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Buy or Sell: 10 Hyped Up Players (Fantasy Football)

Buy or Sell: 10 Hyped Up Players (Fantasy Football)

Last year, all the hype was about Ezekiel Elliott and boy did he live up to it. Each season, whether it’s a rookie, veteran, running back, wide receiver, etc., there is no shortage of chatter during training camps that make it seem like we’re about to witness the second coming of Jerry Rice or Barry Sanders.

Hype can be overblown though with so much noise and it’s easy to confuse reality versus a beat writer trying to pump out story after story. For fantasy purposes, we need to read between the lines and look deeper so we’re asking our featured pundits to tell us what they’re buying and selling.

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Pick Recap:

Expert Buying the Hype Selling the Hype
Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac) Ty Montgomery (RB – GB) Marshawn Lynch (RB – OAK)
Adam Pfeifer (RotoCurve) Terrelle Pryor (WR – WSH) Brandin Cooks (WR – NE)
Kelly Smelser (Punch Drunk Wonderland) Marlon Mack (RB – IND) Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) Jameis Winston (QB – TB) Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
Bob Lung (Big Guy Fantasy Sports) Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN) Mike Evans (WR – TB)

 
Q1. What one player is currently over-hyped and tell us why he’ll disappoint fantasy owners this season.

Marshawn Lynch (RB – OAK)
“Lynch strikes me as a guy who is currently being overvalued by the fantasy football community. With recent news of the Raiders trying to cap the Skittles man at 200 touches, the prognosis is now much darker. Being drafted 24th overall and as the 12th running back, the pride of Oakland, CA is seemingly being drafted at his ceiling with no concern for his downside after being out of the league for a year and struggling the season prior to his brief retirement. Latavius Murray finished as RB13 in this offense last year, but even he received 228 touches last season. ADP point expectations for the RB12 draft slot over the last four seasons is 172.9 points. To reach that threshold, at 170 carries even at his career best 5.0 yards per carry, with 30 receptions at his best 10.2 yards per catch average, Marshawn would have to score ten touchdowns to meet his point expectations. All of that is at his career bests, imagine for a second that Lynch is more average than the beast mode we remember.”
– Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)

Brandin Cooks (WR – NE)
“Cooks as WR12 is just too high for me. I understand that the situation in New England is exciting, but he was already playing with an elite quarterback in a better passing offense that saw more volume. So why are we suddenly assuming he’s in a BETTER situation? Drew Brees and Tom Brady are both quarterbacks who spread the ball around, but the Saints called pass 63.4 percent of the time (5th), while New England called pass 56.4 percent of the time (27th). Now there is more competition for targets, and since 2011, the Patriots have had just one wideout to post 1,100 yards and eight or more touchdowns.”
– Adam Pfeifer (RotoCurve)

Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
“While I loved Tyreek Hill’s emergence in the second half of last season, there is a very good chance that he will be a big disappointment for fantasy owners who are overvaluing him in 2017. Hill found success last year in a particular role. A role in which he had big play opportunities, but he also wasn’t seeing coverage as if he were a team’s No. 1 receiver. With Maclin out the door, the team is left relatively thin at WR and they are expecting Hill to rise to true WR1 stature. He’s going to have to make huge strides to make that happen. In 2016 he saw less than 45% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps and his production was largely based on situational football and making the most out of defensive mismatches. He will have big moments, but I am expecting him to struggle in the role of a No. 1 receiver. Hill is currently ranked #27 in the consensus WR rankings and I’m seeing many people reach for him too high in drafts. Unless Kansas City finds some truly innovative ways to create opportunities for him as their top receiver, I expect Hill to be somewhat of a disappointment in 2017.”
– Kelly Smelser (Punch Drunk Wonderland)

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
“I love the guy’s talent and I see the upside in PPR leagues, but in standard leagues, I think he’s being over drafted. He could eventually be a stud, but as things stand he’s still behind Jonathan Stewart, and Cam Newton is still going to run the ball. I’m not saying he doesn’t hold value or can’t be useful, but I think people will be a little disappointed in his rookie season.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

Mike Evans (WR – TB)
“Evans will not give you the consistency that you need from a first round pick. His ADP of WR4 / pick 7 overall is absurd! He ranked 13th in consistency last year and there are more weapons in Tampa this year, so don’t be that guy.”
– Bob Lung (Big Guy Fantasy Sports)

Q2. Who is a player deservedly receiving hype that fantasy owners should buy into?

Ty Montgomery (RB – GB)
“Montgomery is deserving of all the hype we can throw at him. In his first full season as a running back, he will show that all the hype we throw his way is worth it. The underlying metrics for Montgomery are off the charts. He is in the 91st percentile burst score that measures zero-inertia explosiveness from PlayerProfiler, and it showed as he averaged the sixth best yards per touch in the entire league. We know the converted wide receiver can shine as a pass catcher out of the backfield, but he also shined running from the shotgun formation picking up 347 yards on 53 carries. That’s a 6.5 yard per rush, one of the best marks in the league. 9.1% of Montgomery’s carries went for over 15 yards last season, and he was one of the best runners in the league after contact and at breaking tackles. With Aaron Rodgers throwing the rock, and plentiful weapons on the outside, Montgomery should continue to see light boxes to run through, making him a player completely deserving of the hype.”
– Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)

Terrelle Pryor (WR – WSH)
“Pryor has been one of the most polarizing players in fantasy, and the hype is real. However, I’m okay with it. Last year, he caught passes from six different quarterbacks and still posted 77/1,041/4, while 27 percent of his passes were deemed off target. Now he’s in Washington with one of the best aerial attacks in the league, while over 35 percent of their targets from last year need replacing.”
– Adam Pfeifer (RotoCurve)

Marlon Mack (RB – IND)
“We’re going to call this one a homer pick if you like. I am very interested in seeing what happens with rookie running back in the Colts’ offense. The Colts have a number of question marks after overhauling a good chunk of their roster in the offseason. The biggest question mark is surrounding whether Andrew Luck will be on the field to start the season and then what that offense will look like. Luck is a playmaker and the passing game will continue to produce, but where the Colts struggle the most is in the run game. Sure, the aging Frank Gore reached 1,000 yards on the ground in 2016, but he isn’t going to be breaking big plays. This is where Mack becomes and intriguing piece of the team’s backfield. He’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield and can make defenders miss in space. He could be the big play back who can fit in that joker role that the Colts have been needing. It’s still early in training camp and he is an untested rookie. But, at RB59 in the consensus rankings, Mack could be a late round gem.”
– Kelly Smelser (Punch Drunk Wonderland)

Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
“We’ve seen mostly flashes to this point, but Winston is a gamer who is really starting to get it. We saw glimpses of it the past two years but with D-Jax and O.J. Howard added to the mix, I think 2017 is where Winston really takes off. He’s a top-10 threat.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football)

Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN)
“Mariota’s ADP is currently in the top 10 and it should be. His consistency ranked him #8 last season and the Titans added more weapons in the passing game for 2017. Buy the hype, he’s worth it!”
– Bob Lung (Big Guy Fantasy Sports)

Thank you to the experts for naming their who they’re buying and selling. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice and check out our latest podcast below.


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