The top half of the first round is as clear-cut as ever in 2017. There are three elite running backs (David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott) expected to go first, second, and third (barring an Elliott suspension), followed by three elite receivers (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham Jr.) thought to be the fourth, fifth, and sixth options off the board. Your mileage may vary concerning how the players in each group are ranked, but the vast majority of traditional snake drafts will see three RBs followed by three WRs constituting the top six picks.
If you’ve got a top-six pick, then you won’t need to churn your brain all that much in the first round. Pick No. 3 might present a small dilemma in deciding between an elite receiver and a potentially suspended Ezekiel Elliott, but it remains a no-lose situation. For the duration of these selections, the player pool has effectively been reduced to a size of six.
None of this is to say that fantasy players picking seventh or later are in bad shape. In fact, the remaining options are in some ways equally enticing.
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If any player can make the case for cracking into the aforementioned group of elites, it’s McCoy. Mike Gillislee signed a deal in the offseason with divisional rival New England, as is becoming a tradition in the AFC East, and with him he takes over 500 yards and nine total touchdowns of production. McCoy had no problems finding the end zone himself last year, hitting pay dirt 14 times in 2016. If he can get his hands on just half of Gillislee’s numbers, he’s a serious threat to be the best back in the league. Throw in Elliott’s insistence on making headlines for all the wrong reasons, and it’s no wonder so many are eager to toss McCoy into that seemingly immovable top six.
The Bills have been top two in rushing attempts per game in each of the last two years, and McCoy is now in that situation all by his lonesome. If there’s any concern it’s with his slightly overblown injury history. McCoy rarely plays all 16 games, but he’s also never played in fewer than 12. One might argue, however, that Gillislee helped more than he hurt, and that the burden he shouldered is what allowed McCoy to be so effective in the first place. Given this combination of situation and talent, though, getting Shady with the seventh selection or later is a steal.
Evans’ career has been extremely volatile in some respects, but impressively consistent in others. He’s broken the 1,000-yard mark in each of his three years in the league, and his total receptions and receiving yards have increased with each passing season. His second year scared many fantasy players away when he managed to follow his 12-TD rookie year with a disastrous three-score sophomore season. 2016 saw Evans return to form, where he once again found the end zone 12 times.
The simplest explanation is that 2015 was QB Jameis Winston’s rookie year and Evans suffered as a result. The problem with this line of thinking is that Winston didn’t improve all that much from his first year to his second. As a former first-overall draft pick, Winston’s lack of advancement in his second season was contrary to many expectations, though he didn’t receive a whole lot of help. Tampa’s ground game pulled a complete 180 when Doug Martin succeeded his 1,400-yard rushing performance in 2015 with a 400-yard disaster in 2016, laden with injury and apparent drug abuse. Even without the benefit of a competent run game, Evans was able to feast, and he’ll need to be just as independent this year as the Bucs have shown little interest in improving their run game.
Most concerning in regards to Evans is the acquired talent that will be competing with him for targets. Last year, Evans was a stud surrounded by no-names. Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries performed admirably as second and third fiddle, but they were no-names none the less. This past offseason, The Bucs signed DeSean Jackson in free agency and drafted elite prospect O.J. Howard at tight end. Jackson is a stud when healthy, and if Howard pans out, Mike Evans might need to kiss a few of those targets goodbye.
If Green could stay healthy, there’s a good chance he could be the best receiver in fantasy. As his 2016 statistics stand, Green averaged 96.4 yards per game, good for second place on the season behind Julio Jones. However, this number incorporates his 10th game of the season, in which he went down early in the first quarter before registering a catch. If you take this game out of the equation, Green’s yards per game comes out to just over 107, which would easily be the best in the league. His four touchdowns, even in just nine games, is disconcertingly low, but Julio only finished the season with six, and nobody is afraid to draft him in the top five.
Like with the Buccaneers and Mike Evans, the Bengals took a pass-catcher in the first round that could impact Green’s production. Ninth-overall pick John Ross may not be the same level of threat to Green that O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson are to Evans, though, especially considering that his background is riddled with serious injuries. His health is so concerning that some teams allegedly wouldn’t draft him at all. The only other player that could take looks away from Green is hardly the picture of health. Tyler Eifert only played in half of the games in a 2016 season that was bookended with injuries. It’s a big “if,” but again, if Green can stay relatively healthy, look for him to compete for the receiving title.
Gordon infamously went his entire rookie year without scoring a touchdown despite playing in 14 games. His 2016 was spent making up for lost time, where he scored 12 times in 13 games and didn’t go a game without scoring until Week 6. Much of his success could be attributed to the loss of Danny Woodhead early in the season, making Gordon very much a product of his situation. Luckily for him, his situation will be nearly identical in 2017. Woodhead signed with the Ravens, and the only additions made at the position are players who will be hanging around at the bottom of the depth chart.
Last year’s Chargers were decimated by injury (as seems to often be the case), but Gordon performed regardless. The return of, well, everyone should only help Gordon maintain production. Gordon himself has missed a few games in both of his seasons in the league but compared to his teammates he might as well be indestructible. The only real concern is his lack of track record. For all we know, last year was the outlier, and 2015 was the standard. Most players don’t peak during their second year in the league, though, and betting on Gordon to be at least as good as he was in 2016 is a safe wager.
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Shane McCormack is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneMcCormack_.
