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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (8/18)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (8/18)

Tonight should produce some jaw-dropping point totals. The main slate features two of the best pitchers in MLB with Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber getting the ball for their respective clubs, and there are some other top-flight pitchers getting the ball, too. On the flip side of the coin, there are some terrible pitchers on the bump and games in Texas and Colorado tonight, so there should be plenty of offense as well. Below, I make my pick between the two aces and feature a sub-$6,000 SP2 option to pair with him who will help free up some salary for exposure to the high-scoring hitting options. There are a couple other pitchers who I’m intrigued by as a high-ceiling pairing alternative to the ace and bargain SP2 combo I’ve alluded to.

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Pitchers

Max Scherzer (WAS): $14,100 @ Padres
Last time I wrote about Mad Max, mother nature rained him off the slate I was discussing. I’m going back to the well with Scherzer again. He’s been nothing short of amazing this year. Among qualified pitchers this season, he ranks second in ERA (2.25), third in FIP (2.83), fourth in xFIP (3.06), third in SIERA (2.74), first in WHIP (0.85), third in strikeout rate (35.7%) and K-BB% (29.4%), and second in SwStr% (15.9%), according to FanGraphs. Among pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched this year, he ranks second in DRA (2.22), per Baseball Prospectus. Fellow ace Kluber ranks near or above him in a number of those categories, but Scherzer’s matchup at the Padres gets him the edge over Kluber at the Royals. San Diego ranks 24th in wRC+ (88), 27th in wOBA (.306), and has the second highest strikeout rate (25.3%) against righties this year. They’ve also been dreadful in their pitcher-friendly home park ranking tied for 24th in wRC+ (90) and 28th in wOBA (.304) at home while tallying the third highest strikeout rate (24.7%). The Nationals and Scherzer are -195 favorites in a game with an over/under total of only seven runs, according to Pinnacle. Scherzer’s ceiling is legitimately 40-plus points tonight.

Dallas Keuchel (HOU): $10,400 vs. Athletics
If you’re spinning off of Scherzer’s huge ceiling, I think the right move is to nab a pair of high-upside arms. Keuchel is the SP1 in my preferred alternative pairing to Scherzer and the forthcoming bargain arm. After a run of three poor showings since his activation from the disabled list in late July, Keuchel was solid in his last start allowing just one earned run on six hits, three walks, and seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings at Texas. The Rangers are a fearsome offense at home, so his work in a tough environment makes the showing all the more impressive. The southpaw is at home tonight, and that’s important since he has a notable home/road split this year and in recent seasons. Since 2015, Keuchel has spun a 2.17 ERA (2.52 FIP and 2.68 xFIP), 0.96 WHIP, 5.6% BB%, and 24.8% K% in 249.0 innings pitched at home. He and the Astros are -228 favorites, and the game’s over/under total is nine runs. What cements Keuchel’s status as my preferred SP1 pivot to Scherzer is a matchup with the A’s. Oakland ranks tied for 22nd in wRC+ (87) and 26th in wOBA (.298) against southpaws this year while punching out at the sixth highest clip (24.7%) against lefties.

Zack Godley (ARI): $8,400 @ Twins
Godley’s surprising 2017 breakout continues, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. Over the last 30 days, he’s made five starts spanning 31.0 innings in which he’s recorded a 2.61 ERA (2.98 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, and 3.74 SIERA), 1.16 WHIP, 9.5% BB%, 27.6% K%, and a 14.1% SwStr%. He’s pitching like an ace, yet he’s not priced remotely close to like one. He and the Diamondbacks are small favorites at -117 in a game with an over/under total of nine runs. The Twins are a middle of the road offense against righties and aren’t the scariest of matchups.

Andrew Heaney (LAA): $5,400 @ Orioles
Heaney’s making his first start in The Show since undergoing Tommy John surgery last July. He’s made six rehab starts in the minors with his last three coming at the Triple-A level. In his three Triple-A starts in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, the lefty totaled 17.1 innings in which he recorded a 3.12 ERA (4.50 FIP and 4.79 xFIP), 1.21 WHIP, 5.7% BB%, 20.0% K%, and a 11.1% SwStr%, according to FanGraphs. His 11.1% SwStr% is up from his 10.2% mark in 14 starts at that level in 2015, and his control appears to be strong with a very good walk rate. Pitch count shouldn’t be a problem for him in his first start back in the Majors since he threw 94 pitches in seven innings in his last start, per MiLB.com. There’s without a doubt risk involved in using him in his first start back — in a hitter-friendly ballpark no less — but the O’s represent a high-upside matchup as a result of their 23.8% K% against lefties this year and middle of the pack wRC+ (96) against them.

Hitters

Lucas Duda (TB): $3,700 vs. Mariners
Maybe my perception is wrong, but it seems like Duda never gets the love he deserves. The left-handed hitting first baseman has been very good against right-handed pitching, and since 2015, he owns a .355 OBP, .245 ISO, and 127 wRC+ against them. He’s gotten off to a good start with the Rays with four homers, a .259 ISO, .366 OBP, and 134 wRC+ entering play yesterday. First base has no shortage of solid options, and I’d hazard a guess shiny new toy Rhys Hoskins ($3,600) and his homer binge will carry a higher ownership rate than Duda, making the Rays’ first baseman all the stronger of a GPP play. Duda has a great matchup against former Ray Erasmo Ramirez. The right-handed pitcher has ceded a .329 OBP, .523 SLG, and .357 wOBA to left-handed batters this year.

Yoan Moncada (CWS): $3,300 @ Rangers
Moncada hasn’t taken the Bigs by storm, but the switch-hitting infielder has acquitted himself well against righties with a .387 OBP, .204 ISO, 124 wRC+, 19.4% BB%, and 57.7% Hard% in the small sample of 62 plate appearances against them this season entering play yesterday. The fly in the ointment of Moncada’s numbers against righties is a ghastly 37.1% K%, but opposing starter Andrew Cashner is ill equipped to exploit the rookie’s swing-and-miss tendencies with just a 12.4% K% against lefties this year. He hit second yesterday against righty Tyson Ross, and hitting in the two-hole again tonight would enhance his value after spending a three-game stretch prior to yesterday hitting seventh twice and sixth once.

Joey Gallo (TEX): $5,200 vs. White Sox
Moncada’s Gallo-lite line against righties segues nicely to the TTO hero himself. James Shields has had no answer for left-handed batters allowing a .415 OBP, .672 SLG, .444 wOBA, and 13 homers to the 159 of them he’s faced while striking out only 15.7% of them. Shields’ massive struggles against lefties plays right into the hands of Gallo’s prodigious pop (.378 ISO against righties this year). The Rangers are -190 favorites in a game with an over/under total of 11.5 runs, so no one’s going to be sleeping on this contest. As opposed to spending up for a full stack, however, my preference is to grab two or three of the biggers pieces — namely Gallo and a forthcoming outfielder.

Nicky Delmonico (CWS): $2,700 @ Rangers
Delmonico is playing way above his minor-league numbers, but his hot start has resulted in him shooting up to the cleanup spot in the White Sox lineup. It’s not as if he was bad in the minors, and a .776 OPS against righties this year at the Triple-A level is serviceable after posting a .761 OPS at the same level against righties in 2016. Putting aside his hot streak, even if he’s viewed as just an average hitter against righties who’s slotted in the cleanup spot in a game with an over/under total of 11.5 runs (which leaves plenty of run scoring for the Pale Hose to do even as sizable dogs) at this park that makes him steal at under $3,000. The matchup is good, too. Cashner’s .298 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters this year is totally smoke and mirrors, and left-handed batters have ripped off a more desirable .337 wOBA against him in Texas this year.

Nomar Mazara (TEX): $4,700 vs. White Sox
Mazara has been a few ticks below a league-average hitter overall through two nearly full seasons in the Majors. He’s been excellent at home against righties, though, with a .371 OBP, .177 ISO, 157 wRC+, 27.0% LD%, and 36.2% LD% in 415 plate appearances at home against righties in his young career. He’s really exploded under those conditions this year with a .404 OBP, .238 ISO, 157 wRC+, 29.9% LD%, and 43.3% Hard%.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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