Would you pay $100,000 for an 81′ Honda? No, of course not. But it is an 81′ Honda, how dare you! Even so, it isn’t logical to spend that kind of money on a vehicle that you know isn’t worth it and will never return its value. So why would you overpay in fantasy football? Sure the players don’t have prices on them that say “Buy Now” but all of them have the fine print. The fine print is the stories and news that we hear and see all offseason combined with the history of a player. The players below are currently being overvalued at their current ADP (Average Draft Position) and should not be targeted in drafts this season.

In order to qualify as a running back Bust, the players must have an ADP at or below RB24. Check out FantasyPros Consensus Running Back Rankings to see who qualifies.

Combine rankings from 100+ experts into one consensus cheat sheet

Jay Ajayi (MIA): ADP RB9

Ajayi had a breakout season in 2016 which is why he is currently going as RB7 on FantasyPros ECR and as RB9 in consensus ADP. If you just look at the end-of-season numbers you would think Ajayi was a stud for the entire year, but after watching the film, my conclusion was very different. Ajayi had three games last season with over 200 rushing yards, two of which came against the Bills. Those three games accounted for 49 percent of his total rushing yards on the season. In the other 13 games, he averaged only 3.7 YPC and 8.3 PPR fantasy points per game. In comparison, 62 running backs in 2016 averaged more than 8.3 PPR points per game.

Below you will find a breakdown of how often Ajayi finished as an RB1, RB2, RB3, and RB4 or worse.

• RB1: 4 weeks
• RB2: 3 weeks
• RB3: 5 weeks
• RB4 or worse: 4 weeks

That is far from a reliable running back in fantasy football. Combine that with his injury history before he entered the NFL and why he fell in the real NFL Draft. If the offensive line for the Dolphins can stay healthy which is a major if, Ajayi has a chance to return value, but I am not willing to take on the uncertainty that is Jay Ajayi in 2017.

Jordan Howard (CHI): ADP RB8

It’s probably safe to say I will not be getting an invite to Howard’s birthday party this year with all my offseason talk about how he will suffer a sophomore slump. Wouldn’t you know it, I get a chance to talk fantasy football running back busts and Howard finds himself on the list again. My mind hasn’t changed in regard to Howard as I tagged him as a bust in what feels like forever ago, back in an early July article 9 Fantasy Football Busts for 2017.

Howard is a good running back. That’s the thing, though, he is only a good running back not a great one while being drafted as RB8 this season. I expect the Bears to be in the bottom five in regards to offense, and for a running back who isn’t a tremendous athlete, I think he will struggle. Howard is in the 32nd percentile according to SPARQ and his athletic weaknesses are highlighted when he faces eight or more in the box. He averaged a below average 3.4 YPC against stacked boxes in 2016, and I expect him to see plenty in 2017. With his touchdowns being limited he needs a massive workload which isn’t out of the range of possibilities, but it’s the only positive I can find on Howard which is why he will be a bust in 2017.

Carlos Hyde (SF): ADP RB16

Hyde is priced as RB14 in ECR and RB16 for ADP which seems like a good value for a player with the upside he possesses, but once you examine his team situation and history, is it really still looking like gold? The 49ers are far from fantasy gold. Honestly, they are more like fools gold to me. Do you really want to mine for gold in an area surrounded by fools gold?

If there is one thing gold and Hyde have in common it’s how soft he is. Hyde has missed 12 games the last two seasons and even when he has played he has been hampered by injuries. In the 20 games he was able to play, he rushed for more than 100 yards only three times and 50% of the time had under 4.0 YPC.

Getting your name engraved into a beautiful gold fantasy trophy requires finding players who play well down the stretch of the season carrying you through the fantasy playoffs. Hyde isn’t able to carry you when it matters most because he is hurt at the end of the year. Check out Hyde’s career splits in the months of September/October compared to November/December.

• September/October: 272 carries 11 touchdowns
• November/December: 143 carries two touchdowns

What good is a player if he isn’t there for you the most important time of the year? Now, combine everything I said with the questions marks surrounding Hyde’s role on the team. Do yourself a favor and forget about Hyde this year. I’m worried you will pay for gold but get fooled instead.

Marshawn Lynch (OAK): ADP RB12

A trap that drafters can fall into is taking a player based on name value. The only explanation for Marshawn Lynch being RB12 in ADP that I can come up with is name value. Sure, the situation on the Raiders is good with their offense and offensive line, but let’s not forget that last season Lynch retired! If you look at 2015 you will notice he played in only seven games. In those seven games, he had 111 carries for 417 yards (3.8 YPC) and three touchdowns.

Lynch dealt with injuries the entire 2015 season, and I’m sure a year off helped his body recover, but am I the only person who thinks he looks a little out of shape this offseason? Running backs who enter camp out of shape often get injured. This is not what I want to see from a running back who has 2,144 career rush attempts and is a violent runner like Lynch. Even Beast Mode started to break down in 2015, and I worry it will happen again this season. Even if he manages to play the entire season I don’t expect him to be a three-down running back.

His backups DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard are solid options. Both averaged over 5.4 YPC last season and both are good pass catchers who fit the style of offense the Raiders run very well. I have a feeling Lynch won’t get a heavy workload as he splits time with the two other running backs as the Raiders save him for a Super Bowl run this year.

David Johnson (ARI) or Le’Veon Bell (PIT) or Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): ADP RB1, RB2, RB3

Before everyone overreacts to this, I am not saying that all three of these running backs will be a bust. I’m simply saying that history suggests at least one of these running backs will, in fact, be a bust. Every year since 2004 at least one of the top three consensus running backs has finished outside the top 10 at RB.

The list is below.

• Adrian Peterson (2016)
• Todd Gurley (2016)
• Le’Veon Bell (2015)
• Jamaal Charles (2015)
• LeSean McCoy (2014)
• Doug Martin (2013)
• LeSean McCoy (2012)
• Chris Johnson (2011)
• Jamaal Charles (2011)
• Maurice Jones-Drew (2010)
• Michael Turner (2009)
• Frank Gore (2008)
• Larry Johnson (2007)
• Steven Jackson (2007)
• Shaun Alexander (2006)
• Priest Holmes (2005)
• Priest Holmes (2004)
• Ahman Green (2004)

Will this trend continue in 2017? If it does who will it be between David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott? I hope the trend stops, but history does have a way of repeating itself. Am I saying don’t draft any of the top three running backs? Of course not, it’s just something to be aware of.

What I am saying is don’t waste your time or money on the first four running backs above. It simply doesn’t make “cents.”

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Mitchell Renz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mitchell, check out his archive and follow him on twitter @MitchellRenz365.