highest level. In 2016, he showed modest pop with nine long balls in 282 plate appearances, but a 52.6% ground-ball rate limited his home run ceiling. He’s chopped that rate down to 44.5% this season, and while that’s not as low as Morrison or Alonso, he’s well on his way to tripling last year’s home run total. A 40.6% hard-hit rate and .375 xwOBA give further credence that the breakout is real, and he remains available in nearly 40% of ESPN leagues.

Much has been written about Alonso’s surprising transformation throughout the year, and I touched on him just last week, but I would be remiss to not give him another mention. He checks all the batted ball profile boxes, turning a 48.7% fly-ball rate and 35.4% hard-hit rate into more home runs in 2017 than his last three seasons combined. At age 30, it’s unbelievable to think of Alonso as a bonafide slugger, but here he is with a .385 xwOBA. It’s worth noting he slowed down a bit in June, but as long as he’s hitting this many fly balls, the home runs will continue to add up.

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Nick Castellanos

Indeed, Castellanos may very well be a hidden dragon. As mentioned earlier, he leads all qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (49.6%), and yet with just 10 home runs and a .248/.313/.433 batting line, it sure doesn’t feel that way. He’s far from a perfect hitter, as shown by an elevated 25.1% strikeout rate, but the stark contrast between his .318 wOBA and .363 xwOBA suggest better days are ahead. In fact, some of that positive regression may already be underway, with Castellanos sporting a robust 53.8% hard-hit rate and .311/.363/.566 line since the start of June. Given the punchouts, you probably shouldn’t expect his batting average to budge too much, but he’s making absurd amounts of hard contact and has just a 41.1% ground-ball rate. This is one player to keep an eye on in the second half. He remains available in over half of ESPN fantasy leagues.