Every year, we want to trust our eyes. Whether it be Allen Robinson being able to repeat his 14-touchdown season from 2015, or expecting Amari Cooper to take a big leap in the touchdown department. We watch these players, expecting them to outperform what always happens in the end – regression to the mean. There will always be exceptions to every rule, and we always feel like we can point them out, but what about when we take the emotion out of watching the players? What happens then?

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Going to my data collection, I wanted this question answered. If you were to have asked me who the top-10 touchdown regression candidates were going to be in 2016, here is the list of players that my data would have spit out: Ted Ginn, Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald, Seth Roberts, John Brown, Donte Moncrief, Devin Funchess, Jeremy Maclin, Anquan Boldin, and Tavon Austin. Now, let’s take a look at how many touchdowns they scored in both seasons and if it really worked out like the numbers said it would.

As you can see, the only players who scored more touchdowns were Donte Moncrief (scored just one more) and Anquan Boldin (all he did was score touchdowns). Looking at Boldin’s increase, it’s large in part to him going to the Lions and seeing targets from Matthew Stafford. Everyone else performed almost exactly as they were expected to. Now let’s take a look at the top-10 touchdown regression candidates the data spits out for 2017.

1. Jordy Nelson (GB – WR)
This one is tough for most to swallow, but Nelson actually scored more than 25 points over his expectation in 2016. After looking at No. 2 on this list, you’ll see that maybe it’s just Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers duo isn’t going to score as many touchdowns in 2017.

2. Davante Adams (GB – WR)
Adams is an easy one to spot as a regression candidate, as he was the only top-13 wide receiver without 1,000 yards receiving. The fact that he was all the way up at No. 7 should give you an idea as to how touchdown-dependent his season was. Dial back expectations for him this year.

3. Rishard Matthews (TEN – WR)
Keep in mind that this is without the additions of Corey Davis and Eric Decker, as Matthews caught nine touchdowns on 108 targets. The Titans have built their offensive line to run the ball, and the additions of Davis and Decker hurt in the red zone more than anywhere else. Matthews is sure to regress in 2017 and I don’t think anyone would/should debate that.

4. Donte Moncrief (IND – WR)
Moncrief is one of the two players to pop up on the list twice, so you have to wonder if he’s just that good, or did lightning strike twice? In 2015, Moncrief saw five targets inside the five-yard-line and scored three touchdowns. In 2016, he saw six targets inside the five, and scored on every single one. The only other player who’s been able to sustain this type of efficiency over his career is Dez Bryant. Volume may make up for his regression, though.

5. Sterling Shepard (NYG – WR)
It was an impressive rookie season for Shepard, who scored eight touchdowns on 105 targets. What makes that number even more impressive is that Eli Manning had what was arguably his worst NFL season in 2016. Shepard’s season obviously wasn’t impressive enough, though, as the Giants went out and acquired Brandon Marshall via free agency and Evan Engram in the draft, making it a near lock that Shepard regresses.

6. Doug Baldwin (SEA – WR)
This wouldn’t have been a player I expected to be on the list, but here we are. After his 2015 season netted 14 touchdowns, we knew regression would set it, and it did, but apparently not enough. It’s likely because he saw just 16 red zone targets, which ranked as the 17th-most in the league, typically not enough to reach eight touchdowns.

7. Mike Evans (TB – WR)
This one is somewhat shocking, considering the volume that Evans saw in 2016. But regardless of who you are, it’s difficult to score 12 touchdowns in any given season, regardless of how many targets you see. Looking forward to 2017, the Bucs have added quite a few pieces that could take away a few endzone targets. Between DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin, don’t be shocked to see Evans drop down the touchdown ranks.

8. Michael Thomas (NO – WR)
It seems like a lot of the receivers on this list play with great quarterbacks, which is likely the reason they scored more than expected, but still, scoring nine touchdowns while ranking 20th in targets is a tough thing to do. With Adrian Peterson added to the mix, maybe the Saints start to run a bit more inside the red zone.

9. Cole Beasley (DAL – WR)
In terms of where Beasley was targeted on the field, that’s where this projection comes from. Despite having just five touchdowns (career-high), Beasley is very likely to regress in 2017. Sure, he had 98 targets last year, but just eight of them were inside the redzone. That ranked 71st in the NFL and no player below him scored more than three touchdowns.

10. Dez Bryant (DAL – WR)
Prior to getting hurt in the 2015 season, Bryant would be on this list practically every year. He’s the one player who’s hard to predict regression for, as he’s scored at least 12 touchdowns in every season where he’s played 16 games. But if there were one season to get on board with regression, it’s 2017 when his schedule is littered with shutdown cornerbacks (read more on Bryant here).

Others who are prime regression candidates just outside the top-10: Michael Crabtree, Kenny Britt, J.J. Nelson

If you’ve missed any of the Player Profiles that have gone up, you can see the full list right here.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.