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6 Players to Buy Low/Sell High

6 Players to Buy Low/Sell High

The MLB trade deadline has passed, but that doesn’t mean your fantasy league’s deadline has—or maybe it has, and you just enjoy reading my articles anyway. Assuming you’re part of the former group, there are still trades to be made as the real deadline approaches. This could be the time of year when you make or break your team, but by trading for or trading away the following players, you can prepare your team for the stretch run.

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Buy Lows

Jed Lowrie (2B – OAK)
A popular name to be moved at the trade deadline, Lowrie is staying in Oakland, at least for now. But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t warrant a trade in your fantasy league. He hasn’t seen the results of late, but he’s still been playing extremely well. Since July 17, despite just a .299 wOBA, his xwOBA is over 100 points higher at .420. Much of this can be explained by bad luck in the batted ball department, as his BABIP over that stretch is just .222, giving him a batting average of .205 instead of the Statcast-expected .336.

More than just the bad luck, Lowrie has improved his plate discipline. He’s walked in 20.4 percent of his plate appearances since July 17 and struck out in just 6.1 percent of them. His BB/K of 3.3 during that time is second-highest among players with at least 25 plate appearances. There’s no guarantee that he maintains his improved plate discipline. In fact, he probably won’t if his career numbers are any indication. But even if he regresses a little, he’ll still be above average in that department, and as his .420 xwOBA shows, he’s more than capable of doing some damage on offense.

Tyler Flowers (C – ATL)
Since July 18, there are 343 batters with at least 10 recorded exit velocities. None of them have hit the ball harder, on average, than Flowers. That’s not just catchers—that’s all players. His average exit velocity since then is 96.5 mph, bringing up his season-long average to 89.8 mph. He has a hit in every game he’s played in over that stretch, although because of his lack of counting stats, some may not notice the way that he’s been killing the ball recently.

His wOBA over that time is .465, although even that’s apparently low, as his xwOBA is .487, second-highest among players with at least 20 at-bats. He’s also not getting extremely lucky in other regards, with just a .333 BABIP and a 28.6 percent HR/FB rate. There’s no reason those numbers can’t stay where they are, and even if his exit velocity drops a little, he could easily post a .400 wOBA the rest of the way, as his current season number is .369. This guy is one of the best offensive (and defensive) catchers in the game, but he’s not being treated like it.

Jon Gray (SP – COL)
The owner of a 5.52 ERA for the year, it’s easy to say Gray’s underperformed this season. However, he’s been even worse over his past four games, allowing 17 runs over just 20 innings on his way to a 7.65 ERA. Three of those four games actually came on the road, so Coors Field can’t even be blamed.

Over those four games, though, he’s been extremely unlucky. He owns a .407 BABIP, 59.9 percent strand rate, and 19.0 percent HR/FB rate, just to highlight a few areas. His FIP for the games is a much more respectable 4.45, and his xFIP is 3.72.

Of course, you could say that about his entire season as well. His ERA is 5.52, but he also has a 3.86 FIP and 3.66 xFIP largely because of those three factors. Other than that, his numbers look very similar to last year. He’s still striking out and walking similar numbers of batters, and he’s actually been getting more groundballs. If you believed in Gray last year, there’s no reason you shouldn’t this year. The numbers show he’s been getting unlucky, especially on the road, and he presents a great buy-low opportunity.

Sell Highs

Eric Thames (1B/OF – MIL)
Almost everything I want to say about Eric Thames can probably be summed up in this graph:

Or this one:

Neither of those look particularly encouraging, and they’re not. All of the improved plate discipline that Thames showed in his return to America is gone, and he looks for all intents and purposes like the player he was when he left.

Now, that doesn’t mean you need to go out and drop him—he’s still been at least somewhat productive. He has 10 home runs since June 1, managing an OBP of .309 despite a .217 batting average. His wRC+ over that time is 91, so he’s been slightly below average, but it’s not like he’s been Alcides Escobar.

That being said, if there is still someone in your league who remembers his crazy early-season numbers and wants to buy him as a top-10 first baseman/outfielder, you should be more than willing to part with him. There’s no sign of this trend slowing down, and if Thames isn’t hitting a home run every other game or walking 15 percent of the time, he’s not worth it.

Gerardo Parra (OF – COL)
Projected to take on an everyday role now that Ian Desmond is injured, Parra makes for an intriguing option for at least the next couple of weeks. He’d been playing well previously, as he has carried a .467 batting average since June 1 to go with a .482 OBP, .653 SLG, and a .470 wOBA. Unfortunately, as it is so often, his success can be attributed to BABIP.

48.5 percent of his balls in play since June 1 have fallen for hits, easily tops in the league among players with at least 80 plate appearances. According to Statcast, his expected batting average over that stretch is just .295, a stark contrast to his actual numbers.

There’s really not much else to explore here, as his inflated BABIP explains most of his success. I will say that he’s only struck out in 10.6 percent of his plate appearances during that time, which has also helped him, but his walk rate is too low for that to boost his line too much. Hopefully, Parra’s bat can stay hot for the next week or so as he plays every day so that his perceived value will continue to rise, increasing the potential return you can get for him.

Lance Lynn (SP – STL)
For the month of July, Lynn has a 1.47 ERA. He’s also pitched at least six innings in five of his six starts. There’s no doubt he’s been good, and while not as impressive, his FIP of 3.37 backs that up. Lance Lynn has been good for the past month.

Or has he? Yes, his FIP is low but still higher than his ERA due to a high strand rate (84.8 percent) and low BABIP (.238). I can’t imagine anybody complaining about a 3.37 ERA though if that’s where his true talent lied.

The one number missing from that, though, is his HR/FB Rate, which is at 5.0 percent for the month despite a 20.0 percent mark through June. That’s not how regression is supposed to work—he’s not expected to have a lower-than-average rate going forward just because it was higher than average previously. If anything, it’s the opposite. That low HR/FB rate, combined with his nearly 40 percent fly ball rate, has ballooned his xFIP up to 4.60 for the month, certainly less appealing than either of his other two numbers. His full-season FIP and xFIP are 4.83 and 4.57 as well, so it’s tough to see him keeping this up.


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Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.

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