Earlier this summer, I posted the visualization below on Twitter that asked the question, “Are your RBs sensitive to game flow?” One of the most frustrating situations in fantasy football is watching your stud two-down RB sip Gatorade on the sideline as his team abandons the run early in a tough game. Simultaneously, the rise of the RB platoon and the increase in passing percentage on all downs across the league has limited the value of even the best two-down RBs.
One more for this week using @FantasyPros projections… Is your RB corps “game flow proof” or not? @MikeTagliereNFL @bobbyfantasypro pic.twitter.com/0UdwP1KkLy
— David McDougald (@DavidMcDou) June 21, 2017
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To dig into the riskiest two-down backs a bit further, I used Vegas win totals and a ratio of rushing to receiving yards using FantasyPros July 20 projections for 2017. The visualization below includes 29 of the projected top 30 RBs in standard scoring (excludes Mike Gillislee who is highly one-dimensional and on a great team, literally off this chart).
Only three RBs are projected to have a greater than a four to one ratio of rushing to receiving yards and are on a team projected to win six or less games. They are noted in red.
Let’s take closer look at Jordan Howard, Leonard Fournette, and Carlos Hyde to see if we really should be concerned with the downside of drafting a one-dimensional RB on a bad team…
Jordan Howard (RB – CHI): ADP RB #9
Howard cemented his status as a true two-down back during his breakout 2016 campaign by leading the league in dropped passes at the RB position. With Mike Glennon likely starting the season at QB without Alshon Jeffery and minimal overall talent at WR remaining (some would argue for Kevin White), Howard can expect to see a high percentage of eight-man boxes throughout the year.
He’s now the Bears’ number one option on what looks to be a poor unit and defenses will gameplan accordingly. Howard’s floor is good if he gets 250 touches or more but the Bears are projected to only win five-to-six games, so the quantity of red zone opportunities and quality game flow will be lacking, and you’ll have to spend a top 24 pick to snag him.
Recommendation: In standard scoring leagues, Howard is being drafted at his ceiling and in PPR leagues he’s being overvalued. I don’t find myself owning any shares of Howard this season.
Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC): ADP RB #12
Excellent rookie seasons from Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard have paved the way for aggressive projections for Leonard Fournette in his rookie season. As an LSU graduate, I’ve got a soft spot for Fournette as I’ve seen the magic in person, but I’ve also seen Fournette struggle when he doesn’t have clear lanes and the opportunity to gain a head of steam.
The game footage from each of the last LSU-Alabama matchups highlights this fact. The Jaguars only had eight rushing touchdowns in the entirety of 2016 and a dominant college back isn’t going to cure all ills. With that being said, Fournette could lead all rookies in touches by a wide margin with 220-240 carries and up to 300 total touches.
Recommendation: Much like Jordan Howard, Fournette’s current ADP is more closely aligned with his upside than expected value. Fournette’s receiving ability is currently underestimated and was restricted by the scheme in college, not talent. If the Jags tap into this, he may return ADP value, but I suspect recent rookie success has inflated his projections.
Carlos Hyde (RB – SF): ADP RB #16
Of the three players I’ve decided to highlight in this article, Hyde has potentially the worst situation despite being the 49ers’ best offensive weapon. According to Pro Football Focus, Hyde had the best Elusive Rating in the NFL last year and was largely the victim of horrid run-blocking, arguably the worst in the league.
Despite that, it’s clear Shanahan doesn’t think Hyde fits his scheme and went out and handpicked Joe Williams to be his back of the future. Regardless of whether Hyde is the 49ers’ best running back (he is), it’s hard to project just how quickly Shanahan starts to balance the load or even give the nod to Williams. Atlanta tried to force Tevin Coleman over Devonta Freeman last year and talent eventually won out but there’s no guarantee that this will happen here.
Recommendation: Hyde has made my “avoid at all costs” list at this point of the summer. At best, he’s the best RB in a committee. At worst, the 49ers put him in a secondary role and he has an uneventful contract year.
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David McDougald is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMcDou.
