One of the first methods I use when trying to find value as draft season approaches is to identify quality players that burned owners the previous year whether due to injury, team fit, or contractual motivation. In this article, I’ll take a closer look at the impact a healthy Rob Gronkowski (TE – NE): ADP #19 TE #1 can have on your roster, especially when compared to the other options available to start in the TE spot. Value based drafting has been attacked by various analysts in recent years, but there’s still some truth to the methodology or we would all be drafting Aaron Rodgers with the first pick of every draft. We’ll dive deeper into the advantage Gronk gave you in 2014 and 2015 as well as the pace he was on when healthy in 2016 and apply that to an “upside” case for 2017.
As a note, I’ll be using a data set that includes all TEs that accumulated greater than 80 fantasy points and three touchdowns in a single year during any of the 2014, 2015, and 2016 seasons. Gronk was one of nine players to do that despite truly playing in only four games in 2016. All fantasy point total references assume a half point per reception.
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Before we can get into an upside case for Gronk this year, let’s address the elephant in the room, injury history. Sure, 2016 was a brutal year if you used an early pick on Gronk only to see him truly healthy for a grand total of four games. If we reach back a bit further, we can also reference 2013 in which Gronk only contributed in six games due to injury. The fact of the matter, though, is that he’s played in 88 games over the course of his seven-year career, which amounts to approximately 12.5 games per year. In comparison, almost all detailed analysis of the RB position shows you can expect RBs to play in 13.1-13.7 games per year regardless of injury history, and we don’t think twice about drafting Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott early in drafts.
In 2014, Gronk accumulated 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns over the course of 15 games. A second tier of TEs included Jimmy Graham, Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen, and Antonio Gates. All of those fell more than two fantasy points per game less than Gronk in 2014 and the gap between the second tier and everyone else was another three points per game. So, in a league with 12 teams, you would’ve had a greater then five-point advantage at the TE position against seven teams in your league. Yet again in 2015, Gronk eclipsed 1,100 yards and scored 11 touchdowns in 15 games. A similar story emerged with Gronk outpacing a small group of tier-two TEs and severely outpacing everyone in the TE position outside of that group.
I’ll detail the assumptions of the “upside” case that’s visualized below. From 2014 to 2016, Gronk’s yards per reception has steadily increased from 13.7 to 16.3 to 21.6. This is no fluke as his primary role is to exploit mismatches in the middle-to-deep areas of the center of the field where it’s difficult to manage his coverages with linebackers and safeties while also covering the Patriot’s short passing schemes. In Weeks 5-to-8 of 2016, Gronk had 21 receptions for 473 yards and three touchdowns. The upside data point below represents this pace applied to Gronk’s average availability of 12.5 games per year. I suspect he’ll fall between that and FantasyPros current projection which is also shown.
Based on this upside case, there’s a legitimate possibility that Gronk can provide you up to 3.75 points per game more than the second-tier TEs (Kelce, Reed, and Olsen) and greater than five points per game over third- and fourth-tier TEs. The only other player that stands out close to this degree against his peers in Midsummer projections is Aaron Rodgers. At both the WR and RB positions, you can argue there are three top-tier players and potentially even more WRs based on your format.
So, how do you use this information? The bottom line is that I don’t have Gronk above the consensus top six players on everyone’s boards, but I do have him planted just after that at the seventh spot, well above ADP #19 overall. You should ask yourself whether you truly believe Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Dez Bryant, and Jordan Howard offer your roster a better chance to win championships than Rob Gronkowski. Based on my draft board, the answer is no. Gronk is one of the few players that can single-handedly carry you into the fantasy playoffs and further if he returns to just his average availability. Even if you’re not convinced to look at Gronk late in the first round, I hope you’ll consider him early in the second over some of the other risky options.
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David McDougald is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMcDou.
