Bobby Sylvester’s Top 400 Second-Half Fantasy Baseball Rankings

by Bobby Sylvester | @bobbyfantasypro | Featured Writer
Jul 14, 2017

Where does Manny Machado rank for the second half?

Every month, I’m posting my updated top 400 rest of the season rankings. You can think of it as a waiver wire tool or a trade guide, use it however you’d like. Today, I’ll respond to some of the more controversial rankings preemptively, but if you have any further questions or disagreements, don’t hesitate to let me know on twitter @bobbyfantasypro.

Manny Machado is talented, but how can you keep him in your top 15?

There is an all encompassing stat called weighted on-base average, or wOBA. With advanced metrics like statcast, we can now use the data to show what a players wOBA should be so we can seperate the luck from the skill. Machado currently has a .319 wOBA, his xwOBA is a whopping .355. Nobody in baseball, not Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton has hit the ball over 102 MPH more times than Machado this season. He has somehow managed to get out 57% of the time he hit the ball that hard which is unheard of. Machado is every bit as good as he was when he was dominating as a 20 to 23-year-old, perhaps even better, but the mainstream stats just haven’t displayed that. Yet.

Sure, Alex Avila has been hot, but a top 4 catcher, really?

I’m going to give you four superstars to compare. The rankings listed below are of all 246 players with at least 200 plate appearances this season:

Superstar Hard-Hit% HH% Rank Line Drive% LD% Rank Avg Exit Velo xVelo Rank BB% BB% Rank K%
Player A 46.0% #9 18.8% #165 90.1 #44 11.3% #55 29.1%
Player B 46.4% #8 20.4% #116 93.9 #2 12.8% #35 34.8%
Player C 49.0% #4 24.5% #27 96.2 #1 16.7% #4 29.8%
Player D 55.7% #1 29.2% #1 92.9 #4 17.2% #3 29.5%

 
Player A is Cody Bellinger
Player B is Miguel Sano
Player C is Aaron Judge
Player D is Alex Avila (yeah, the clear best of the bunch)

They all have high k-rates, high BB-rates and all mash baseballs so Avila fits perfectly in with this group. Do I expect it to keep up? Absolutely not, but even with a big step back, his stats should STILL improve from the already terrific first half numbers we saw.

We don’t know how Carlos Rodon will come back, why is he ranked so high?

Rodon has always had injury problems, which is part of the reason he went from being the clear-cut #1 overall pick in the 2014 MLB draft down to #3. He has ace stuff with a wipeout slider and we finally saw him piecing it together in the second half last season as a 23-year-old. Throughout the minors, he was a top 20 prospect and he always struck out 11.7 per 9 IP or more, so there is no reason to think his sudden dominance last year was a fluke. Granted, he is having some command issues, as would be expected from a long recovery, but his stuff looks sharp and should continue to improve over the reaminder of the season.

Luke Weaver doesn’t even have a job but somehow appears in your top 250?

Two days ago, Weaver was sent back down to the minors. He was looking strong out of the bullpen, but the starting rotation is his future, and perhaps sooner than later. Last season as a 22-year-old, he struck out 11.1 batters per 9 innings in the Bigs. This is a prospect with a sparkling 1.81 ERA and 1.05 WHIP during his 253 minor leagues innings pitched. He is more polished than any other prospect and ready to dominate from the get-go as soon as a rotation spot opens up, which is bound to happen eventually.

Who is this Rhys Hoskins that you’d rather own than guys like Pujols and Schwarber?

The Phillies are loaded at Triple-A this season with Hoskins, Dylan Cozens, Jorge Alfaro, J.P. Crawford and Nick Williams (who was just called up). Hoskins could be next and is the best bet of the group to hit well in the Majors this season. He is a big first baseman who swatted 38 homers last season and is well on his way to doing the same this year to go along with his .965 OPS. He should be batting in the middle of the Phillies order within a couple of weeks, and I’d certainly rather own him than a career .210 hitter like Schwarber who has no position and isn’t guarunteed playing time.

Without further ado, here is the full list. Enjoy!

What's your take? Leave a comment

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1Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
2Le'Veon Bell (PIT)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4David Johnson (ARI)RB
5Antonio Brown (PIT)WR
6DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
7Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
8Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
9Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)WR
10Kareem Hunt (KC)RB
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11Julio Jones (ATL)WR
12Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
13Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
14Michael Thomas (NO)WR
15Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
16Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
17A.J. Green (CIN)WR
18Davante Adams (GB)WR
19Devonta Freeman (ATL)RB
20Mike Evans (TB)WR
21LeSean McCoy (BUF)RB
22Jordan Howard (CHI)RB
23Rob Gronkowski (NE)TE
24Doug Baldwin (SEA)WR
25Jerick McKinnon (SF)RB
26Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
27Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
28Adam Thielen (MIN)WR
29Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
30Travis Kelce (KC)TE
1Mike Trout (LAA)CF
2Mookie Betts (BOS)RF
3Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
4Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
5Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
6Bryce Harper (WSH)RF
7Manny Machado (BAL)3B
8Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B,3B
9Corey Kluber (CLE)SP
10Jose Ramirez (CLE)2B,3B
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11Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
12J.D. Martinez (BOS)RF
13Chris Sale (BOS)SP
14Carlos Correa (HOU)SS
15Trea Turner (WSH)SS
16Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)1B
17Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
18Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)RF
19Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
20Aaron Judge (NYY)RF
21Joey Votto (CIN)1B
22Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
23Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
24George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
25Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B,2B
26Luis Severino (NYY)SP
27Gerrit Cole (HOU)SP
28Andrew Benintendi (BOS)LF,CF
29Jose Abreu (CWS)1B
30Gary Sanchez (NYY)C
1Kevin Durant (GSW)SF,PF
2Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
3James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
4Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
5Russell Westbrook (OKC)PG
6Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
7Anthony Davis (NOR)PF,C
8Kawhi Leonard (SAS)SG,SF
9LeBron James (CLE)SF,PF
10Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
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11John Wall (WAS)PG
12DeMarcus Cousins (NOR)PF,C
13Chris Paul (HOU)PG
14Damian Lillard (POR)PG
15Jimmy Butler (MIN)SG,SF
16Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
17Kyrie Irving (BOS)PG,SG
18Hassan Whiteside (MIA)C,PF
19Myles Turner (IND)PF,C
20Paul George (OKC)SG,SF
21Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
22Draymond Green (GSW)SF,PF
23Kristaps Porzingis (NYK)PF,C
24Kemba Walker (CHA)PG
25CJ McCollum (POR)PG,SG
26Mike Conley (MEM)PG
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Klay Thompson (GSW)SG,SF
29Marc Gasol (MEM)C
30Gordon Hayward (BOS)SG,SF