6 Players to Buy Low/Sell High

Well, this is it. Your fantasy baseball trade deadline is fast approaching, meaning this may be the last chance you have to improve your team through a trade. Even though there’s only a month and a half left in the season, there are still plenty of opportunities where a player is over- or undervalued based on the numbers he’s put up this season or as of late. And, with the deadline coming up, it’s more important than ever to make the necessary trades to help your team make its playoff push or give it the ammunition it needs to finish strong down the stretch.

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Buy Low

Aaron Judge (NYY – OF)

No, the fact that this is the last edition of this piece isn’t making me crazy – I’ve always been this way. The concept of Judge being a buy-low is, I’m sure, outrageous, as he’s the top-ranked outfielder in the majors. But there’s been talk of a demise in the second half, whether it’s due to the Home Run Derby or not (it’s not).

After posting a .466 wOBA and 198 wRC+ in the first half of the season, those numbers are just .299 and 83 since the break. His strikeout rate is up 27 percent, and he’s hitting 23 percent fewer line drives. All those numbers are cause for concern, although the real problem has been his streak of incredible luck ending. His BABIP and HR/FB rate were .426 and 41.7 percent, respectively. Those numbers have dropped to .234 and 21.4 percent.

While he was never going to maintain those first-half rates, the numbers he’s putting up now are similarly not indicative of his true talent. According to Statcast, Judge’s expected wOBA in the second half is .364. Rumors of his demise are, at least partially, the media needing something to focus on. The adjustments pitchers have made will make it difficult for him to win MVP, but he should still be treated as a top-five outfielder. It may take a lot to get him, but now could be the only chance you have.

Matt Kemp (ATL – OF)

Don’t look now, but Kemp is scheduled to be activated from the disabled list on Friday. It may be difficult to remember given the struggles he had after the All-Star Break and the injury he suffered, but this is a player who put up a 112 wRC+ in the first half of the season to go with a .293/.340/.486 slash line and .347 wOBA. Things fell apart after the break, with his wOBA dropping to .311.

You’ve been reading me long enough to know where this is going (or even if you haven’t, you can probably guess). Despite that .311 second-half wOBA, his xwOBA is .369. Before his injury, he was striking out less than he did in the first half, but he was hampered by a .302 BABIP that would be nearly 40 points below his career rate.

Because Kemp hasn’t produced with consistency in over a month now, his owner may have forgotten the type of numbers he is capable of. That makes it the perfect opportunity to buy low on a player capable of helping you during the stretch run.

Jimmy Nelson (SP – MIL)

Nelson’s second half has not been great, especially when you throw in his most recent game. He has a 4.95 ERA in 36 innings since the break, and he’s allowed multiple runs in all but one start. That’s one way to look at it. There are others.

For example, you could also say he’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his six starts. Or that he’s striking out 29.1 percent of batters and allowing a wOBA of .298, less than his first-half number of .308.

The problem, unexpectedly, has been luck. He’s allowing a BABIP of .348 in the second half and a strand rate of just 62.8 percent. Looking at his underlying metrics, he has a 3.05 FIP and 2.74 xFIP since the break. He’ still the same pitcher he was earlier, just with a couple of recent bad starts.

Sell Highs

Eduardo Nunez (2B/3B/SS/OF – BOS)

Even with Dustin Pedroia’s latest injury guaranteeing Nunez additional playing time, don’t expect him to keep putting up the numbers he has since he’s arrived in Boston. He has a .446 wOBA and 180 wRC+ since being traded, numbers that are significantly better than anything else he’s ever put up. He’s striking out nearly twice as often as he was with the Giants, and the only reason he’s been able to maintain a .382 average is because of his .415 BABIP during that stretch.

In addition to his improved average, his power is up as well since the move to the east coast. After hitting four home runs in 76 games with the Giants, he’s already hit four in 14 games with the Red Sox. The obvious explanation here is his 22.2 percent HR/FB rate, four times as high as what he was putting up in San Francisco. Now, AT&T Park kills home runs, but this is still a player who’s never exceeded a 10.2 percent HR/FB rate over the course of a full season. I wouldn’t expect that to change now, and him even reaching 12 home runs could be a stretch.

Tim Beckham (1B/2B/SS – BAL)

I wrote about Beckham last week, so if you already read that, feel free to skip him here. Most of what makes him a sell high hasn’t changed from a week ago. He has a .448 BABIP since the break. He’s hitting fewer line drives. He’s hitting the ball more softly. All of that adds up to a .329 xwOBA, which compares very unfavorably to his actual .425 number.

Also, lest we forget, Orioles manager Buck Showalter has said the starting shortstop job belongs to J.J. Hardy when he returns. While he’s taking longer than expected to return to the lineup, it’s still likely that he does so this season, which would leave Beckham without a starting job. It’ll be difficult for him to put up numbers when he’s not even getting to the plate.

Lance Lynn (SP – STL)

Another player who’s made previous editions of this piece, Lynn is still getting results that aren’t in line with his underlying metrics. In six games since the All-Star break, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in all of them and has gone at least six innings, good for an ERA of 1.73.

Also during that time, he’s had three or fewer strikeouts three times and has combined to strike out just 24 batters in those 36 1/3 innings. While his strikeouts are low, his walks are high, as he’s allowed 16 free passes during that time as well. Those numbers give him a K/BB rate of 1.5, ninth lowest in the majors in the second half.

An 87.1 percent strand rate has helped him to avoid the damage, as has a 5.4 percent HR/FB rate. Neither of those numbers are sustainable, and I would expect Lynn to pitch closer to his 3.85 FIP and 4.94 xFIP going forward.